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SUFFOLK POLL SHOWS NEVADA VOTERS SIGNALING SHIFT TO GOP

Tender Branson

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State economy woes, rising inflation, and dissatisfaction with Biden hurting Democratic incumbents in battleground state

A Suffolk University/Reno Gazette Journal poll of likely midterm voters shows Republicans are leading in both the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races, signaling a shift rightward in voter sentiment.

In the U.S. Senate race, the Democratic incumbent, Catherine Cortez Masto, narrowly trails both Republicans vying for the seat, Republican Adam Laxalt 40%-43%, and Republican Sam Brown 39%-40%. The seat, which if lost by Masto in November, could threaten Democratic control of the Senate and President Biden’s agenda.

In the governor’s race, the Democratic incumbent, Steve Sisolak, led Republicans Guy Nohra (41%-29%) and Joey Gilbert (39%-35%), but trailed Republicans Joe Lombardo (37%-39%) and John Lee (37%-40%). Sisolak was tied with Republican Dean Heller 39%-39%. In all five ballot tests Sisolak tallied at or below 41%.

Both races’ survey results are within the margin of error.

Nevada’s voters are anything but apathetic heading into the midterm elections. Nearly eight in 10 voters (78%) say they are extremely or very interested in the U.S. Senate race.

“Because they are established brands, when an incumbent polls under 50%, he or she is deemed vulnerable,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “Moreover, when incumbents poll at or below 40% it is much worse, because it is very difficult to convince undecideds to vote for you when they remain undecided despite telling us that they are very interested in voting in this election.”

A bleak outlook by voters on the Nevada economy is a chief cause of voter discontent. More than seven in 10 (72%) rated economic conditions in Nevada as fair or poor, while just 25% indicated they are excellent or good.

And by a two-to-one margin, 40% of midterm voters say their standard of living is worse than it was four years ago, while 20% indicated better and 40% say it has stayed the same. Asked to choose from a list of the most important issues facing Nevada this year, over 25% indicated inflation, followed by jobs/economy (15%), Russia/Ukraine war (10%), climate change (10%), schools/education (9%), affordable housing (8%), and crime/guns (8%).

Biden is struggling among voters who propelled him to victory in November 2020. Just 35% approve of the job he is doing as president, while 59% disapprove. Nearly half of voters (47%) want their vote this November to change the direction Biden is leading the nation, while 27% say they want their vote to support Biden’s direction. Twenty-one percent say that their vote this November doesn’t have much to do with Biden and his policies.

Methodology​

The statewide survey of 500 Nevada likely voters was conducted April 2-6 using live telephone interviews of households where respondents indicated they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the November 2022 general election for governor and U.S. Senate. Each area’s quota and demographic information — including party affiliation, education, race and age — was determined from midterm exit polls and 2020 census data. The 16 Nevada counties as well as Carson City were grouped into three general regions. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Suffolk University poll student Mikaela Linder contributed questions to this survey as part of her independent study. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, dpaleologos@suffolk.edu.



Uh-oh.
 

bluesmoke

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Unbelievable. People paying attention to those saying something than to those saying nothing.
 

Tender Branson

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Nevada had the 5th highest unemployment rate of the US in February at 5.4%

Maybe this has to do with the hotel and tourism industry there, which has not at all recovered from the Covid situation, unlike other sectors of the economy.

I also think that NV has a lot of working class employees who are earning just minimum wage or just above ...
 

Schism

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Poll Shows That Inflation Is Turning Latino Voters Against Democrats
Results suggested that many of the respondents felt isolated from both the Democrat and Republican parties, but more felt that the Republicans were stronger on the economy. “Getting prices under control is very clearly the number one priority for the majority of Hispanics and Latinos, and it underscores the challenges Biden is facing now,” Ipsos pollster and senior vice president Chris Jackson told Axios.

In December 2021, COVID-19 was the top concern for 37% for those surveyed. By March 2022, only 21% of the respondents noted COVID-19 as their leading worry. There was also a clear drop in the number of respondents who said they intended to vote during the Midterms from 45% in December to 40% in March.

The poll is the latest to show Latino and Hispanic voters leaving the Democrat party behind. Though most polls have found an almost even split between each party, support for the Republicans has grown steadily since December.
 

Schism

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Nevada ranks 38th in state rankings, plus, has the wonderful distinction of being the 2th worst educated state. (Oklahoma grabs the trophy as the worst)

Yeah, the best strategy for you and your team is to shit on people.
 

Callen

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Nevada is one of the States I am concerned about in the Senate races.
 

