Study Suggests 2020 Polls May Be Missing Shy Trump Voters

[Old Sarge]

You lost 2018. You’re about to lose a change election in 2020.

Yes, the will of the people matters. If Trump governed at all like someone who had to cater to the whole country except his tiny EC margins, our democracy wouldn’t look the way it does today.


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You do understand the reason for the Electoral College don't you? Or are you one of those mob/majority rule types?

 

[Aunt Antifa]

Exactly! I'm not drinking that silent majority nonsense. If you're too embarrassed or afraid to say you support the "Oh Fake Pumpkin", then he's definitely not the right candidate.

Right?

"All the enthusiasm is with us!"
"We're too afraid to admit over a phone that we are voting for the candidate with all the enthusiasm!"

 

[Aunt Antifa]

You do understand the reason for the Electoral College don't you? Or are you one of those mob/majority rule types?

Yes, the purpose of the EC was to allow the corrupt elite to keep a check on the great unwashed’s voting choices. In 2020 it’s used by the GOP because they can’t compete nationally anymore.

Mob rule doesn’t mean anything here. We have individual rights that protect us from mob rule. Mob rule is a tiny niche trying to cement minority rule.

 

[ALiberalModerate]

So people are embarrassed to admit that they support Trump?

Exactly. That's why I have been saying that anyone that intends to vote for that racist, incompetent, despicable, America hating orange piece of **** needs to make sure they got a Trump sign in their yard and a Trump sticker on their car. Everyone that knows them needs to know what kind of person they are and who they are willing to vote for. If they are going to support that racist piece of ****, go ahead, it's any Americans right to do so, but they need to man up and own it.

 

[ALiberalModerate]

You do understand the reason for the Electoral College don't you? Or are you one of those mob/majority rule types?

Is it mob rule in every other Democratic Republic on earth?

 

[Old Sarge]

Is it mob rule in every other Democratic Republic on earth?

You may not realize it but we are not a Democratic Republic. We are a Constitutional Republic.

Eugene Volokh of the UCLA School of Law notes that the United States exemplifies the varied nature of a constitutional republic—a country where some decisions (often local) are made by direct democratic processes, while others (often federal) are made by democratically elected representatives.

So yes a straight democracy is in effect mob rule. The majority (mob) makes the rules.

 

[Jay59]

So people are embarrassed to admit that they support Trump?

Intimidated. Threats of verbal and physical retaliation are real and substantial. From the article, Fear of reprisal and related detrimental impact to their financial, social, and family lives should their political opinions become publicly known.

Add to that the tendency for polls to over sample Dems and you end up with useless, bogus polls.

This does not fly. You can handle oversampling if your methodology is good.

Of course there can also be a lot of shy Joe Biden supporters.

:lamo

To those who knew how the history of how thing went down in the last two weeks of the campaign, the opening paragraph in the Cloud Research study will be really frustrating:

"Lately, there’s been considerable debate over the accuracy of presidential polls. While recent polls show Joe Biden ahead, a number of pundits speculate that some Donald Trump supporters may be hesitant to share their true opinions when polled by phone. That hypothesis is gaining traction, leading some to argue that Trump may be leading despite what the latest numbers show. It’s also being fueled by the belief that 2020 will be a repeat of the 2016 election, when Trump polled poorly in advance of the election, but still went on to win the Electoral College vote." It seems like these takes are produced solely to troll Nate Silver.
The Comey Letter Probably Cost Clinton The Election | FiveThirtyEight

You often use Nate Silver as a talisman. It helps if he is on point. In this case, he is speaking to a completely different subject.

You lost 2018. You’re about to lose a change election in 2020.

So you keep saying. In 2018 the plan to impeach was still breathing.

Yes, the will of the people matters. If Trump governed at all like someone who had to cater to the whole country except his tiny EC margins, our democracy wouldn’t look the way it does today.

Trump does not govern like anyone else. That's a personality thing. However, he does govern very well.

Exactly. That's why I have been saying that anyone that intends to vote for that racist, incompetent, despicable, America hating orange piece of **** needs to make sure they got a Trump sign in their yard and a Trump sticker on their car. Everyone that knows them needs to know what kind of person they are and who they are willing to vote for. If they are going to support that racist piece of ****, go ahead, it's any Americans right to do so, but they need to man up and own it.

Thank you for the example of how Democrats are spitting on the rule of law.

