Study Suggests 2020 Polls May Be Missing Shy Trump Voters

[Cardinal]

Nice use of facts and illustrative quotes.

If you already understand Nate Silver's meaning (which from prior posts you certainly seem to), then you don't need additional facts. You already know what the last two weeks of the campaign consisted of and therefore already know why any article claiming that Trump winning in spite of his low standing in the polls is stupid.

 

[armycowboy]

Probably more of a fear element that BLM or Antifa will punish them for their support.

So Trump supporters think that if they tell pollsters they will vote for Trump, somehow Antifa or BLM will find out and come get them?

If that's true, its utterly pathetic.

 

[Jay59]

If you already understand Nate Silver's meaning (which from prior posts you certainly seem to), then you don't need additional facts. You already know what the last two weeks of the campaign consisted of and therefore already know why any article claiming that Trump winning in spite of his low standing in the polls is stupid.

The Silver article does not clearly contradict the other article, so you need to develop a case. Evidently you did not read Silver's article, just the headline, so you could not pull quotes from both articles.

 

[Cardinal]

The Silver article does not clearly contradict the other article, so you need to develop a case. Evidently you did not read Silver's article, just the headline, so you could not pull quotes from both articles.

What happened in the last two weeks of the campaign, as explained in Nate Silver's article?

 

[ReubenSherr]

The polls predicted something like a +3 for Hillary in pop vote, she got a +2. IT was within the margin of error.

(1) Every poll except Rasmussen and L A Times predicted Hillary would do BETTER than she did.

If this were simply a Margin of Error issue, roughly half the polls would have had Trump too high, the other half would have had Hillary too high.

(2) RCP had Clinton winning Wisconsin by 6.5

(3) RCP had Clinton winning Michigan by 3.6

(4) RCP had Clinton winning Pennsylvania by 1.9

(5) If you followed the election, many journals and even universities gave Clinton a 90-99% chance of winning. Including Stanford, and the NYT.

 

[MTAtech]

Probably more of a fear element that BLM or Antifa will punish them for their support.

Yet, in Portland last night we had right wing protesters inciting violence in which one person was killed.

 

[MTAtech]

(1) Every poll except Rasmussen and L A Times predicted Hillary would do BETTER than she did.

If this were simply a Margin of Error issue, roughly half the polls would have had Trump too high, the other half would have had Hillary too high.

(2) RCP had Clinton winning Wisconsin by 6.5

(3) RCP has Clinton winning Michigan by 3.6

(4) RCP has Clinton winning Pennsylvania by 1.9

(5) If you followed the election, many journals and even universities gave Clinton a 90-99% chance of winning. Including Stanford, and the NYT.

Link?

 

[What if...?]

Biden's current lead over Trump is 7.1 per RCP. Could it actually be lower?

Study suggests 2020 polls may be missing '''shy''' Trump voters | Fox News

"Republican and independent voters are twice as likely to not reveal their true preference for president in a telephone poll, a study found.

CloudResearch, an online market research and data collection company, found that 11.7% of Republicans and 10.5% of independents said they wouldn't share their true opinion, while only 5.4% of Democrats said the same.

"That raises the possibility that polls understate support for President Donald Trump," Bloomberg reported Friday.

The findings once again highlight whether "shy" Trump voters were undercounted in polling data prior to the 2016 election, which his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton had been projected to win."

It's because they are ashamed.

Own that.

There is no other reason, unless they're so stupid they think their answer will come back to haunt them.

Like it never has.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Link?

Sorry, I’m having Wi-Fi issues.

Google “Hillary has 91 percent chance,” and the NYT link comes up.

Google “Hillary has 99 percent chance Stanford,” and the Stanford link comes up.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

(5) If you followed the election, many journals and even universities gave Clinton a 90-99% chance of winning. Including Stanford, and the NYT.

The 2016 Election-Follower wants everyone to know that a 10% chance of winning an election *doesn’t* look like 80k votes across 3 swing states and a 3m pop deficit.

THe polls all showed the same thing: Trump had a *very* narrow path to victory.

 

[What if...?]

No. They are afraid someone is going to dox them and make their lives miserable for daring to have an opinion.

Got a list of those this has happened to or is this just another gaslight?

Oh wait, it's you.

It's a gaslight.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

It's because they are ashamed.

Own that.

There is no other reason, unless they're so stupid they think their answer will come back to haunt them.

Like it never has.

Yeah, between crossing state lines to shoot at peaceful protestors and yelling in the faces of Walmart clerks for being asked to wear a mask, one thing we know about Trump voters is how shy they are about letting people know who they support.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[What if...?]

Sure, they're scared pollsters will dox them. Run with that.

The news all over the world is full of examples of people who have been doxxed for tinging the "wrong" answer on a poll.

