Sturgis rally linked to 15 Minnesota COVID-19 cases, including 1 hospitalization

[Drawdown]

You are the one who couldnt figure out reality until it was spelled out for him. Nobody was discussing masks or Walmart...you made a statement that positively declared that if those people didnt spread it in Sturgis, they would have spread it anyway elsewhere.

Welcome to me providing your free introduction to re-writing ideas for 3rd graders.

You have not refuted and I have not contradicted a single thing I posted. People who took off for a festival clearly didn't know they had the virus and ergo would have been out spreading it whether they were in South Dakota or South America.

 

[Tahuyaman]

That is one of the most egregiously idiotic statements I've read on this site. That's an accomplishment.

We've been at this for over 6 months and the thinking (of some) hasn't progressed in all that time.

My thinking has progressed over the last six months or so. Six months ago I didn't consider it much of a threat to me, my family or my friends. I think it's less of a threat today.

 

[Lursa]

You have not refuted and I have not contradicted a single thing I posted. People who took off for a festival clearly didn't know they had the virus and ergo would have been out spreading it whether they were in South Dakota or South America.

Nope...infected or not, Americans are supposed to be a) wearing masks, b) social distancing, and/or c) both.

This is the barely coherent and grammatically inept speech of a man who desperately wants to be able to claim that he "cured coronavirus."

That's it, in a nutshell. When we do get a handle on this crisis, he wants to be able to pull out footage and declare "I called it! I said use this! I said try this! I told them to do this, it was my idea!" He's just doing it with lots of stupid stuff because he doesnt want to miss an opportunity. He's afraid 'the big one' will be mentioned and he wont get credit for it.

It's all about declaring himself the savior of the cv crisis and we'll hear all about it, esp in his campaign. (Which is basically each of his press briefings these days) --- Lursa

 

[NWRatCon]

Sturgis is going to present an interesting (at least thought) math/science problem.

Although it was estimated that there would be 250,000 attendees, it appears that it was closer to 400,000, when vendors, temporary employees, etc. are included. Most attended the majority of the 10-day run of the event (apparently, and for purposes of argument). There are currently 2.5 million active COVID cases in the United States. Approximately 20% of those are likely contagious (at least for purposes of this thought experiment), or about 500,000. That represents about .0015 of the population. Applying that factor to the Sturgis attendees, given that they came from all over, one can presume that there were about 610 active COVID cases in that crowd.

7 days represents the approximate incubation period for COVID, meaning that those 600 or so attendees would have reached maximum viral load during that period. About 20% (120) would have shown some symptoms (although much of it might have been masked by the prodigious alcohol consumption) and another 20% would have been asymptomatic but contagious (estimates vary). For purposes of our thought experiment, let's say 240 of the attendees could have been contagious at some point during the event. The R0 of COVID is calculated to be between 1.4 and 4, with the most accepted figure being 2.5. That means, absent other factors (masking, social distancing, hand hygiene - none of which were in view), an infected person can spread the disease to an average of 2.5 other people. Using that baseline, we can assume that about 600 more people left Sturgis infected than arrived there that way. Again, only about 120 of them will become symptomatic, but 240 will be "contagious". Initially, 22 people have been identified as having contracted the disease at the event. That is "in line with" the figures above (240÷10 day incubation period).

Given all of that, we can expect, over the next week or so, that there will eventually be 1200-1800 new cases from the event. Unfortunately, most States do not have adequate contact tracing in place, and given the nature of the event, accurate contact tracing will be nearly impossible.

Making a further observation, I believe the population that attended Sturgis is particularly resistant to preventative measures. It is likely, therefore, that they will represent a particularly virulent outbreak, but it will be disbursed throughout the country. I would estimate the impact to be in the neighborhood of 10,000 cases, 2000 hospitalizations and 200 deaths directly attributable to the event. YMMV.

 

[Threegoofs]

Sturgis is going to present an interesting (at least thought) math/science problem.

