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Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Is Now Linked to More Than 250,000 Coronavirus Cases

In other words, rather than actually look at the study, and give an anaylsys that actually counters it, you hand wave things away. Do you have any comment that actually addresses the data?

"Not peer reviewed" means it's nothing, zero value.
 
How much of a total ****ing idiot do you have to be to not know that a motorcycle rally like this was going to spread COVID across the United States?
 
NINETEEN per cent of August infections from one macho meeting!
 
I don't do this for just anyone darlin', here ya' go.
try duckduckgo ... enter covid weekly
or:
COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics
Well, you demonstrated your selective ignorance immediately. Congratulations, I guess. ("Sure, I knew you could.")

All you really did was establish apparent gross ignorance about how science, epidemiology, and CDC numbers actually work. That is seriously, seriously ignorant. I don't think you're stupid, but I also know, now, that you are either incredibly misinformed, or being deliberately deceptive. You claimed "the CDC just reissued the actual death due singularly to cv is less than 10,000." Which is not supported by the data.

Before I unload, though, do you have any idea what these "provisional numbers" mean? I need to know how basic to get.
 
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Well, you demonstrated your selective ignorance immediately. Congratulations, I guess. ("Sure, I knew you could.")

All you really did was establish apparent gross ignorance about how science, epidemiology, and CDC numbers actually work. That is seriously, seriously ignorant. I don't think you're stupid, but I also know, now, that you are either incredibly misinformed, or being deliberately deceptive. You claimed "the CDC just reissued the actual death due singularly to cv is less than 10,000." Which is not supported by the data.

Before I unload, though, do you have any idea what these "provisional numbers" mean? I need to know how basic to get.

I presented the article. It seems you didn't read it or view the charts.
you're arguing with the wrong guy... you need to attack the CDC; tell them they need to defend their statement.

From the article:
Note: Provisional death counts are based on death certificate data received and coded by the National Center for Health Statistics as of September 2, 2020. Death counts are delayed and may differ from other published sources (see Technical Notes). Counts will be updated every Wednesday by 5pm. Additional information will be added to this site as available.

Understanding the Numbers: Provisional Death Counts and COVID-19

Provisional death counts deliver the most complete and accurate picture of lives lost to COVID-19. They are based on death certificates, which are the most reliable source of data and contain information not available anywhere else, including comorbid conditions, race and ethnicity, and place of death.
How it Works

The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) uses incoming data from death certificates to produce provisional COVID-19 death counts. These include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

NCHS also provides summaries that examine deaths in specific categories and in greater geographic detail, such as deaths by county and by race and Hispanic origin.

COVID-19 deaths are identified using a new ICD–10 code. When COVID-19 is reported as a cause of death – or when it is listed as a “probable” or “presumed” cause — the death is coded as U07.1. This can include cases with or without laboratory confirmation.
Why These Numbers are Different

Provisional death counts may not match counts from other sources, such as media reports or numbers from county health departments. Counts by NCHS often track 1–2 weeks behind other data.

Death certificates take time to be completed. There are many steps to filling out and submitting a death certificate. Waiting for test results can create additional delays.
States report at different rates. Currently, 63% of all U.S. deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, but there is significant variation between states.
It takes extra time to code COVID-19 deaths. While 80% of deaths are electronically processed and coded by NCHS within minutes, most deaths from COVID-19 must be coded by a person, which takes an average of 7 days.
Other reporting systems use different definitions or methods for counting deaths.

Things to know about the data

Provisional counts are not final and are subject to change. Counts from previous weeks are continually revised as more records are received and processed.

Provisional data are not yet complete. Counts will not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for more recent periods. However, we can estimate how complete our numbers are by looking at the average number of deaths reported in previous years.

Death counts should not be compared across states. Some states report deaths on a daily basis, while other states report deaths weekly or monthly. State vital record reporting may also be affected or delayed by COVID-19 related response activities.

For more detailed technical information, visit the Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Technical Notes page.

NOTE: Do with this info what you will.
I'm not interested in continuing this with you.

find some happy somewhere...
 
It amazes me how many here are so invested in hating Trump.
 
Mother Jones . . . . lol . . . . Its political inclination is variously described as either liberal or progressive. . . . Of course they would say this.
 
2020-Sturgis-motorcycle-rally.jpg

Bandanas, mullets, beer guts, goatees and wraparound shades. Such a cliche:lamo
 
At this time, that may be as near to fact as can be established. Only time will tell. Computer models will only stoke more fearful speculation.

Computer models give you time to clear out before that hurricane hits. That's how useless they are, right?
 

The only thing missing are the MAGA hats. This whole debacle can be blamed on the stupidity of the governor. I would not expect a bunch of wild bikers to use common sense. But the governor ???????????
 
The only thing missing are the MAGA hats. This whole debacle can be blamed on the stupidity of the governor. I would not expect a bunch of wild bikers to use common sense. But the governor ???????????

It's all about the cash they bring in. Screw people's safety when there's money to be made. Remind you of anyone else?
 
Computer models give you time to clear out before that hurricane hits. That's how useless they are, right?

There's considerably more historical knowledge to weather modeling... even then, there is an error factor that is allowed until it actually makes landfall... and another error factor is then applied.
There is no historical awareness of covid..
 
There's considerably more historical knowledge to weather modeling... even then, there is an error factor that is allowed until it actually makes landfall... and another error factor is then applied.
There is no historical awareness of covid..

But there is of novel viral diseases in general, none of which were either known or predicted prior to vaccines being developed for them. Models are developed based on knowledge and experience already gained, and are modified and corrected as knowledge grows; just as with weather predictions.

Here's How Computer Models Simulate the Future Spread of New Coronavirus - Scientific American
 
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But there is of novel viral diseases in general, none of which were either known or predicted prior to vaccines being developed for them. Models are developed based on knowledge and experience already gained, and are modified and corrected as knowledge grows; just as with weather predictions.

Here's How Computer Models Simulate the Future Spread of New Coronavirus - Scientific American

Maybe I've missed one but I haven't seen any covid models come close to fruition... so, for now, with me, they hold no sway... maybe in the future that will change.
 
Maybe I've missed one but I haven't seen any covid models come close to fruition... so, for now, with me, they hold no sway... maybe in the future that will change.

Don't hold your breath; we don't even have an effective vaccine conferring long-term immunity against seasonal flu; a few months at best.
 
The only thing missing are the MAGA hats. This whole debacle can be blamed on the stupidity of the governor. I would not expect a bunch of wild bikers to use common sense. But the governor ???????????

960x0.jpg
 
Choose to believe whatever fearful affirmation you desire... there are myriad; none have been correct.
More Nuthin'. And with that, g'day.
 
Don't hold your breath; we don't even have an effective vaccine conferring long-term immunity against seasonal flu; a few months at best.
I think we have a modeling denier amongst us, and I'm not talking GQ. The IHME models have proved pretty accurate. I guess they must have been REAL HARD to find, since only everyone relies on them. I think it's more a matter of not understanding. I don't do searches on this site, but if one searched my posts, one would see that my predictions have been confirmed, and I've followed IHME and my own analysis to reach them. They project further than I do.

But here's the thing - we're 8 months into this thing and there is still no national strategy, woefully inadequate testing - which means inadequate data to model from. Everything is best guess. That makes the variations much wider than they should be. This study gives us a different methodology to track results. That is useful.
 
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How much of a total ****ing idiot do you have to be to not know that a motorcycle rally like this was going to spread COVID across the United States?
The same level of ****ing idiot to believe Trump has been doing a great job on COVID.
 
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