Paradoxical

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State economy woes, rising inflation, and dissatisfaction with Biden hurting Democratic incumbents in battleground state

A Suffolk University/Reno Gazette Journal poll of likely midterm voters shows Republicans are leading in both the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races, signaling a shift rightward in voter sentiment.

In the U.S. Senate race, the Democratic incumbent, Catherine Cortez Masto, narrowly trails both Republicans vying for the seat, Republican Adam Laxalt 40%-43%, and Republican Sam Brown 39%-40%. The seat, which if lost by Masto in November, could threaten Democratic control of the Senate and President Biden’s agenda.

In the governor’s race, the Democratic incumbent, Steve Sisolak, led Republicans Guy Nohra (41%-29%) and Joey Gilbert (39%-35%), but trailed Republicans Joe Lombardo (37%-39%) and John Lee (37%-40%). Sisolak was tied with Republican Dean Heller 39%-39%. In all five ballot tests Sisolak tallied at or below 41%.

Both races’ survey results are within the margin of error.

Nevada’s voters are anything but apathetic heading into the midterm elections. Nearly eight in 10 voters (78%) say they are extremely or very interested in the U.S. Senate race.

“Because they are established brands, when an incumbent polls under 50%, he or she is deemed vulnerable,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “Moreover, when incumbents poll at or below 40% it is much worse, because it is very difficult to convince undecideds to vote for you when they remain undecided despite telling us that they are very interested in voting in this election.”

A bleak outlook by voters on the Nevada economy is a chief cause of voter discontent. More than seven in 10 (72%) rated economic conditions in Nevada as fair or poor, while just 25% indicated they are excellent or good.

And by a two-to-one margin, 40% of midterm voters say their standard of living is worse than it was four years ago, while 20% indicated better and 40% say it has stayed the same. Asked to choose from a list of the most important issues facing Nevada this year, over 25% indicated inflation, followed by jobs/economy (15%), Russia/Ukraine war (10%), climate change (10%), schools/education (9%), affordable housing (8%), and crime/guns (8%).

Biden is struggling among voters who propelled him to victory in November 2020. Just 35% approve of the job he is doing as president, while 59% disapprove. Nearly half of voters (47%) want their vote this November to change the direction Biden is leading the nation, while 27% say they want their vote to support Biden’s direction. Twenty-one percent say that their vote this November doesn’t have much to do with Biden and his policies.

Methodology​

The statewide survey of 500 Nevada likely voters was conducted April 2-6 using live telephone interviews of households where respondents indicated they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the November 2022 general election for governor and U.S. Senate. Each area’s quota and demographic information — including party affiliation, education, race and age — was determined from midterm exit polls and 2020 census data. The 16 Nevada counties as well as Carson City were grouped into three general regions. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Suffolk University poll student Mikaela Linder contributed questions to this survey as part of her independent study. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, dpaleologos@suffolk.edu.



Uh-oh.
The Democrats will take a shellacking come November. Many have already hit the exits.
 

Paradoxical

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Nevada is one of the States I am concerned about in the Senate races.
You should be concerned about many more. By November, Biden's popularity will be lower than Putins
 

NuffSaid

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Let the people vote.
Then lets see what great kept promises the right will hold near and dear.

So far all I hear is banning books, CRT, and abortion.

Dunno how that helps the average voter when it comes to reducing food and gas costs, but hey. Sometimes diving into the shallow end of an empty pool is what is needed.
 

highroller

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Let the people vote.
Then lets see what great kept promises the right will hold near and dear.

So far all I hear is banning books, CRT, and abortion.

Dunno how that helps the average voter when it comes to reducing food and gas costs, but hey. Sometimes diving into the shallow end of an empty pool is what is needed.

What more does Cletus need?
 

Jkca1

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Nevada had the 5th highest unemployment rate of the US in February at 5.4%

Maybe this has to do with the hotel and tourism industry there, which has not at all recovered from the Covid situation, unlike other sectors of the economy.

I also think that NV has a lot of working class employees who are earning just minimum wage or just above ...
Good reply. There are lots of negatives facing the democrats there in November. Many workers in NV depend on tips to supplement their incomes. Inflation is going to be the democratic party killer;

"consumer prices spiked 8.5% in the 12 months ending in March" https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...e-and-watching-this-number-instead/ar-AAW8dT4
 

tres borrachos

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Nevada had the 5th highest unemployment rate of the US in February at 5.4%

Maybe this has to do with the hotel and tourism industry there, which has not at all recovered from the Covid situation, unlike other sectors of the economy.

I also think that NV has a lot of working class employees who are earning just minimum wage or just above ...

Can you cite your sources that say Nevada has "not at all" recovered from Covid? I was just there not too long ago and it looked almost virtually like it did in 2019.
 

