The art of the deal...Germany stops construction of LNG Terminal and blocks american LNG

[Tangmo]

German voters have two votes in a federal election, the next federal election being on Sunday, 26 September. The previous federal election was held on 24 Sept 2017.

First vote is for Direct Constituency Mandate by which a voter casts the ballot for the candidate by name and face. The constituency candidate with the most votes is guaranteed a seat in the Bundestag.

Second vote is for a political party: CDU, CSU, SPD, AfD, Der Linke/The Left; for whatever reason the polling never includes the FDP Free Democrats Party (?).

Current polling shows a big shift from the 2017 federal election outcomes to the coming federal election preferences and projections. Specifically, Greens show big gains among voters for seats in the national parliament while big loses for SPD are apparently underway.

Most recent polling: 9-13 April. Trends showing changes in Bundestag seats from the federal elections of 2017 vs. the coming election projections of seats to be chosen in September this year.

Green Party:
Direct Constituency Mandate = +36 Seats
Seats by Party Vote = +76 Seats
Seats change = +112

SPD:
Direct Constituency Mandate = -17
Seats by Party Vote = -83
Seats Change = -100

Union CDU/CSU:
Direct Constituency Mandate = -29
Party Vote = +5
Seats Change = -24

AfD:
Direct Constituency Mandate = +12
Party Vote = -4
Seats Change = +8

Der Linke/The Left:
Direct Constituency Mandate = -2
Party Vote = No Change (10)
Seats Change = -2


There's no balance sheet as it were to the German federal elections however. That is, the total of Direct Constituency votes does not equal the total vote for party. The difference between 'em is called the "Overhang Vote" in English.

Plus there's no fixed number of Bundestag membership as the number of members can range from 500 to 800. The Bundestag elected in 2017 and that will exit after the election in September has roughly 750 members. So we'll need to wait until all votes are counted and jiggled by federal election officials to see how it comes out in the wash lol.


Polling also shows that among the several coalition government choices voters definitely prefer a Union/Green coalition government. Berenberg Chief Economist Holger Schmieding on Monday put the chance that the CDU/CSU will lead the next German government at 65%, with the Greens as junior partner as a 95% probability. Still though, Schmieding also said there was a 35% chance that the Greens could form a government without the CDU/CSU.

And if chancellor were a direct vote, the Green's designee of LSE law grad Annalena Baerbock is favored by voters over the SPD designee Scholz and also if the Union designee is CDU party leader Armin Laschet.

However, the steady if boring German Laschet is being challenged by the dynamic CSU leader Markus Schoeder who runs 20 points ahead of Laschet in all polling and is angling hard to lead the Union in this election. Schoeder believes he can overcome the curse of the Union never winning an election when it's been led by a loose fitting guy from the Bavarian CSU.

 

[Chagos]

<..................................................However, the steady if boring German Laschet is being challenged by the dynamic CSU leader Markus Schoeder who runs 20 points ahead of Laschet in all polling and is angling hard to lead the Union in this election. Schoeder believes he can overcome the curse of the Union never winning an election when it's been led by a loose fitting guy from the Bavarian CSU.

Laschet won the race for the Chancellorship candidature of the Union (CDU/CSU) today and Söder (that's the correct spelling) conceded.

The choices here were, as far as I'm concerned, between Satan and the Devil.

Or, to be less dramatic, between an unimaginative party soldier devoid of any charisma, and an incorrigible snake oil salesman whose narcissism is unfortunately admired by many.

With Rostocker now gone, I can come back in here occasionally to report again without feeling the need to bathe in medicinal ethanol afterwards.

 

[Tangmo]

Laschet won the race for the Chancellorship candidature of the Union (CDU/CSU) today and Söder (that's the correct spelling) conceded.

The choices here were, as far as I'm concerned, between Satan and the Devil.

Or, to be less dramatic, between an unimaginative party soldier devoid of any charisma, and an incorrigible snake oil salesman whose narcissism is unfortunately admired by many.

With Rostocker now gone, I can come back in here occasionally to report again without feeling the need to bathe in medicinal ethanol afterwards.

Yes thx as I didn't mention the Union choice for chancellor designee was occurring on the same day I wrote the post -- I was going to post the outcome today my time in China (GMT+8).

As to the German language umlaut in Soder's name the American keyboard doesn't have 'em, ie, the umlaut for a, o and u. The language nazi Rostocker quite indignantly hollered at me at first because I wasn't using the umlaut so because the guy is crude and offensive I let him holler until he got tired of it rather than point out to him the American keyboard thingy of not having the umlaut sign.

I saw in some recent respectable readings Soder without the umlaut was presented as Schoeder so that's how and why I adopted the spelling of it. Now that Schoeder is gone from the national scene in Germany -- essentially anyway -- I don't see that it matters much that I do this. Short of you convincing me not to place the two vowels together for each umlaut I'll continue to use the alternative spelling as I come across names (only) that contain the umlaut given the American keyboard and so many other keyboards round the world do not provide for the German umlaut.

As to Laschet and Schoeder -- Satan and the Devil -- I couldn't agree more as there isn't a dime's worth of difference between 'em kissing Putin's arse on NS 2 SK and virtually everything and anything Putin wants in his state capture of Berlin and the politico-economic elites throughout Germany. Laschet was practically shining Assad's shoes for him at one point.

Indeed, German elites are long time saps for Russia and there's no changing that except by applying a 2x4 to 'em swiftly and between the eyes while kicking 'em in the nads. The Greens are the only party that knows Russia and Putin for what they are, ie, dictator tyrant czarist KGB-Stasi imperialists, which the Greens uniquely reject. When it comes to the USA the Greens criticize us based on the principles of democracy and human rights we taught 'em even though Germany does far worse living those principles than the Republican Party in the U.S. does.