Oh wait, no it isn't.

I don't think I've ever heard of a case of that happening.

So absent any evidence its just a Big Lie gaslight.

 

[jotathought]

Yet, in Portland last night we had right wing protesters inciting violence in which one person was killed.

I'm sure with Antifa and BLM demonstrating their law-abiding capabilities as outstanding citizens over the last several months, they had nothing to contribute to the situation .. right?

 

[What if...?]

Sure there is. He won with 39% approval last time. They showed up before and they will show up again. The race is a deadheat and Biden feeding meat to the dogs in the states he already will win is not getting him anywhere. He needs to campaign to the moderates or give it up.

What really happened is a bunch of butthurt Bernie supporters either stayed home or voted against Hillary.

Some of then are mad now, but trump has alienated a bunch of independents and traditional republicans, so its probably a wash.

The American people are tired of this show.

I don't think it will be picked up for another season.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

It’s funny how liberal posters interpreted the OP to indicate that Trump voters were embarrassed lol.

The study found that many Trump voters don’t WANT to provide feedback to pollsters. Because they don’t like liberal pollsters. And they don’t want to spend their time talking to socialists on the phone or return 50 question surveys with questions worded in a slick socialist manner.

Unless you have actually read all of the poll questions, you have no idea if the pollsters are even slightly biased in either direction.

 

[Drawdown]

What really happened is a bunch of butthurt Bernie supporters either stayed home or voted against Hillary.

Some of then are mad now, but trump has alienated a bunch of independents and traditional republicans, so its probably a wash.

The American people are tired of this show.

I don't think it will be picked up for another season.

Those butt hurt bernie supporters are tanking the DNC pilot with their violence and rioting. Before they were "Anti-fascists" now they are "Black Lives Matter". This show is getting a 4 year extension so they can "evolve" into something new.

 

[What if...?]

Those butt hurt bernie supporters are tanking the DNC pilot with their violence and rioting. Before they were "Anti-fascists" now they are "Black Lives Matter". This show is getting a 4 year extension so they can "evolve" into something new.

Well, you got some of the names right, but the rest is just cobbled together out of manufactured narratives.

If nothing else trump's shenanigans have made it very hard to develop strong narratives.

So we get the weak sauce y'all drag here like it's Excaliber. And find out it's actually a Chinese knockoff of a Russian knockoff of a crappy pocket knife.

Then you get mad aat us when we clown you because you look so stupid with that pathetic thing in your hands as you strike a heroic pose.

And the blade falls off.

It is at least entertaining.

 

[Drawdown]

Well, you got some of the names right, but the rest is just cobbled together out of manufactured narratives.

If nothing else trump's shenanigans have made it very hard to develop strong narratives.

So we get the weak sauce y'all drag here like it's Excaliber. And find out it's actually a Chinese knockoff of a Russian knockoff of a crappy pocket knife.

Then you get mad aat us when we clown you because you look so stupid with that pathetic thing in your hands as you strike a heroic pose.

And the blade falls off.

It is at least entertaining.

Eventually democrats are going to get tired of black lives matter terrorizing their cities. Enjoy the sequel.

 

[Phys251]

Every single poll except Rasmussen predicted Hillary would get a higher percentage of the popular vote than she did.

Statistically, a margin of error should swing both ways. Roughly half of the polls should have erred on the positive side of the results, roughly half should have erred on the negative side.

More importantly, the swing state polls were way off.

You are confusing likelihood with probability. That's a common mistake.

 

[Phys251]

Those butt hurt bernie supporters are tanking the DNC pilot with their violence and rioting. Before they were "Anti-fascists" now they are "Black Lives Matter". This show is getting a 4 year extension so they can "evolve" into something new.

So you admit that your ilk just keeps changing the name of your bogeymen. :lol:

Eventually democrats are going to get tired of black lives matter terrorizing their cities. Enjoy the sequel.

You lie because you are hoping that "Antifa" starts the Reichstag fire. You want them on that wall. You need them on that wall.

 

[What if...?]

Eventually democrats are going to get tired of black lives matter terrorizing their cities. Enjoy the sequel.

Problem is we know its not BLM but other groups using the protests as cover.

As has been happening for decades.

With the addition of professional criminals who haven't been able to get their crime on due to the shutdowns.

But it is encouraging that y'all have nothing except the weak narratives your propagandists have come up with.

You cannot even begin to address any aspect of any topic for which your opinion has not been provided for you.

It is both patheitc and sad.

 

[Fishking]

So people are embarrassed to admit that they support Trump?

No...people don't want to be targeted by violent leftists.

 

[CaughtInThe]

Florida

 

[armycowboy]

No...people don't want to be targeted by violent leftists.

So when has a Trump supporter answered a poll, been doxed and has been subjected to violence?