Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states

[American]

Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states - POLITICO

Did Donald Trump really just surge past Hillary Clinton in two of the election's most important battlegrounds?
New swing-state polls released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University show Trump leading Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania — and tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio. In three of the states that matter most in November, the surveys point to a race much closer than the national polls, which have Clinton pegged to a significant, mid-single-digit advantage over Trump, suggest.
The race is so close that it's within the margin of error in each of the three states. Trump leads by three points in Florida — the closest state in the 2012 election — 42 percent to 39 percent. In Ohio, the race is tied, 41 percent to 41 percent. And in Pennsylvania — which hasn't voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1988 — Trump leads, 43 percent to 41 percent.
Other polls give Clinton an advantage in all three states. Including the new Quinnipiac surveys, POLITICO’s Battleground State polling average — which include the five most-recent polls in each state — give Clinton a 3.2-point lead in Florida, a 2.8-point edge in Ohio and a larger, 4.6-point advantage in Pennsylvania.

Looks like Hillary isn't stomping Trump like they had thought.

 

[Abbazorkzog]

Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states - POLITICO


Looks like Hillary isn't stomping Trump like they had thought.

President Trump will unite the country against him.

Like it or not, we need Trump in the White House. We need change. We need a wake-up call.

 

[haymarket]

Trump had a really bad June and has now put a few pieces back together as he strives to curb his own excesses of bombastic personality. In the meantime, Clinton has had a pretty rough couple of weeks with the FBI report showing she was reckless. Combine those two arcs and we get the latest poll results.

I still maintain that after September and October, Clinton will have a firm lead and win by at least five points - perhaps as much as eight and pretty much duplicate the last electoral college numbers as well.

The reason for this is basic demographics. Trump simply has nowhere to go but down when two out of every three women voters reject the idea of voting for him and minorities spurn him as well. Trump would have to win almost 70% of the white male vote and barring some international crisis demanding a strong authoritarian dictator type - I just do not see that happening.

To compare this to boxing, Trump has had a good round of late while Clinton has stumbled and hit the canvas. But there are still ten rounds to go and Trump knows precious little of that territory and his skill set simply does not lend itself to being able to win those last rounds.

 

[Abbazorkzog]

Trump had a really bad June and has now put a few pieces back together as he strives to curb his own excesses of bombastic personality. In the meantime, Clinton has had a pretty rough couple of weeks with the FBI report showing she was reckless. Combine those two arcs and we get the latest poll results.

I still maintain that after September and October, Clinton will have a firm lead and win by at least five points - perhaps as much as eight and pretty much duplicate the last electoral college numbers as well.

The reason for this is basic demographics. Trump simply has nowhere to go but down when two out of every three women voters reject the idea of voting for him and minorities spurn him as well. Trump would have to win almost 70% of the white male vote and barring some international crisis demanding a strong authoritarian dictator type - I just do not see that happening.

To compare this to boxing, Trump has had a good round of late while Clinton has stumbled and hit the canvas. But there are still ten rounds to go and Trump knows precious little of that territory and his skill set simply does not lend itself to being able to win those last rounds.

A fair point. Hillary will likely become the next President, although it is beginning to look like no matter which one becomes President, within 4 years of this we will see a virtually identical outcome - record-high civil discontent with the Federal Government, likely abroad and internationally as well.

 

[RetiredUSN]

Hillary and her media counterparts will be increasing the intensity of barrages on Trump between now and voting day. It will be interesting to see Trump's reaction, and how he composes himself during the interim.

 

[haymarket]

A fair point. Hillary will likely become the next President, although it is beginning to look like no matter which one becomes President, within 4 years of this we will see a virtually identical outcome - record-high civil discontent with the Federal Government, likely abroad and internationally as well.

Agreed. Four years of Clinton is not something which will propel our nation forward but four years of Trump would put us far behind even where we are now. Its not something which is going be looked upon as our glory days.

 

[LowDown]

Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states - POLITICO


Looks like Hillary isn't stomping Trump like they had thought.

The way this is going Trump is going to be elected President.

Astonishing.



That's me on the left.

 

[pilot16]

A lot of HRC supporters are being overly optimistic and not facing reality. There is a huge anti establishment populist movement. Sanders tapped into it and Trump did. With Sanders no longer in the game, its not surprising those in certain rust belt and coal states are heading to Trump. They aren't in the stock market and they don't see things as wonderful economically. Sanders got it, Clinton doesn't. If Clinton doesn't get it, she will lose. People are angrier than we think deep under the surface.

 

[X Factor]

Seriously, how on earth did we get to the point that these are our two choices? It's like we chose the bottom of the barrel on purpose.

 

[American]

The way this is going Trump is going to be elected President.

Astonishing.

View attachment 67204130

That's me on the left.

That was primary stuff, but he cartoon is funny.

 

[Kobie]

Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states - POLITICO


Looks like Hillary isn't stomping Trump like they had thought.

Trump has about a 5-to-10 point bump in every Quinnipiac poll. It's an outlier.

 

[pilot16]

Seriously, how on earth did we get to the point that these are our two choices? It's like we chose the bottom of the barrel on purpose.

I keep hearing Lindsey Graham in my head, "would you rather be shot or poisoned?" lol

 

[American]

Trump has about a 5-to-10 point bump in every Quinnipiac poll. It's an outlier.

Of course it is.

 

[pilot16]

Trump has about a 5-to-10 point bump in every Quinnipiac poll. It's an outlier.