 

[Chagos]

~............................................As to the German language umlaut in Soder's name the American keyboard doesn't have 'em, ie, the umlaut for a, o and u. The language nazi Rostocker quite indignantly hollered at me at first because I wasn't using the umlaut so because the guy is crude and offensive I let him holler until he got tired of it rather than point out to him the American keyboard thingy of not having the umlaut sign.
....................~

Just to address this, it's a bit cumbersome but you can use the keystrokes of alt+ 0228 for ä, alt + 0246 for ö and alt + 0252 for ü, but use the right hand numbers pad on your keyboard.

But adding the "e" to the vowel is totally acceptable even in Germany.

Still, the "sch" you use would have Söder pronounced as (English) Shöder, where it should be just the "S" sound.

As to Germany's affinity for dealing as amiably as possible with "The Bear", one need see that due to its special post-war status (cut down the middle by Russian occupation with the cut-away half being Warsaw Pact, but nevertheless peopled by Germans), it had a far greater need for co-existence than any of its Western neighbors not so afflicted.

But in that relationship the business aspect was (and is) not so much political than it was in pursuit of the principle "money talks".

Rostocker's frenzied screeching of Germany asserting its own sovereignty over US patronizing was, of course, a load of bull. Some interested circles (notably the AfD) may pursue and exploit that fairy tale for own political gain, investors don't give a damn over it.

I personally have always opposed NS2, principally because it will reach obsolescence long before it gives returns on the investment. Quite aside from cosy-ing up in this day and age to what is principally a regime of neo-fascist thugs not doing much for Germany's reputation abroad where self-respect is concerned.

The line of the US wanting to bully Germany into buying its fracked crap at prices that don't compete is just as much one of Rostocker's favourite pipe dreams. Germany has been (and is) buying and using LNG and LPG from plenty of other sources anyway.

Point being that the policy of going "alternative", when it does succeed as it no doubt eventually will, is totally countermanded by any long term commitment to "fossil". That's why the Greens have trashed the whole NS2 project from the getgo and it is their main reason, far more than any misgivings about the little KGB dwarf.

On US "domestics" I won't comment here, this not being the proper forum. And, just to be clear, I don't comment on them in any more US-related forum either, simply because I'm sick to the teeth with even watching the crap thrown there by both sides (at each other).

 

[Tangmo]

Just to address this, it's a bit cumbersome but you can use the keystrokes of alt+ 0228 for ä, alt + 0246 for ö and alt + 0252 for ü, but use the right hand numbers pad on your keyboard.

But adding the "e" to the vowel is totally acceptable even in Germany.

Still, the "sch" you use would have Söder pronounced as (English) Shöder, where it should be just the "S" sound.

Yeah I did look that up way back when the Unterwachtmeister flatfoot corporal was hollering at me and being an umlaut nazi but I tossed any possibility I'd go that convoluted route.

Actually I could use the numbers lock to avoid all the numbers codes you provide but it's still too much for me to do, especially 3 or 4 times to a given post. While I'd rather not offend the language per se neither do I want to jump through flaming hoops to accommodate precisely unique pronunciations and phonics.

So I appreciate your pointing these certain things out to me in my typing the name of Soder as Schoeder as I saw it used in a couple of readings. The least I can do or so I figure is to get as close as I can to typing it. Hence knowing not to put the English double letter combination sound of sh is helpful indeed given it's singularly an S sound. I'd wondered about that so now you've cleared that up for me.

It condenses to the reality that there's German and there's English and then there's what most of us have and use which is Gerlish. Each language gets bastardized more and less although your English is obviously that of a native speaker. So in China I hear 'em speak Chinglish and in SK I had to listen to Korlish while in Thailand I got Thailish. And so on for any of us whose native language is English. I gave as I received of course given it's mutual, ie, naturally reciprocal.

Rostocker's Gerlish started out as comprehensible in his writing and reading if awkward and often odd and full of holes yet by this year he was in a good stride with it. I made it a point to pepper him with idioms and colloquialisms just to keep him googling and expanding his Gerlish repertoire more toward the lish of it. In money terms he would have paid a small fortune to me for the daily private single person tutoring in composition but then again that's not what we do here.

 

[Tangmo]

With approximately 100,000 Russian troops swarmed at the country's borders the Ukraine FM says Nord Stream 1&2 are a political and not a commercial project designed in Moscow to enable Russia to militarily seize all of Ukraine.

What he doesn't say is equally important however, ie, Germany is the Kremlin's Silent Partner is this obvious yet unmistakably recognizable scheme by Moscow-Berlin to reestablish the Russian Empire regardless of how small and pathetic it would be. And so Germany can realize its centuries old goal to lord over all of Europe as its rightful masters.


Kuleba explains major threat to Ukraine posed by Nord Stream 2

The Foreign Minister believes that the Nord Stream 2 project threatens not only energy security, but also the security of Ukraine as a whole. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba believes the completion of Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project will create the basis for a Russian attack on Ukraine. Kuleba noted that the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 projects bypassing Ukraine were conceived as political, not commercial projects.

"If our pipeline is not needed anymore, if it is empty, Russia doesn't have to care about its reputation anymore. It can attack without being afraid of causing damage to the pipeline or to the sustainability of the entire infrastructure of gas transit through Ukraine," said Kuleba. Nord Stream 2 is not a project that will make Europe safe, the foreign minister underlined.

https://cc.bingj.com/cache.aspx?q=Kuleba+explains+major+threat+to+Ukraine+posed+by+Nord+Stream+2++Read+more+on+UNIAN:+https://www.unian.info/economics/nord-stream-2-kuleba-explains-major-threat-to-ukraine-posed-by-russia-s-pipe-11395285.html&d=172310247698&mkt=en-US&setlang=en-US&w=_FRi5xybIp-DZ4tewqiaZfwEdHZYSg9s


Kuleba said during the online press conference. “In about a week, they are expected to reach a combined force of over 120,000 troops.”

