Thanks to Trump... End of World could be close...

[Slavister]

Many people would think thread subject is a hyperbole, but they are wrong, at least according to the scientists...

A group of scientists and scholars, including 15 Nobel laureates, set the clock at 11:58 p.m. -- two minutes before the symbolic apocalyptic midnight.
...
before the clock struck 11:58 p.m. in both 2018 and 2019, the last time the world was considered so close to annihilation was in 1953, when the United States and the Soviet Union were in a nuclear arms race.

So why are we so close to destruction? Nuclear weapons and climate change, experts say.
"In the nuclear realm, the United States abandoned the Iran nuclear deal and announced it would withdraw from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), grave steps towards a complete dismantlement of the global arms control process," the Bulletin said. "The Iran agreement is not perfect, but it serves the interest of the international community in restraining the spread of nuclear weapons."

As for climate change, "global carbon dioxide emissions -- which seemed to plateau earlier this decade -- resumed an upward climb in 2017 and 2018," the Bulletin said.
...
The scientists lambasted President Donald Trump's announcement to pull out of the 2015 Paris Climate Accord, "the main global accord on addressing climate change."

Yes, I hear the Trumpkins - all those scientists are just uneducated fake-news consumers... Got it...

 

[Mr Person]

The "clock" makes a point, but is a rather silly way of making it. There is reason to attach significance to the reasons one might move the minute hand, but there sure isn't much point in putting any sort of weight on where they move it to.

 

[Slavister]

The "clock" makes a point, but is a rather silly way of making it. There is reason to attach significance to the reasons one might move the minute hand, but there sure isn't much point in putting any sort of weight on where they move it to.

I don't know... I think it is quite telling that since the height of the Cold War in 1953, they did not think we were closer to end of the world than now. And I don't think it's coincidental that the reasons behind their thinking are a direct result of Trump's actions.

 

[Mr Person]

I don't know... I think it is quite telling that since the height of the Cold War in 1953, they did not think we were closer to end of the world than now. And I don't think it's coincidental that the reasons behind their thinking are a direct result of Trump's actions.

It's not the same "they" though, is it?

I'm not trying to downplay the absurdity and disruptiveness of Trump's behavior. But I don't think the clock's chosen position means much.

For one thing, the world seems to be settling into more of a cyberwar rather than hot war footing. I'd turn the clock back in light of that. Who nukes someone over cyber stuff, unless the cyber goes along with a hot war invasion?

Sure, cyberwarfare can be incredibly damaging. But it's not quite the same is "they're trying to kill everyone, let's kill them first", which was the cold war footing. I'm sure MAD is still a policy even if not official, but it looks less likely.




The only other hand I might look at is the increasing likelihood of a superbug that we can't fight until some billions have died. Maybe. But that's up to probability over time...

 

[Slavister]

It's not the same "they" though, is it?

True, but even so...

I'm not trying to downplay the absurdity and disruptiveness of Trump's behavior. But I don't think the clock's chosen position means much.

For one thing, the world seems to be settling into more of a cyberwar rather than hot war footing. I'd turn the clock back in light of that. Who nukes someone over cyber stuff, unless the cyber goes along with a hot war invasion?

While cyberwar is important in disrupting others' capabilities, I don't think you appreciate the chance of nuclear weapons use with countries that have mad men for their leaders. We used to have 2 super powers. Now, we have Pakistan and India, always at odds with each other. North Korea. Iran is on the way. And with Trump, USA can be added to the list of such countries as well. One nuke fired leads to chain reaction that you can easily imagine.

The scientists have put more thought into this than you and I too. Here is one little piece from their statement.

The nuclear-armed states remain committed to their arsenals, are determined to modernize their capabilities, and have increasingly espoused doctrines that envision nuclear use. Brash leaders, intense diplomatic disputes, and regional instabilities combine to create an international context in which nuclear dangers are all too real.

I'm sure MAD is still a policy even if not official, but it looks less likely.

MAD works well with 2 superpowers. Much less so with 10 countries + who knows who many former Soviet Republics might have some too...