Tender Branson

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Can you cite your sources that say Nevada has "not at all" recovered from Covid? I was just there not too long ago and it looked almost virtually like it did in 2019.

I don't know anything NV-specific, but I recently saw the new jobs report for the US which - while just 500k jobs below the February 2020 high - still had several million fewer hotel and vacation jobs than before Covid, while other sectors actually already had more than in 2019.

Nevada is a big tourist & leisure state, so one would think it's lagging a bit behind pre-Covid.
 

iguanaman

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Good reply. There are lots of negatives facing the democrats there in November. Many workers in NV depend on tips to supplement their incomes. Inflation is going to be the democratic party killer;

"consumer prices spiked 8.5% in the 12 months ending in March" https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...e-and-watching-this-number-instead/ar-AAW8dT4
It would be nice if Republicans had some plan to reduce inflation. Their go to plan in the past is recession and I don't think that is what voters are looking for.

Democratic presidents keep having to save the US economy after Republican presidents run it into the ground​

Republican recessions

It seems quaint compared to 2008 or our current crisis, but President George H. W. Bush ended his one term in office in recession. After what was then the longest period of peacetime economic expansion in US history, in July 1990 the country entered a recession that saw unemployment rise to a peak of 7.8% in June 1992.

His challenger Bill Clinton made the economic pain that families were feeling the mantra of his campaign and handily beat Bush, who came across as out of touch with working Americans.

One of Clinton's first legislative achievements was an economic recovery bill that, among other things, put a greater tax burden on the wealthy and increased tax credits and wage subsidies for the working poor. As a result, during his eight years in office, Clinton oversaw economic growth that averaged 3.5% annual GDP growth but topped 4% throughout his second term. Unemployment fell from 7.4% to 3.9%, and the labor market added an average of 2.9 million jobs per year.

Much like the GOP did with Carter, Democrats need to make the Bushes and particularly Trump their punching bag for the next generation. The Democrats need to make it clear that they are the stewards of steady, strong economic growth and are always cleaning up after the GOP.

In most election years, voters think first about the economy and their own pocketbooks. That is the primary driver of most elections at most levels. Every Democrat needs to make the contrast in economic success their mantra – for the sake of the party and the country.

Repeat after me: The last three Republican presidencies ended in economic turmoil.

https://www.businessinsider.com/gop...-recession-democrat-presidents-save-it-2021-1
 

Tender Branson

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Only 8 of the 35 Senate races are kinda competitive in November:

# Nevada (D)
# Arizona (D)
# Wisconsin (R)
# Ohio (R)
# Pennsylvania (R)
# New Hampshire (D)
# North Carolina (R)
# Georgia (D)

4 others could be:

# Florida (R)
# Missouri (R)
# Colorado (D)
# Washington (D)

FL is about Rubio+10% in polling. Not really competitive in a R wave.

Missouri is moving away from being competitive, because disgraced former governor Greitens (R) is falling behind in the R primary. He only tied Dems in the general election in November polls, but the other Rs are 15% ahead of Democrats in polling.

Colorado and Washington are currently D+10 or more in polls. Usually not competitive, but could tighten later in a R wave.
 

Taylor

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It would be nice if Republicans had some plan to reduce inflation. Their go to plan in the past is recession and I don't think that is what voters are looking for.
Seems that's the Democrat plan...

 

Paradoxical

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Putin's is the same as Trump's popularity, they go hand and hand. Same group of people like both.
Let me ask you. Did Putin invade Ukraine under Biden or Trump? I forget.
 

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Let the people vote.
Then lets see what great kept promises the right will hold near and dear.

So far all I hear is banning books, CRT, and abortion.

Dunno how that helps the average voter when it comes to reducing food and gas costs, but hey. Sometimes diving into the shallow end of an empty pool is what is needed.
Democrats control the House, the Sente and the White House. If voters would rather cast their ballots for people talking about 'CRT and abortion' then you can only conclude that your side is doing an incredibly shitty job of governing. Maybe its your agenda the public doesnt like. Ever think of that?
 

iguanaman

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Let me ask you. Did Putin invade Ukraine under Biden or Trump? I forget.
Putin tried other means to undermine the Ukraine Govt. during Trump. Like blackmailing them with the threat to withhold aid if they didn't make false claims about Hunter and Joe. His decision to invade came after those efforts failed because Zelensky did not fall for the ruse. Nothing pisses off Putin more than integrity.
 

iguanaman

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All of a sudden you don't like your own metric? 😂
What I know is that Republicans love recessions so much they have them every time they are in power. Recessions depress wages and the rich get richer.
 
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