 

[Tangmo]

It continues to get worse as the NS 2 SK pipeline continues to be laid in the Baltic by a flotilla of Russian industrial vessels and with the absolute unyielding support of Germany.

Ukraine: 120,000 Russian troops soon stationed at border​

Kyiv’s top diplomat says there’s no guarantee Moscow ‘will stop building up their forces at that number.

The situation has rattled Western allies, who fear an invasion could be afoot. “Russian troops continue to arrive in close proximity to our borders in the northeast, in the east and in the south,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said during an online press conference. “In about a week, they are expected to reach a combined force of over 120,000 troops.”

“What is even more worrying,” he said, “is that it is not just troops, but also paratroopers in Crimea, electronic warfare systems able to jam communications over the entire territory of Ukraine, ballistic missiles and some other clear signs of potentially offensive capabilities.” Kuleba also said he hadn’t even raised with EU foreign ministers the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will cut off Ukraine gas via Ukraine — Berlin has steadfastly stood behind it. Instead, Kuleba said, he raises the issue “in all bilateral conversations I’m having.”

Ukraine: 120,000 Russian troops soon stationed at border

Kyiv’s top diplomat says there’s no guarantee Moscow ‘will stop building up their forces at that number.’

www.politico.eu

In Ukraine Russia has already changed the borders of Europe by force for the first time since World War II. With the silent yet absolute and rock hard support of Germany.

Germany again. This time Germany with Russia against NATO, EU and all of Europe and the USA.

 

[Tangmo]

As the digital zine National Interest reminds us, President Barack Obama’s failure to enforce his self-imposed Syria “red-line” in 2012 undermined his credibility globally. It was not a coincidence that Russia invaded Crimea two years later.


If President Joe Biden is serious about deterring Vladimir Putin, he must sanction the Nordstream 2 pipeline.

Russia has amassed 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border, which is the “highest military deployment of the Russian army on Ukrainian borders ever,” according to Josep Borrell, the European Union’s foreign policy chief. This deployment is a first test of the Biden administration’s resolve to obstruct Putin’s geopolitical goals. An underwater pipeline is considerably harder to construct, but it provides Moscow an opening to militarize the Baltic Sea. Moscow will likely deploy military presence to the area under the guise of protecting all of Europe’s energy security.


Germany, part of the NATO alliance, is now at Putin’s mercy. Military force is no longer required for Berlin to do Moscow’s bidding—all it would take is shutting off the gas supply and refusing to turn it on until the Kremlin’s demands are met. That is why President Trump reassigned 9,500 of 34,500 U.S. troops stationed in Germany to Poland. President Biden reversed this order in February 2021. If President Joe Biden is serious about deterring Vladimir Putin, he must sanction the Nordstream 2 pipeline.

Is Joe Biden ‘Rolling Over’ on Russia?

If the United States is really done “rolling over” in the face of Russian aggression as Biden claims, symbolic sanctions are insufficient.

nationalinterest.org

Biden/Blinken are too late as salvage engineers of Germany so they together need to forget about reclaiming Putin's Germany as an effective ally. That Obama as Potus had our guys listening in on Merkel's phone calls is revealing of Germany's two faced disloyalty by the SPD during the Cold War and post Cold War by the CDU/CSU.

The Russia loving SPD of Schroederovsky has been joined by CDU/CSU, FDP, AfD, Linke -- only the Greens reject Russia as incompatible with Western values and as a country that is unwelcomed among the civilized and the good natured who define us.

Congress is hostile toward Germany already -- on NS 2 SK most prominently -- so it's past time the Executive caught up with the bipartisan members of the national legislature to kick Germany in the balls on every opportunity and on each and every issue. Ostracize 'em from Europe, NATO, EU, the USA and its people. Maybe kick 'em out of the monetary union -- let 'em try the ruble and the rmb and see how far they get ha ha ha.

 

[Tangmo]

WOLFGANG ISCHINGER is Chair of the Munich Security Conference since 2008 and served as German Ambassador to the United States from 2001 to 2006. This piece appeared in the current Foreign Affairs journal of the prestigious Council on Foreign Relations in New York (since 1921).


Of note is that current polls suggest that any future coalition in Berlin led by the Union is likely to include the Green Party (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen), the liberal Free Democratic Party, or both. While the liberals argue for a moratorium on the construction of the pipeline, the Greens demand the outright stop of Nord Stream 2 on both ecological and political grounds.

Russia’s Gas Pipeline Doesn’t Need to Rupture Transatlantic Relations​

Nord Stream 2 Can Be a Source of Leverage, Not a Liability​

By Wolfgang Ischinger​

April 22, 2021

Nord Stream 2 now threatens to burden the transatlantic honeymoon before Europe and the United States can restore their mutual trust. Even worse, the pipeline has become a millstone around Germany’s neck, weakening its foreign policy credibility and burdening its relationship with its Eastern neighbors, with other EU member states, and with the United States. The German government must therefore adopt a more proactive diplomatic approach. It should use the pipeline as a bargaining chip to extract concessions from Russia—such as a promise to halt foreign hacking campaigns or to release opposition leader Alexei Navalny.