A Monmouth poll came out this morning as well. Seems Trump is way up with the under 50 crowd in Iowa.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IA_071216/

 

[American]

I keep hearing Lindsey Graham in my head, "would you rather be shot or poisoned?" lol

Lindsey Graham is an establishment shill.

 

[Kobie]

Of course it is.

Why do Q's polls differ so starkly from the others? Do you know what an outlier is? Or has your recent yet oh-so-predictable Trump fanboism warped your understanding of how polls work?

 

[Kobie]

Lindsey Graham is an establishment shill.

Since when were you against the "establishment"?

 

[X Factor]

I keep hearing Lindsey Graham in my head, "would you rather be shot or poisoned?" lol

And I keep hear Lindsey Lohan in my head, "**** it all, let's just smoke crack until this is all over".


(Ok, no idea if she's ever said anything like that, but the point is that she could have).

 

[pilot16]

Why do Q's polls differ so starkly from the others? Do you know what an outlier is? Or has your recent yet oh-so-predictable Trump fanboism warped your understanding of how polls work?

Polls are all over the place because its early. If we want to look at this race honestly, we can look at the states. I would guess approximately 35-40 states are already in the bag. We know who is going to win those. The game will be won or lost in the other 10 or so. States like MI,OH,FL,VA,WI,PA. I think had Sanders won the nomination, this race would be all over. He would easily have won coal country, steel country and the unions. Now its anybodys guess. If Clinton cant convince these states she is really going to overturn the TPP (Pres Obama is expected to sign it this fall) and she goes all in for gun control, she will be in big trouble.

 

[code1211]

Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states - POLITICO


Looks like Hillary isn't stomping Trump like they had thought.

I will be very interested in seeing the Presidential debates.

I wouldn't be surprised if they got some pretty lofty ratings.

It seems to me that Trump is adjusting his style in the lead up to the convention.

 

[ttwtt78640]

Trump had a really bad June and has now put a few pieces back together as he strives to curb his own excesses of bombastic personality. In the meantime, Clinton has had a pretty rough couple of weeks with the FBI report showing she was reckless. Combine those two arcs and we get the latest poll results.

I still maintain that after September and October, Clinton will have a firm lead and win by at least five points - perhaps as much as eight and pretty much duplicate the last electoral college numbers as well.

The reason for this is basic demographics. Trump simply has nowhere to go but down when two out of every three women voters reject the idea of voting for him and minorities spurn him as well. Trump would have to win almost 70% of the white male vote and barring some international crisis demanding a strong authoritarian dictator type - I just do not see that happening.

To compare this to boxing, Trump has had a good round of late while Clinton has stumbled and hit the canvas. But there are still ten rounds to go and Trump knows precious little of that territory and his skill set simply does not lend itself to being able to win those last rounds.

The FBI report showed that HRC openly lied to all of us on multiple occasions. That minor character flaw (according to her supporters) may turn out to not be simply a temporary setback outside of the solid blue states. Unlike boxing, it is not up to a few sage judges to render a split decision which all must accept.

 

[haymarket]

The FBI report showed that HRC openly lied to all of us on multiple occasions. That minor character flaw (according to her supporters) may turn out to not be simply a temporary setback outside of the solid blue states. Unlike boxing, it is not up to a few sage judges to render a split decision which all must accept.

That is very true as we are all judges in this bout. But the demographics are still so badly against Trump being able to win and we still have yet to see the ads that will make the nation despise the man all through September and October.

 

[code1211]

Trump had a really bad June and has now put a few pieces back together as he strives to curb his own excesses of bombastic personality. In the meantime, Clinton has had a pretty rough couple of weeks with the FBI report showing she was reckless. Combine those two arcs and we get the latest poll results.

I still maintain that after September and October, Clinton will have a firm lead and win by at least five points - perhaps as much as eight and pretty much duplicate the last electoral college numbers as well.

The reason for this is basic demographics. Trump simply has nowhere to go but down when two out of every three women voters reject the idea of voting for him and minorities spurn him as well. Trump would have to win almost 70% of the white male vote and barring some international crisis demanding a strong authoritarian dictator type - I just do not see that happening.

To compare this to boxing, Trump has had a good round of late while Clinton has stumbled and hit the canvas. But there are still ten rounds to go and Trump knows precious little of that territory and his skill set simply does not lend itself to being able to win those last rounds.

What happens when the 24/7 review of Benghazi, Hillary's cover ups and the email/classified document stuff gets aired.

There really has been no counter punching delivered at Hillary at all. She did very little as a Senator and she was a disaster as the Secretary of State.

Reckless? Deliberately entering into a conspiracy to circumvent the laws of the USA for her own benefit strikes me not as reckless, but rather as very careful and very devious.

This careful deviousness is not a one off, but rather an ongoing demonstration of the flaunting of the law that she knows will not be enforced fairly or appropriately. The selective enforcement of law is a tool used by this administration to punish and reward.

 

[code1211]

Agreed. Four years of Clinton is not something which will propel our nation forward but four years of Trump would put us far behind even where we are now. Its not something which is going be looked upon as our glory days.

Far behind in what way?

 

[ttwtt78640]

That is very true as we are all judges in this bout. But the demographics are still so badly against Trump being able to win and we still have yet to see the ads that will make the nation despise the man all through September and October.

That (bolded above) is precisely my point - 15% will never buy a new product, 15% will try anything new and the rest is driven largely by advertising and salesmanship.