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Texas - going blue?

pamak

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Here is an example of what $1.1M buys in the Dallas area... 4,782 square feet


View attachment 67300185

View attachment 67300186



My medium size, 2 bedroom, nice but certainly not luxurious apartment (part of an 8 unit complex) does not even have a pool and cost more in cash, lol
 

uptower

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I think texas will stay red. They enjoy voting against their own best interests.
Texas will eventually turn at least purple as it's demographics evolve. Dunno if it'll happen in time for this election but in another couple of cycles it will be competitive rather than a lock-in.
 

calamity

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Texas will eventually turn at least purple as it's demographics evolve. Dunno if it'll happen in time for this election but in another couple of cycles it will be competitive rather than a lock-in.
Watch for more voter suppression as the White Power structure struggles to maintain minority control.
 

BlueTex

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Watch for more voter suppression as the White Power structure struggles to maintain minority control.
The real gem in Texas this election are state house seats.. Just need 9 seats
 

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I was talking with a "luxury" builder here yesterday... Every house they have under construction is sold with multiple backup offers... These are homes in the $650K-$750K range..
A 650-750K house in a lot of California will get you a shoebox.
 

Jay59

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Texas will eventually turn at least purple as it's demographics evolve. Dunno if it'll happen in time for this election but in another couple of cycles it will be competitive rather than a lock-in.
You are making some unjustified assumptions.

That's funny - that's exactly what my OP said. At least I am not the only one who noticed (or they stole my post :) )
You're both probably wrong.

The real gem in Texas this election are state house seats.. Just need 9 seats
It' is too bad for the Democrats that it's a general election year. 2021 is reapportionment from the census. Texas will likely add two seats.

Minor footnote in the election cycle news, the census ended on 5 October, despite major problems due to COVID.
 
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Slavister

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You're both probably wrong.
Yes, since we said the same thing, we are both either right or wrong... Now, what do YOU contribute this observation in the OP to? Why do you think of all the states, and esp. battleground ones, TX is by FAR the most early voters compared to 2016?
 

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I wouldn’t try to predict much off early voter patterns. Notoriously hard to read, and especially this year when voting patterns are likely to be entirely different than any previous election
 

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Yes, since we said the same thing, we are both either right or wrong... Now, what do YOU contribute this observation in the OP to? Why do you think of all the states, and esp. battleground ones, TX is by FAR the most early voters compared to 2016?
You didn't ask me directly, but I think the early voting numbers will hurt overall turnout. This is why BOTH campaigns have come out saying that the numbers are inflated.
 

BlueTex

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It' is too bad for the Democrats that it's a general election year. 2021 is reapportionment from the census. Texas will likely add three seats.

Minor footnote in the election cycle news, the census ended on 5 October, despite major problems due to COVID.
It’s the Texas House of Representatives I was referring to..
 

Jay59

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It’s the Texas House of Representatives I was referring to.
That's what I said. It's unfortunate for the Texas Democrats that it is a general election year, because it makes flipping the state House less likely. Reapportionment big issue on the docket next session.

Yes, since we said the same thing, we are both either right or wrong... Now, what do YOU contribute this observation in the OP to? Why do you think of all the states, and esp. battleground ones, TX is by FAR the most early voters compared to 2016?
The number of early voters does not change anything of which I am aware.

Obviously, but not like this. This is a full blown exodus.
This is a fact. California appears to be losing two seats in the House.
 
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Slavister

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You didn't ask me directly, but I think the early voting numbers will hurt overall turnout. This is why BOTH campaigns have come out saying that the numbers are inflated.
1. You did not specifically answer the question I asked though: how do you explain TX being far ahead of other states in early voting number vs their 2016 turnout? My OP suggests it COULD be an indication of TX turning more blue than the polls suggest but I am open to other ideas.

2. What makes you (or others?) think it will hurt overall turnout?
 

BlueTex

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That's what I said. It's unfortunate for the Texas Democrats that it is a general election year, because it makes flipping the state House less likely. Reapportionment big issue on the docket next session.
Lol... wonder why they got rid of straight ticket voting all of the sudden... 😀
 

skeptic llc

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Well Trump wasn't a Conservative

Trump made unions cool for conservatives

*sigh*
True I think. In 2016, Trump did not match the general sense of what a conservative was (whereas in 2020, "conservative" may just mean whatever Trump says it means).
 

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You didn't ask me directly, but I think the early voting numbers will hurt overall turnout. This is why BOTH campaigns have come out saying that the numbers are inflated.
This is misreading the liberal room every bit as much as we misread the conservative room in 2016.
 