The Biden administration has yet to expand [implementation of] U.S. sanctions on companies involved in the project, sensitive to widespread criticism of U.S. extraterritorial sanctions in the EU. But a bipartisan coalition in Congress could go ahead and expand sanctions anyway. A new State Department report on Nord Stream 2 is due to Congress in May, and momentum is building for congressional action.

Russia’s Gas Pipeline Doesn’t Need to Rupture Transatlantic Relations

The German government should use Nord Stream 2 as a bargaining chip to extract concessions from Russia.

www.foreignaffairs.com

If it looked like Biden/Blinken had ruled out sanctions the bipartisan Congress would be storming the White House and throwing firebombs into it -- huge ones. Congress' public silence indicates their belief B&B will go with sanctions next month and, although they will not be enough, Congress will act on its own to apply sanctions by notifying USA banks and financial processing systems to exclude the German firms access to also include any and all European support companies of the pipeline. Congress does after all regulate and write the laws that govern US banks and all other USA financial institutions.

Last week Sen. Ted Cruz the Senate leading pipeline opponent removed his hold on Biden's nomination of Wendy Sherman to be #2 at the State Department. Cruz had frozen her nomination in February pending his being satisfied B&B will implement sanctions against German firms supporting resumption of pipeline construction and any and all European firms doing likewise.

Indeed DepState published on April 9th the sanctions laws and regulations guidelines that provide all concerned with a 30 day warning sanctions are coming in 30 dayze exactly and to bail now or else.

 

[Tangmo]

Sen. Cruz yesterday successfully attached an amendment to an urgent Ukraine defense and weapons assistance bill that identifies 20 companies and vessels to sanction due to their resumption of construction of NS 2 SK currently occurring in the Danish EEZ of the Baltic.

The bill is expected to zip through the Senate, the House and then be expressed to Biden's desk for his signature into law. The bill provides $300m to Ukraine to buy weapons and support platforms for its military in the face of the now fading Russian buildup.

“My amendment should remove any hope among the companies building Nord Stream 2 that they can avoid accountability,” Cruz said.



Here's from an industry news source in the U.S. of the action...

US SENATE BILL AIMS TO BLOCK NORD STREAM 2​

An amendment targeting the gas pipeline was inserted into a broader measure meant to deter Russian aggression.

US senator Ted Cruz said April 21 that part of a bill meant to support Ukraine in fending off Russian agression should block the controversial second string of the Nord Stream gas pipeline from completion. By a voice vote, the Senate foreign relations committee advanced an amendment to the broader Ukraine Security Partnership Act authored by Cruz, a Republican representing Texas, that identifies some 20 companies and ships that could be subject to sanctions for their role in the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline.


The US state department issued a statement March 18 warning that "any entity involved in the Nord Steam 2 pipeline risks US sanctions and should immediately abandon work on the pipeline." The US sanctions regime aims to punish companies involved in Nord Stream 2's installation, certification and insurance. Around 20 companies, mostly insurers, have reportedly left the project in recent months in response to the threat. The Kremlin has sought to wrestle Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, away from a Western embrace, annexing its Crimean peninsula in 2014. Speaking April 22, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted by Russian news agency Tass as saying foreign interference in Ukraine was a “red line” for Moscow.

US Senate bill aims to block Nord Stream 2

An amendment targeting the gas pipeline was inserted into a broader measure meant to deter Russian aggression.

www.naturalgasworld.com

If you build it we will come....and we will stop it being insured, certified and put into operation. Germany needs to cooperate with NATO, EU, USA rather than be a prostitute to Russia.

 

[Fledermaus]

Tangmo is turning this into another Cadet thread.

 

[Tangmo]

This is what Germany could and should be doing instead of residing quietly in Putin's back pocket and pleasing the Moscow Mafia in the Kremlin while busily working to sever the U.S. from Europe...


Nord Stream 2 Can Be a Source of Leverage, Not a Liability

By Wolfgang Ischinger​

April 22, 2021

Berlin could link completion of the pipeline to improvement in its bilateral relationship with Moscow and the resolution of contentious issues for Germany and its allies. The latter could possibly include, among other issues, halting hacking, disinformation, and assassination campaigns on foreign soil; accepting decisions by the European Court of Human Rights; releasing Navalny; and resolving the conflicts in Georgia and eastern Ukraine. Berlin might also condition the opening of the pipeline on Russia’s willingness later this year to hold free and fair elections, as determined by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Regardless of the exact conditions, making the operation of the gas pipeline dependent on Russia’s behavior would send a strong signal that Western democratic nations are taking a joint, robust stance against Moscow.


Europe’s negotiating position is significantly stronger today than it was even a few years ago. Reforms have deepened the integrity of the European gas market, and the global gas market has shifted to a “buyers’ market.” Moreover, Europe’s transition to green energy is gaining in speed, reducing its need for natural gas as “bridge fuel” and undercutting the economic and ecological rationale of projects such as Nord Stream 2.

Russia’s Gas Pipeline Doesn’t Need to Rupture Transatlantic Relations

The German government should use Nord Stream 2 as a bargaining chip to extract concessions from Russia.

www.foreignaffairs.com

Given Germany is being absolutely intransigent however the only option available to the U.S. is to land a 2x4 on 'em right between the eyes.

 

[Tangmo]

Vlad the Knife.


Poland’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Szymon Szynkowski vel Sęk said that by building the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, Germany is deliberately harming the security of the European Union.

In an interview with Polish public broadcaster TVP Info, the deputy head of diplomacy said that Germany concluded a construction contract with a partner breaking international law and that there is no good alternative than to abandon this investment. Mr vel Sęk also recalled the words of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who said during the meeting of the Council of Europe that the gas flowing through Nord Stream 1 is no different from the gas flowing, for example, through Ukraine.


