Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

[Hoplite]

The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy « You Are Not So Smart

The Misconception: You take randomness into account when determining cause and effect.

The Truth: You tend to ignore random chance when the results seem meaningful or when you want a random event to have a meaningful cause.

This is a great read for ANYONE who does anything with any sort of discussion, online or real life.

 

[Councilman]

Very interesting and accurate.

On my Radio show I was privileged to interview a great number of people who were made famous by Art Bell on Coast to Coast AM on a wide variety of subjects and a couple of them were sold on Nostradamus being the most accurate visionary in human history, but then others would argue that it's Edgar Cayce.

These people who believe will not entertain any thought other than it's all some divine miracle that these men could see clearly into the future.

It was sometimes very hard not to argue with some of these people because this becomes almost like a religion to them.

I have also talked with people about Bigfoot that had the same fanatical beliefs in this mythical creature.

I say mythical because until I see one living or dead it's mythical like unicorns.

Excellent post I enjoyed it immensely. It show me required reading in schools in a class that teaches logic, critical thinking, and how to be analytical.

 

[Andalublue]

The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy « You Are Not So Smart

This is a great read for ANYONE who does anything with any sort of discussion, online or real life.

Thanks, Hoplite, excellent article. It doesn't necessarily stop me believing in Karma, but it should be a lesson to all in not believing you can ever recognise or predict it.

 

[Diogenes]

Excellent find!

The opening quote you picked perfectly describes global warming and all sorts of other conspiracy theories. Thank you!

 

[Whovian]

I have also talked with people about Bigfoot that had the same fanatical beliefs in this mythical creature.

I say mythical because until I see one living or dead it's mythical like unicorns.