In 2016, the exit polls showed that his pre-election polling was most skewed in the college educated group. I can understand a professional being embarrassed to openly support Trump, when it's easy to say undecided. As SoutherDemocrat illustrates, threats of retaliation and potentially violence violence are real. Note how he projects his own bigotry.

 

[Old Sarge]

Yes, the purpose of the EC was to allow the corrupt elite to keep a check on the great unwashed’s voting choices. In 2020 it’s used by the GOP because they can’t compete nationally anymore.

Mob rule doesn’t mean anything here. We have individual rights that protect us from mob rule. Mob rule is a tiny niche trying to cement minority rule.

Completely and totally wrong! The reason for the EC is to prevent the large population states from choosing the president. The EC gives smaller states a say in the election. I often wonder why liberals reject state equality in elections. Yep they love mob rule.

 

[Helix]

Study Suggests 2020 Polls May Be Missing Shy Trump Voters

hopefully, they'll also be too shy to actually vote for the idiot.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

Completely and totally wrong! The reason for the EC is to prevent the large population states from choosing the president. The EC gives smaller states a say in the election. I often wonder why liberals reject state equality in elections. Yep they love mob rule.

There is no such thing as “state equality” when voting for potus. Republicans in Arkansas are not voting with Democrats in Arkansas on behalf of Arkansas. They’re voting with Republicans across the country to elect the president.

Yknow. Cause it’s a national election that has nothing to do with states’ rights. Zip. Zero. Nada.

 

[poweRob]

So people are embarrassed to admit that they support Trump?

Seems to be to the extreme no matter. Either they are are too cowardly to say or they are screaming it in people's faces who didn't even bother to ask them.

 

[poweRob]

Completely and totally wrong! The reason for the EC is to prevent the large population states from choosing the president.

Then explain why do the bigger states have more EC votes?

The EC gives smaller states a say in the election. I often wonder why liberals reject state equality in elections. Yep they love mob rule.

Equality = 1 person 1 vote. Wow you are so incredibly wrong it ain't even funny.

 

[Luther]

Biden's current lead over Trump is 7.1 per RCP. Could it actually be lower?

Study suggests 2020 polls may be missing '''shy''' Trump voters | Fox News

"Republican and independent voters are twice as likely to not reveal their true preference for president in a telephone poll, a study found.

CloudResearch, an online market research and data collection company, found that 11.7% of Republicans and 10.5% of independents said they wouldn't share their true opinion, while only 5.4% of Democrats said the same.

"That raises the possibility that polls understate support for President Donald Trump," Bloomberg reported Friday.

The findings once again highlight whether "shy" Trump voters were undercounted in polling data prior to the 2016 election, which his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton had been projected to win."

"Shy Trump voters"

Boy, they sound like great patriots

 

[MTAtech]

Biden's current lead over Trump is 7.1 per RCP. Could it actually be lower?

Study suggests 2020 polls may be missing '''shy''' Trump voters | Fox News

"Republican and independent voters are twice as likely to not reveal their true preference for president in a telephone poll, a study found.

CloudResearch, an online market research and data collection company, found that 11.7% of Republicans and 10.5% of independents said they wouldn't share their true opinion, while only 5.4% of Democrats said the same.

"That raises the possibility that polls understate support for President Donald Trump," Bloomberg reported Friday.

The findings once again highlight whether "shy" Trump voters were undercounted in polling data prior to the 2016 election, which his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton had been projected to win."

According to your article, "11.7% of Republicans and 10.5% of independents said they wouldn't share their true opinion, while only 5.4% of Democrats said the same." That doesn't mean that those Trump supporters said that would vote for Biden. It means they didn't answer and thus show up in the undecided group. It doesn't make that much difference if Biden is leading by wide margins.

 

[MTAtech]

Completely and totally wrong! The reason for the EC is to prevent the large population states from choosing the president. The EC gives smaller states a say in the election. I often wonder why liberals reject state equality in elections. Yep they love mob rule.

The EC is a throwback to the slave days. The slaves would be counted in the census as "3/5 of a person," which increased the state’s congressional delegation but the slaves would not be allowed to vote, decreasing that state’s power if the presidency were to be determined by a popular vote. According to George Edwards, presidential scholar at Oxford University and Texas A&M, “A direct election for president did not sit well with most delegates from the slave states, which had large populations but far fewer eligible voters. They gravitated toward the Electoral College as a compromise because it was based on population. The convention had agreed to count each slave as three-fifths of a person for the purpose of calculating each state’s allotment of seats in Congress. For Virginia, which had the largest population among the original 13 states, that meant more clout in choosing the president.”