"The essence is not whether the knife is a good tool or a bad one, because as a tool, it is undoubtedly very often useful, but who can use it and for what purpose is important," the deputy head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs pointed out. "Germany knows perfectly well for what purpose and how the Russian Federation can use the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines," he stressed. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki appealed to Germany on Thursday to abandon the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, emphasising that the German-Russian project is destabilising Europe and reducing its security.

Germany harms EU security by participating in NS2 project: official

Szymon Szynkowski vel Sęk pointed out that there is no reasonable alternative other than to abandon this investment.

polandin.com

 

[Tangmo]

German Ostpolitik with Russia since ca 1970 has gone kaput as the writer notes and discusses in the European Security Review. Both Germany and Putin have replaced it with a coordinated and willful assault against Western values and principles.

We see this on a boldfaced and fierce display in Nord Stream 2. The Moscow Mafia in the Kremlin have seized control of German elites in Berlin by means of Schroderization and state capture.


Change-through-rapprochement worked in the 1970s. Vladimir Putin’s Russia is different.

Frederick Studemann argues in the Financial Times that Germany’s Ostpolitik breathes its last in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline controversy.

Germany’s allies in Central European and North America have for years argued against the extension of the Baltic Sea pipeline, arguing — correctly — that it is a political project for Moscow.

It confirms what Studemann writes, and what I argued here in 2016: that Ostpolitik is not working. The reason it did in the 1970s was that East Germany and Russia sought Western recognition of the status quo in Eastern Europe. The communists in East Germany desperately wanted to be taken seriously as a country. Before Ostpolitik, West Germany wouldn’t recognize them as anything more than a Soviet occupation zone.

Vladimir Putin is attempting the opposite from Soviet leaders: a revision of the post-Cold War order in Europe. The dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact left Europe whole and free. Now Russia is attacking the pillars on which a Europe whole-and-free is built: the EU, NATO, liberal democracy and the inviolability of national borders. Compromise and business-as-usual only encourage Putin to push harder.

Private Site

europeansecurityreview.wordpress.com

And for Germany to push harder with Putin against EU, NATO, liberal democracy and the inviolability of national borders. The Russo-German Axis had been incremental and low intensity until Nord Stream 2 exploded across the vast space from Moscow to Washington with Berlin and Brussels in between being shattered while China skulks about.

 

[Fledermaus]

Yep, another Tangmo thread where Tangmo talks to Tangmo....

 

[Tangmo]

Indeed now there's talk in Berlin about Germany needing a "Plan B" for NS 2 SK -- that is, a moratorium on its construction.

Die Welt newspaper reported Saturday that Biden/Blinken have turned up the heat and want the moratorium as first proposed by the U.S. embassy last fall and endorsed by Germany's high representative for Trans-Atlantic Relations last month after the NATO foreign ministers conference in Brussels.

Die Welt reported Saturday 12 top sanctions officials of U.S. DeptState, Treasury and Energy Department have been conducting private video conferences with pipeline contractors and "made it very clear that they are set to prevent the completion of the pipeline." The German government source also advised Die Welt, "The threat is very, very serious."

While the article is written in German a MSN translation of the headline reads: 'Plan B': Germany Reportedly Mulls Putting Construction of Nord Stream 2 on Hold Amid US Pressure


The German newspaper Die Welt has reported that with Washington's increasing pressure on Berlin over Nord Stream 2, a "Plan B" is needed "to put construction of the gas pipeline on hold for the time being".


Die Welt Saturday cited CDU senior adviser Roderich Kiesewetter as saying that Germany needs "a face-saving solution for all sides" and that "a moratorium could be" an option.

Even the Decades Long Russia Loving SPD is backing up now with Nils Schmid saying to Die Welt, "It would be possible to make the operation [of NS 2 SK] subject to certain conditions," many of which I've posted on to include during the past week.

Indeed the other day Merkel herself made a rare statement about NS 2 SK, saying only that the pipeline is part of a broader "political struggle." Yet this is a reversal of Merkel's long term hard core and completely bogus position that NS 2 SK is "purely economic."

Methinks Biden/Blinken are about to toss a bucket of Baltic water onto the Wicked Witch of the West and evaporate her down into a puddle as Polonium Putin looks on in horror.

 

[Tangmo]

The author Anders Åslund is a resident senior fellow in the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council in Washington. He also teaches at Georgetown University. He is a leading specialist on economic policy in Russia, Ukraine, and East Europe.

In his analysis published today by the Council, Dr. Aslund discusses Nord Stream 1&2 as the Kremlin's "most daring attempt to break up the EU and NATO."

What will the impact be if Nord Stream 2 is completed?​

TUE, APR 27, 2021

Gazprom chief Alexei Miller (L) poses with former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (C) and Isabelle Kocher, Chief Executive Officer of French gas and power group Engie, in Paris, France, April 24, 2017, after western partners of gas giant Gazprom agreed on financing the 9.5 billion euro ($10.32 billion) Nord Stream 2 pipeline. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann


National security is the most important effect of a possible completion of NS2. Both the Ukrainian transit line and the Belarusian-Polish gas pipeline are likely to be abandoned. That would give Russia a freer hand for military actions in Ukraine and Belarus. Given that Gazprom is notorious for cutting gas supply in the middle of the winter, this is an impermissible energy security risk.2 Russia can use Nord Stream for political or financial extortion.