Although it was estimated that there would be 250,000 attendees, it appears that it was closer to 400,000, when vendors, temporary employees, etc. are included. Most attended the majority of the 10-day run of the event (apparently, and for purposes of argument). There are currently 2.5 million active COVID cases in the United States. Approximately 20% of those are likely contagious (at least for purposes of this thought experiment), or about 500,000. That represents about .0015 of the population. Applying that factor to the Sturgis attendees, given that they came from all over, one can presume that there were about 610 active COVID cases in that crowd.

7 days represents the approximate incubation period for COVID, meaning that those 600 or so attendees would have reached maximum viral load during that period. About 20% (120) would have shown some symptoms (although much of it might have been masked by the prodigious alcohol consumption) and another 20% would have been asymptomatic but contagious (estimates vary). For purposes of or thought experiment, let's say 240 of the attendees could have been contagious at some point during the event. The R0 of COVID is calculated to be between 1.4 and 4, with the most accepted figure being 2.5. That means, absent other factors (masking, social distancing, hand hygiene - none of which were in view), an infected person can spread the disease to an average of 2.5 other people. Using that baseline, we can assume that about 600 more people left Sturgis infected than arrived there that way. Again, only about 120 of them will become symptomatic, but 240 will be "contagious". Initially, 22 people have been identified as having contracted the disease at the event. That is "in line with" the figures above (240÷10 day incubation period).

Given all of that, we can expect, over the next week or so, that there will eventually be 1200-1800 new cases from the event. Unfortunately, most States do not have adequate contact tracing in place, and given the nature of the event, accurate contact tracing will be nearly impossible.

Making a further observation, I believe the population that attended Sturgis ISS particularly resistant to preventative measures. It is likely, therefore, that they will represent a particularly virulent outbreak, but it will be discussed throughout the country. I would estimate the impact to be in thre neighborhood of 10,000 cases, 2000 hospitalizations and 200 deaths directly attributable to the event. YMMV.

2.5 is assuming normal conditions.

This could be an order of magnitude higher when placed into high risk situations- indoor bars and restaurants, churches (not sure if that applies much here- but there’s probably Bikers for Jesus or something), etc.

Heck- there’s been many reports of one person infecting dozens or hundreds from indoor air circulation- even in rooms the infected person never entered!

 

[NWRatCon]

2.5 is assuming normal conditions.

This could be an order of magnitude higher when placed into high risk situations- indoor bars and restaurants, churches (not sure if that applies much here- but there’s probably Bikers for Jesus or something), etc.

Heck- there’s been many reports of one person infecting dozens or hundreds from indoor air circulation- even in rooms the infected person never entered!

I don't disagree. As I said, "YMMV" - Your Math May Vary. I thought, though, that it would be a good way to quantify, at least theoretically, the probable impact of Sturgis. I don't think it should be overblown, but I suspect it will probably be more on the order of 100,000 cases and 2000 deaths. I just don't want to be alarmist.

I agree with it being a probable "super-spreader" event. I use the conservative end of the R0 because it is the average, in normal circumstances (super-spreaders do figure into that average). I don't think Sturgis represents "normal". It was probably a much more significant vector than anything we've seen to date, and the potential ramifications are large, but evidence will be extremely hard to come by. By next month no more than a dozen people will acknowledge having been there, and most will claim that their Harleys are bicycles that they ride for their health. "That's just someone who looks like me."

 

[NWRatCon]

States starting to report COVID-19 cases traced to Sturgis rally: Sturgis plans mass testing of its own residents next week (Autoblog).

Sturgis is planning to conduct mass testing of its residents next week in an attempt to stem a possible outbreak of infections from the rally.

The rally news comes amid an increase in the COVID-19 infection rate in South Dakota. Health officials reported Thursday that there were 125 new confirmed cases of the disease and two new deaths. Over the past two weeks, the average number of daily new cases has increased by 32, which is an increase of about 43%.

And so it begins...

