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Texas - going blue?

Slavister

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RCP has TX squarely in Red territory.

ss1.jpg


But ...

(1) Latest poll there is pretty old from 10/5 - 10/6 by *cough* Rasmussen.

(2) Something is going on with early voting in TX. It's ahead of rest of the states in its turnout vs 2016.

43.2% of 2016 votes have already voted in TX. This is by far ahead of all other swing states.

Second one ahead of TX is ... no other than Georgia with 34.5%. MN, WI, MI, NC are all close to 30%. Then come FL (25%), OH (18%) and last PA (dismal, at only 11%).

I wonder if newly coming TX polls will start showing significant change toward Biden...
 
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bongsaway

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I think texas will stay red. They enjoy voting against their own best interests.
 

upsideguy

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I don't think there has been consistent and recent quality polling on Texas. Neither Trump nor Biden is spending much money there, so neither campaign thinks its that much in play. The Lincoln Project has targeted Texas. (https://www.courthousenews.com/lincoln-project-launches-1m-anti-trump-ad-campaign-in-texas/), but a $1M ad buy is peanuts in a $1-2B election.


Texas is a winnable state for Dems, if the Hispanic vote gets out. The reason that the Dems continue to think they can have Texas is that it has favorable blue demographics, its just the Hispanic vote in Texas has always been poor. The early Texas is rockin', however.

538.com has it 70-30 for Trump (kind of similar to the final Clinton/Trump forecast), so its doable, but not likely.

 

Deuce

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It will probably be closer than previous years but I doubt it will nudge over the cliff just yet.
 

Luther

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RCP has TX squarely in Red territory.

View attachment 67300146


But ...

(1) Latest poll there is pretty old from 10/5 - 10/6 by *cough* Rasmussen.

(2) Something is going on with early voting in TX. It's ahead of rest of the states in its turnout vs 2016.

43.2% of 2016 votes have already voted in TX. This is by far ahead of all other swing states.

Second one ahead of TX is ... no other than Georgia with 34.5%. MN, WI, MI, NC are all close to 30%. Then come FL (25%), OH (18%) and last PA (dismal, at only 11%).

I wonder if newly coming TX polls will start showing significant change toward Biden...

Not this time

Maybe in 2024
 

Common Sense 1

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Every election we get the same thing..... Texas is going blue..... Just a big delusion!
 

BlueTex

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Cardinal

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Biden has a 31 in 100 chance of taking Texas, so take that for what it's worth.

For a point of reference, Trump has a 12 in 100 chance of winning re-election.
 

HennyBogan

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What are the Vegas bookies odds?
 

buck

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I think texas will stay red. They enjoy voting against their own best interests.
You can make an argument that so many are fleeing CA for TX that by Texans voting they way they do, they are causing Texas to flourish... causing Californian's to arrive. Those Californian's then vote the way they did in Ca... causing TX to fall. That is the only way it would be against their own interest.
 

skeptic llc

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Every election we get the same thing..... Texas is going blue..... Just a big delusion!
That's how I felt about Michigan and PA supposedly being swing states every election when they always went blue, then 2016 happened ...
 

bongsaway

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Like gun rights, Freedom Etc..?
That is so old already. Every election it's the same thing from the right. You would think folks would catch on after ten elections with none of the doom and gloom predicted by the right happening.
 

skeptic llc

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You can make an argument that so many are fleeing CA for TX that by Texans voting they way they do, they are causing Texas to flourish... causing Californian's to arrive. Those Californian's then vote the way they did in Ca... causing TX to fall. That is the only way it would be against their own interest.
The Californians I know who are fleeing to other states are predominantly moderate Ds, not far left. In large numbers they are likely to moderate the other states, but not push them toward becoming SF. Of course, no idea if the people I happen to know are a representative sample. That said, FWIW, I can't see real leftists having any interest in living in a place like Texas; they prefer to be surrounded by like-minded people just like everyone else.
 

Luther

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That is so old already. Every election it's the same thing from the right. You would think folks would catch on after ten elections with none of the doom and gloom predicted by the right happening.

That is so old already.
Yes, and one you never have an answer for

Every election it's the same thing from the right.
Biden is already saying "this is the most important election ever?"(Like I haven't heard that one before)
 

bongsaway

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You can make an argument that so many are fleeing CA for TX that by Texans voting they way they do, they are causing Texas to flourish... causing Californian's to arrive. Those Californian's then vote the way they did in Ca... causing TX to fall. That is the only way it would be against their own interest.
I have yet to see one person on here saying I'm fleeing california for texas due to taxes. It's generally the right who complains about taxes, then wave their flags declaring they are the true patriots of america and give the bible a few thumps to prove it.

I swear the R's are the true socialists, they want to contribute the least and get the most while enjoying our democratic republic.
 

skeptic llc

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That is so old already. Every election it's the same thing from the right. You would think folks would catch on after ten elections with none of the doom and gloom predicted by the right happening.
I agree about guns, no idea where the generations-long panic comes from there. In terms of freedom, though, while I completely disagree with their vision of it, I think that vision *is* threatened by an infusion of outsiders with different views, just as SF's vision of social justice would be challenged if hundreds of thousands of people moved there from Texas or wherever. No?
 

BlueTex

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The Californians I know who are fleeing to other states are predominantly moderate Ds, not far left. In large numbers they are likely to moderate the other states, but not push them toward becoming SF. Of course, no idea if the people I happen to know are a representative sample. That said, FWIW, I can't see real leftists having any interest in living in a place like Texas; they prefer to be surrounded by like-minded people just like everyone else.

From my experience (know lots and lots of people in residential real estate here) the people who are moving here are doing it for cost of living by and large. There are a few who move here because of the "libs" in California but most are moving because of cost of living and jobs. With remote work now really taking off, the Dallas area is popular because you can fly direct to just about anywhere from here. American Airlines and Southwest are both headquartered in Dallas.
 

skeptic llc

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I have yet to see one person on here saying I'm fleeing california for texas due to taxes. It's generally the right who complains about taxes, then wave their flags declaring they are the true patriots of america and give the bible a few thumps to prove it.

I swear the R's are the true socialists, they want to contribute the least and get the most while enjoying our democratic republic.
I fled California a month ago *largely* due to taxes. Happy to discuss if you're interested.
 

poweRob

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It will happen within the next 10-15 years at most...
I find it funny that republicans love to clamour about how everyone is leaving California. These blue cali's are going somewhere. lol
 
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