Schweddy

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1. You did not specifically answer the question I asked though: how do you explain TX being far ahead of other states in early voting number vs their 2016 turnout? My OP suggests it COULD be an indication of TX turning more blue than the polls suggest but I am open to other ideas.

2. What makes you (or others?) think it will hurt overall turnout?
1. You're right, I did not answer. I think that the never Trump crowd feels that they are much stronger than they really are. Only the most populated areas have really voted in Texas. The rural areas (Trump supporters) will wait until election day as they will think there will be no lines and its a civic duty to be seen voting. Unsure if it is a true indication of true flip, yet.

2. I feel, that many will not vote if they think they will be voting for the losing team. If overall perception is one way, then the other side might stay home and folks that think they are "winning" might not bother on election day. That's human nature and we've seen it in states that have multiple time-zones on election days. Again, note that both campaigns have said as recent as today that the numbers are overly inflated.
 

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1. You're right, I did not answer. I think that the never Trump crowd feels that they are much stronger than they really are. Only the most populated areas have really voted in Texas. The rural areas (Trump supporters) will wait until election day as they will think there will be no lines and its a civic duty to be seen voting. Unsure if it is a true indication of true flip, yet.
But why would TX specifically be doing so much better than other states in this regard even though other states are supposed to be more competitive? Normally, higher-than-normal turnout suggests bigger D power and so why would that be more pronounced in TX vs others?

All states have similar breakdown of Dem cities and Rep rural

2. I feel, that many will not vote if they think they will be voting for the losing team. If overall perception is one way, then the other side might stay home and folks that think they are "winning" might not bother on election day. That's human nature and we've seen it in states that have multiple time-zones on election days. Again, note that both campaigns have said as recent as today that the numbers are overly inflated.
Ok, fair enough. Which numbers did they say are inflated exactly? The early voting numbers that the states are reporting? How can they be inflated?
 

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But why would TX specifically be doing so much better than other states in this regard even though other states are supposed to be more competitive?

All states have similar breakdown of Dem cities and Rep rural
Dallas county in particular has always been very strong in the get out the vote campaign. It holds the largest population of LGBT community in the US. I wonder how many people knew that? Anyway, I may be wrong, but I believe Dallas county always has very strong early voting numbers in presidential election years.

Ok, fair enough. Which numbers did they say are inflated exactly? The early voting numbers that the states are reporting? How can they be inflated?
They weren't specific. Just that the numbers are inflated. There may be more statements that I could have missed if they were specific.
 

BlueTex

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BlueTex

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But why would TX specifically be doing so much better than other states in this regard even though other states are supposed to be more competitive? Normally, higher-than-normal turnout suggests bigger D power and so why would that be more pronounced in TX vs others?

All states have similar breakdown of Dem cities and Rep rural



Ok, fair enough. Which numbers did they say are inflated exactly? The early voting numbers that the states are reporting? How can they be inflated?

Could this be having an effect?

O'Rourke's nonprofit organization, Powered By People, has conducted months of groundwork that has led to this final stretch of almost daily phone banks.

The energy that attracted so many to the former U.S. congressman's last two, ultimately unsuccessful, campaigns — trying to oust Texas Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018, then seeking the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020 — appears to still have its draw: O'Rourke has created a network of more than 7,000 volunteers who have made 40 million phone calls and texts and helped register more than 100,000 likely Democrats in Texas.




 

Slavister

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Could this be having an effect?

O'Rourke's nonprofit organization, Powered By People, has conducted months of groundwork that has led to this final stretch of almost daily phone banks.

The energy that attracted so many to the former U.S. congressman's last two, ultimately unsuccessful, campaigns — trying to oust Texas Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018, then seeking the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020 — appears to still have its draw: O'Rourke has created a network of more than 7,000 volunteers who have made 40 million phone calls and texts and helped register more than 100,000 likely Democrats in Texas.





Interesting:

" over 3 million people who registered after the 2016 election. ...

a net gain of 1.8 million since 2016 ...

Texans aren't required to designate a party when they register, but Democratic operatives anticipate at least 60% of these new voters are Democrats because so many of them are young and from communities of color. "

Not sure whether it's 3m or 1.8m (did 1.2m die or move out or unregister since 2016?). Anyways... hopefully "Democratic operatives" are correct.
 

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i'm not counting on Texas turning blue in this election.
I think it will be close, and I will laugh a lot if it happens, but it is neither expected or required.
 

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True I think. In 2016, Trump did not match the general sense of what a conservative was (whereas in 2020, "conservative" may just mean whatever Trump says it means).

Yep, and supposedly conservative Trumpers didn't pick up on that

They poo pooed it instead
 
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