 

[Cardinal]

You often use Nate Silver as a talisman. It helps if he is on point. In this case, he is speaking to a completely different subject.

It's on point when you consider that the article I quoted conveniently ignores the events of the last two weeks of the campaign, as though Trump was trailing badly behind Clinton and then...like magic!...for no reason at all he just suddenly wins, miraculously proving all the polls wrong.

 

[Jay59]

It's on point when you consider that the article I quoted conveniently ignores the events of the last two weeks of the campaign, as though Trump was trailing badly behind Clinton and then...like magic!...for no reason at all he just suddenly wins, miraculously proving all the polls wrong.

That is a point that you could have raised and did not. Exit polling show that late deciding voters went 2-1 for Trump. Silver's article does buttress that much.

However, it does not invalidate the original article. Indeed, the two mesh well. It is very consistent for stealth Trump supporters to claim undecided, then join the last minute crowd.

 

[Old Sarge]

The EC is a throwback to the slave days. The slaves would be counted in the census as "3/5 of a person," which increased the state’s congressional delegation but the slaves would not be allowed to vote, decreasing that state’s power if the presidency were to be determined by a popular vote. According to George Edwards, presidential scholar at Oxford University and Texas A&M, “A direct election for president did not sit well with most delegates from the slave states, which had large populations but far fewer eligible voters. They gravitated toward the Electoral College as a compromise because it was based on population. The convention had agreed to count each slave as three-fifths of a person for the purpose of calculating each state’s allotment of seats in Congress. For Virginia, which had the largest population among the original 13 states, that meant more clout in choosing the president.”

Which is what I said.

 

[MTAtech]

Which is what I said.

Copyright 2020 Old Sarge

 

[Cardinal]

That is a point that you could have raised and did not. Exit polling show that late deciding voters went 2-1 for Trump. Silver's article does buttress that much.

However, it does not invalidate the original article. Indeed, the two mesh well. It is very consistent for stealth Trump supporters to claim undecided, then join the last minute crowd.

The article is accurate if you pretend that the last two weeks of the campaign didn't happen.

 

[Rickeroo]

Biden's current lead over Trump is 7.1 per RCP. Could it actually be lower?

Study suggests 2020 polls may be missing '''shy''' Trump voters | Fox News

"Republican and independent voters are twice as likely to not reveal their true preference for president in a telephone poll, a study found.

CloudResearch, an online market research and data collection company, found that 11.7% of Republicans and 10.5% of independents said they wouldn't share their true opinion, while only 5.4% of Democrats said the same.

"That raises the possibility that polls understate support for President Donald Trump," Bloomberg reported Friday.

The findings once again highlight whether "shy" Trump voters were undercounted in polling data prior to the 2016 election, which his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton had been projected to win."

The Ministry lends it's take:

Election 2020: Donald Trump continues to break the polling - CNNPolitics

... it's not like the voters who said they were voting for Biden had reason to give what they might perceive as the more socially desirable answer (i.e. not voting for Trump).

While indirect, this is an admission that in today's climate there is a Correct party to vote for, and an Incorrect one.

 

[jotathought]

So people are embarrassed to admit that they support Trump?

Probably more of a fear element that BLM or Antifa will punish them for their support.

 

[Jay59]

The article is accurate if you pretend that the last two weeks of the campaign didn't happen.

The article is accurate if you don't pretend. The events of the last two weeks are mostly irrelevant to the theme of the article.

Probably more of a fear element that BLM or Antifa will punish them for their support.

Some, certainly. I know of one person who will not openly support Trump for fear of losing their job and there are many forms of retaliation.

However, it is reasonable to be embarrassed by association. It is not difficult to support the administration and dislike the man.

 

[Cardinal]

The article is accurate if you don't pretend. The events of the last two weeks are mostly irrelevant to the theme of the article.

The article is stupid if it pretends that the last two weeks of the campaign didn't happen.

 

[Jay59]

The article is stupid if it pretends that the last two weeks of the campaign didn't happen.

Nice use of facts and illustrative quotes.