The geopolitical effect of the completion could be devastating. Russia’s obvious intention has been to form an alliance with Germany and Austria, the Netherlands and Belgium, against Eastern and Northern Europe. NS2 is Russia’s most daring attempt to break up the EU. It is difficult to comprehend how [Germany as] a NATO government could accept any part of this, and it is remarkable that Germany, the otherwise most multilateral of the large EU countries, has acted so unilaterally for so long. As the outstanding German journalist Josef Joffe notes: “Merkel has maneuvered Germany into isolation.”

What will the impact be if Nord Stream 2 is completed?

A completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline will have an impact on a number of issues, from national and energy security to geopolitical and governance considerations, all while the gas supply will hardly be impacted with costs already sunk. Does the pipeline make commercial sense?

www.atlanticcouncil.org

Indeed, during the Putin-Merkel reign over Germany, and due to the Russian Schroederization of Germany with the strong support of Schroeder's Russia Loving SPD, Germany has become a NATO ally on paper only. Which is why the author notes that, "The only surprising thing is that Germany has such poor governance that this project has been able to proceed so far."

The newer political parties of the opposite extremes, namely the AfD on the Right and Der Linke on the Left, have their pro Russia base in the former East Germany which is also the home turf of Merkel herself. Born and raised in the DDR, Merkel became naturally fluent in Russian and was an active member of the DDR Communist Party.

Merkel in the capital of the reunited and now no thanks to her Kremlin state captured Germany confirms yet again that the apple does not fall far from the tree. And that once on the ground the apple rots back into the tree again.

 

[Tangmo]

We've seen the bipartisan Congress is fierce and determined against NS 2 SK so included in this post is the statement of U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur a Democrat from Ohio at yesterday's Launch Event of the Nord Stream 2 Issue Brief by Dr. Anders Aslund at the Atlantic Council in Washington. The video is below.


Russia would completely abandon the Ukrainian transit line, giving the Kremlin a freer hand for its military action in Ukraine. It also would undermine Europe’s energy security by concentrating gas flows through pipelines controlled solely by Russia. I am also troubled by the implications in the report that Nord Stream 2 could have devastating geopolitical effects.

By driving a wedge between Western and Eastern Europe, Russia will undermine unity in the European Union and importantly the NATO alliance at a time when transatlantic solidarity is needed more than ever. Finally, I share the report’s concerns that a completed Nord Stream 2 would help Russia spread its corruption throughout Europe and corrode democratic institutions. I am personally troubled by the role former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder has played to advocate for the pipeline. He is willing to write off Ukraine and undermine liberty in Europe just to enrich himself on the board of Gazprom.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Rep.-Kaptur-Statement-0427.pdf

Dr. Anders Åslund answers the key question, “What will the true impact of a completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline be?” In his new issue brief, Åslund goes beyond the typical conversation to provide relevant, in-depth analysis of the national security, energy security, and geopolitical implications of an operational pipeline.

US Representatives Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) delivered remarks on the report and the importance of addressing Nord Stream 2. A panel discussion followed with Ambassador John Herbst, director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, and Ambassador Daniel Fried, Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council, and Dr. Agnia Grigas, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.

 

[Tangmo]

While Germany and Austria grovel ever more submissively before the Kremlin the European Parliament will vote overwhelimgly on April 29th for a Resolution to recommend excluding Russia from the global SWIFT interbank transfer and payment system.

The Resolution further calls for Europe to stop all imports of oil and gas from Russia should it invade Ukraine.

It calls again for immediately stopping construction of NS 2 SK.

Russia has said previously that excluding it from SWIFT that processes $5 Trillion of international banking payments daily would be "a declaration of war." Indeed while Iran survived being excluded from the Belgian based SWIFT during nuclear agreement negotiations literally everyone in Iran suffered immensely.


European Parliament Seeks SWIFT Shut-Off For Russia “If Ukraine Aggression Continues”

The European Parliament is due on April 29 to vote on a resolution threatening action against Russia over its treatment of jailed opposition leader Aleksei Navalny, its military buildup on Ukraine's border, and what lawmakers describe as "Russian attacks in the Czech Republic." The nonbinding resolution is supported by the five mainstream political groups in the European Parliament. The resolution says that Russia "poses not only an external threat to European security, but is also waging an internal war on its own people in the form of the systematic oppression of the opposition and arrests on the streets."


The draft resolution calls for Russia to immediately release Navalny and pull its military forces back from the border with Ukraine, saying the "scale and striking capabilities" of the Russian troops there "indicate intentions of an offensive." It says that if those Russian forces are used to invade Ukraine, "imports of oil and gas from Russia to the EU [should] be immediately stopped" and Russia should be "excluded from the SWIFT payment system" of international bank transfers. It also says that "assets in the EU of oligarchs close to the Russian authorities and their families" need to be frozen and their EU visas canceled if those Russian forces invade Ukraine. On energy, the resolution calls on the EU to reduce dependence on Russia by halting the completion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea.

European Parliament Seeks SWIFT Shut-Off For Russia “If Ukraine Aggression Continues”

European Parliament Seeks SWIFT Shut-Off For Russia "If Ukraine Aggression Continues" Days after President Putin warned the West of a "harsh" and "

www.nationandstate.com

However, in their total subservience to the Moscow Mafia in the Kremlin, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas of the Russia Loving SPD and the Austrian Chancellor said dialogue is the answer rather than punishments. They're fighting hard to give Putin a free ride through Europe and against the United States. The iron willed Merkel meanwhile continues to stand by the pipeline as ordered by Putin personally to do.


The EP Resolution also states "unequivocally" that "the same GRU agents" from Russia's military intelligence service who were "involved in the explosion of the ammunition depot in the Czech Republic were also responsible for the attempted murder" in Salisbury, England, of former Russian agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia Skripal, using Novichok. Yet in Berlin and Vienna they want to talk about it -- probably only to appreciate the finer technical details.