 

[Threegoofs]

States starting to report COVID-19 cases traced to Sturgis rally: Sturgis plans mass testing of its own residents next week (Autoblog). And so it begins...

I mean... who could have predicted that might happen?

Amirite?

 

[NWRatCon]

I mean... who could have predicted that might happen?

Amirite?

Trump on Coronavirus: "Nobody Could Have Predicted Something Like This" (except of course, everyone that did); "Nobody knew that health care could be so complicated"

Here's the reality of what nobody could forsee: Two decades of pandemic war games failed to account for Donald Trump (Nature)

Event 201 was one of dozens of simulations and evaluations over the past two decades that have highlighted the risks of a pandemic and identified gaps in the ability of governments and organizations around the world to respond.

The exercises anticipated several failures that have played out in the management of COVID-19, including leaky travel bans, medical-equipment shortages, massive disorganization, misinformation and a scramble for vaccines. But the scenarios didn’t anticipate some of the problems that have plagued the pandemic response, such as a shortfall of diagnostic tests, and world leaders who reject the advice of public-health specialists.

 

[NWRatCon]

Health departments in four states, including South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska and Wyoming, have reported a total of 81 cases among people who attended the rally. South Dakota health officials said Monday they had received reports of infections from residents of two other states — North Dakota and Washington. The Department of Health also issued public warnings of possible COVID-19 exposure at five businesses popular with bikers, saying it didn’t know how many people could have been exposed.

Revved by Sturgis Rally, COVID-19 infections move fast, far (AP) [Hate that headline]
From 22, we now have 81 confirmed cases.

events like Sturgis concern health experts, who see infections growing without regard to city and state boundaries. Without a nationally-coordinated testing and tracing system, containing infections in a scenario like Sturgis is “almost impossible,” said Dr. Howard Koh, a professor at the Harvard School of Public Health who worked at the Department of Health and Human Services under former President Barack Obama.

“We would need a finely orchestrated national system and we are far from that,” he said. “We are really witnessing a 50-state effort with all of them going in different directions right now.”

 

[NWRatCon]

Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Linked To More Than 100 Infections In At Least 8 States (Forbes)[&others]

A motorcycle rally held earlier this month in South Dakota has been linked to at least 122 coronavirus cases across eight states, health officials said, marking an increase in infections associated with the rally from just last week.

that's an increase of 40+in 24 hours.

By Tuesday, cases connected to the rally have been found in eight states: Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, Montana and Wyoming, according to the Associated Press.

This morning it was 103:
SD: 37
MN: 27
ND: 17
Neb.: 7
Wyo.: 7
Mont.: 5
Wisc.: 2
Wash: 1

 

[year2late]

It's a SUPER SPREADER I TELL YA!!!
I wonder how many cases spark clusters on any given night during the Portland riots? I mean, I think if you're close enough to beat a person half to death, you're close enough to spread covid.

I was actually curious, with all the protesting an accompanying rioting you would think that they would be surging like crazy

Oregon Coronavirus Map and Case Count - The New York Times

Probably because most are protesters with masks and outside and not wedged in together are a distinct majority.

 

[Threegoofs]

I was actually curious, with all the protesting an accompanying rioting you would think that they would be surging like crazy

Oregon Coronavirus Map and Case Count - The New York Times

Probably because most are protesters with masks and outside and not wedged in together are a distinct majority.

Not a thing.

 

[NWRatCon]

Coronavirus: First COVID-19 death linked to Sturgis Motorcycle Rally confirmed (Fox, local).

The death is the first known coronavirus-related fatality linked to the annual 10-day rally that concluded Aug. 16 and attracted more than 460,000 vehicles, according to figures compiled by South Dakota’s Department of Transportation.

Within 10 days of the rally’s conclusion, more than 100 COVID-19 cases linked to the gathering had been confirmed in eight states. By Wednesday, at least 260 cases in 11 states have been tied directly to the event, according to a survey of health departments by The Washington Post.