 

[Tangmo]

A major yet glib theme out of Germany in the hapless Nord Stream 2 fiasco is that Europe-Eurasia can be at peace only if and when Russia and Germany are at peace. Indeed, the Germans chirp mechanically that when Russia and Germany have been at war or in a hostile relationship of distrust and alienation all of Europe has been taken down and out by it.

This piece from the European Views site of journalists from each member country argues the reality that Russia and Germany have for a thousand years entered into invariably fatally flawed partnerships. And that the partnerships have consciously disguised fundamental differences in each nation's premises, purposes and goals despite their surface presentation of shared and mutually beneficial relations to each side and to Europe-Eurasia. Hence their failure. Their rinse and repeat failure.

Germany Can’t Have Its Integrity and Build Its Pipeline Too​

It’s been centuries now and Germany, the supposed leader of the democratic supranational European Union, still can’t seem to figure out and categorically resolve its West vs. Russia dilemma even at a time when a Navalny–Nord Stream 2 dichotomy is looming larger than ever in that nation’s challenges. The dilemma in question is that Germany can benefit incredibly if only it could strike some kind of a perfect deal with Russia and see it stick. The gigantic problem with Germany’s Russian temptation is that the East in question is its own power center, Moscow, with its own idea of taking great advantage and benefitting tremendously from the relationship with Germany, and with its own grand geopolitical ambitions, oftentimes outpacing those of its German half-foe, half-partner. Hence the historical formula of Germany’s Russian dilemma – how to manage to benefit from strong and diverse ties with Russia, without getting overwhelmed or even crushed by that huge power in its own right. The latter did happen once, in 1945, and was everything nightmarish the Germans had feared it could be, at least for the eastern half of the German lands.


If there’s any historical pattern to be discerned into this constant German–Russian struggle of outsmarting the other, or German–Russian frenemy-ship, is that its partnership could last on mutually beneficial terms for decades at a time, but it somehow tends to come to bad ends either for Berlin, or for Moscow. Those bad ends could include a total collapse as testified by 1917-1918 Tsarist Russia, 1945 for Nazi Germany, or 1989-1991 for the Soviet Russia. What could theoretically be a perpetual mutualistic symbiosis often turns into one partner preying upon the other.

Germany Can’t Have Its (Navalny) Integrity and Build Its (Nord Stream 2) Pipeline Too

It’s been centuries now and Germany, the supposed leader of the democratic supranational European Union, still can’t seem to figure out and categorically resolve its West vs. Russia dilemma even at a time when a Navalny – Nord Stream 2 (NN2) dichotomy is looming larger than ever in that...

www.european-views.com

Indeed while the Moscow Mafia in the Kremlin are certain they've got Berlin by the balls the Germans in the always mutually cloaked deal are certain they are smarter -- and tougher -- than everybody else, never mind only the Russians. This persistent formula over a thousand years has proved conclusively to be a disaster for each of 'em, either in its turn or together. In short, throughout their history every Russia-Germany partnership has ended in a disaster for one or the other -- or both.


Indeed the author's analysis includes the “Russian temptation” that for the Germans and as a persistent geopolitical imperative has taken various forms -- besides the Lebensraum Osten quests of the two World Wars -- ranging from the large-scale settlement of German farmers in the Russian Empire in the 18th century under Empress Catherine the Great (the so called “Russian-Germans”); to the 19th century League of the Three Emperors skillfully put together and dangerously balanced by Bismarck; to the post-Versailles Rapallo Treaty with its secret military clauses between Weimar Germany and the Soviet Russia at the time; to the Hitler-Stalin Pact, formally known as the Ribentrop-Molotov Pact; to Brandt’s Ostpolitik; all the way to the modern-day natural gas pipelines era culminating with the direct Russia-Germany link: Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2.

So it's the old truism that while history does not repeat itself, it sure does rhyme a lot.

 

[Tangmo]

European Parliament yesterday voted 569-67 for a Resolution recommending "severe" sanctions against Russia to include to stop NS 2 SK.



BRUSSELS, April 29. /TASS/. The European Parliament has approved the resolution on Russia with calls for sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project, Rosatom nuclear corporation, ‘Russian oligarchs’ and disconnection from SWIFT. The European Parliament "Demands that the EU should reduce its dependence on Russian energy, and urges the EU institutions and all Member States, therefore, to stop the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline," the document says.

European Parliament Passes Resolution Condemning Russia

The European Parliament on April 29 passed a resolution threatening action against Russia over its treatment of jailed opposition leader Aleksei Navalny, its military buildup on Ukraine's border, and what lawmakers describe as "Russian attacks in the Czech Republic."

www.rferl.org

The Resolution has no force unless it is adopted unanimously by the Council of Europe which has the heads of EU governments and where the Kremlin owns Germany and Austria. Still however the EP has gone on record expressing the views across Europe, from north to south and from east to west.

Germany remains isolated.

 

[Fledermaus]

Tangmo-thon

 

[Tangmo]

The anti pipeline and anti Russian Greens have for the first time surged ahead of the Union in polling for the new parliament in the September election.

In April 20-26th polling the Greens have taken the clear lead over all parties but are ahead of the historically dominant CDU/CSU at 28% for the Greens vs. 22% for the Union. Virtually all polling reflects the trend of a continuing Green Party surge.

In January the Union was up over the then second place Greens by 15 percentage points. By the universally respected Forsa poll the Union has now fallen to 6 points behind the consistently surging Greens. That's a swing of 21% for the Greens and against the Union over the past several months.

Annalena Baerbock is the Greens candidate for Chancellor who has a 2-1 lead over major party candidates in preference polling.


Moreover, since mid April when the parties chose their chancellor designate leader the Greens Annalena Baerbock has surged from 21% to 32% in voter preference, if there were a direct vote for chancellor which there is not. Laschet of the Union polls at 15% while Scholz of SPD is at an equally measly 13%.

The Baerbock surge for chancellor preference bodes well for Green party candidates in the strictly party "second" vote each voter has. German voters have two votes, one for a candidate by name and face and a "second" vote for party only.

The hapless looking Union candidate for chancellor Armin Laschet who is also CDU leader.


The well established Civey poll of 1,500 business executives for WirtschaftsWoche magazine, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, showed 26.5 percent preferred Mrs Baerbock over Christian Lindner of the traditionally capitalist Free Democrats (FDP) at only 16.2 percent.

Indeed with the Union chancellor designee and Merkel sycophant CDU leader Armin Laschet -- who is also a Russia sycophant -- staring straight into the abyss a number of CDU/CSU officials are urging a prominent campaign role for the anti Merkel Friedrich Merz whom Laschet narrowly defeated for party leader earlier this year, to include indicating a major role for Merz in a CDU led Union government. Many analysists believe however the Union remains hard pressed to pull itself out of this uninterrupted and spiraling election flameout.

Politico Deutschland polling meanwhile that coincided with Potus Biden's address to Congress shows Germans' favorability toward the USA has increased by 22% since Biden's election and inauguration.

 

[Tangmo]

Projected net change in parliamentary seats in the Bundestag as of polling completed on 27 April. Results are based on the 2017 federal election seating.

Germans have two votes in their elections: one for the candidate by name and face and a "second" vote for party only.

The winning direct constituency candidate is guaranteed a seat in the Bundestag. The party only vote gets assigned to candidates who are party members so that some get seated while others don't get seated.

The party vote is called the "Overhang Vote" because if, say, there are 100 party candidates total yet the party gets votes to only seat 60 of 'em, then 40 will not be seated. Accordingly, the Bundestag can vary in size from the usual minimum membership of 500 to as many members as 800. Currently there are approximately 750 members of the Bundestag.


Polling projections 2021 Bundestag seats as of 27 April vs. 2017 election results:

Greens:
Direct Constituency Mandate: 66 = +65 seats
Party Vote: 88 = +83 seats
Net = +148 seats

SPD:
Direct Constituency Mandate: 53 = -6 seats
Party Vote: 91 = -94 seats
Net = -100 seats

Union CDU/CSU
Direct Constituency Mandate: 169 = -62 seats
Party Vote: 83 = +17 seats
Net = -45 seats

AfD:
Direct Constituency Mandate: 8 = +5 seats
Party Vote: 25 = -8 seats
Net = -3 seats


I didn't bother with the successor of the former East German Communist Party, Der Linke, because their numbers are even less than AfD. The Free Democrats Party is never included in this category of the polling for reasons not stated by the only two pollsters who do this categorically, INIS which polls nationally on the direct mandate preferences and election.de that does party vote nationally.

So we see that the Greens are the consistent big gainers in the Bundestag 2021 projections while SPD continues to take Russian gas and the Union finds itself playing the losing game of trying to hold the line.

 

[Tangmo]

Putin is beginning to sweat bullets over his global energy projects given how the U.S. has mucked over his NS 2 SK pet project to include driving all five European investors away from it.

The words of Sen. Ted Cruz must be still ringing in Putin's ears from when Cruz -- the champion of sanctions laws against NS 2 SK -- said in 2019 that global investors will be driven away from Putin's energy projects due to NS 2 incurring the active wrath of Washington.

Putin denounces speculation about Nord Stream 2​

Moscow, Apr 29 (Prensa Latina) Russia's President Vladimir Putin denounced on Thursday that there are many speculations about the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project. Putin said that Russia is currently implementing "large-scale" joint projects known around the world, such as the construction of Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG-2 liquefied natural gas production plants, as well as Nord Stream 2.

"There is a lot of talk about them," the leader noted. Putin considered that there are "many signs of political speculation" when they are, he warned, "purely economic projects that have nothing to do with the current political situation."

Prensa Latina - Latin American News Agency

Latest news from Latin America and the world, we tell the truth minute by minute, from LAtin American news agency Correspondents -

www.plenglish.com

Aside from the lousy English by this Latin America pro Putin 'Prensa,' the five European energy giant coinvestors with Gazprom quit on further funding of NS 2 SK as of December 30, 2020. The two bailed German firms Wintershall Dea and Uniper abandoned Nord Stream 2 AG after U.S. sanctions threats completely shut down the pipeline throughout all of 2020. The German firms were joined in their escape by fellow coinvestors OMV of Austria, Engie of France and Shell.

The 5 fleeing the pipeline at the end of last year left the sole owner of NS2 Gazprom stuck for their non payment that totaled $1bn. Moreover the five reduced their payments throughout 2020 from tens of millions of dollars each to single digits of million dollar payments apiece. In other words the future of NS2 is not bright as seen clearly by the 5 European coinvestors of Gazprom.

Global investors in Putin's several and far flung energy projects have become nervous investors, given especially Gazprom is hemming and hawing on its guarantee to the 5 NS2 investors of their full investment of $1bn each should the $10bn pipeline fail to be completed or to become certified and operational.

Gazprom which is itself in for $5bn of the total $10bn is saying lately that the U.S. "hostile takeover" of the pipeline relieves it of its guarantees to the 5 firms most of which do business in Russia too and have the burden of already having to work around sanctions on Russia itself with more U.S. sanctions in the pipeline so to speak.

In short Nord Stream 2 is Still Kaput.