Study Suggests 2020 Polls May Be Missing Shy Trump Voters

[ReubenSherr]

Biden's current lead over Trump is 7.1 per RCP. Could it actually be lower?

Study suggests 2020 polls may be missing '''shy''' Trump voters | Fox News

"Republican and independent voters are twice as likely to not reveal their true preference for president in a telephone poll, a study found.

CloudResearch, an online market research and data collection company, found that 11.7% of Republicans and 10.5% of independents said they wouldn't share their true opinion, while only 5.4% of Democrats said the same.

"That raises the possibility that polls understate support for President Donald Trump," Bloomberg reported Friday.

The findings once again highlight whether "shy" Trump voters were undercounted in polling data prior to the 2016 election, which his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton had been projected to win."

 

[bearpoker]

Biden's current lead over Trump is 7.1 per RCP. Could it actually be lower?

Study suggests 2020 polls may be missing '''shy''' Trump voters | Fox News

"Republican and independent voters are twice as likely to not reveal their true preference for president in a telephone poll, a study found.

CloudResearch, an online market research and data collection company, found that 11.7% of Republicans and 10.5% of independents said they wouldn't share their true opinion, while only 5.4% of Democrats said the same.

"That raises the possibility that polls understate support for President Donald Trump," Bloomberg reported Friday.

The findings once again highlight whether "shy" Trump voters were undercounted in polling data prior to the 2016 election, which his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton had been projected to win."

The dirty little secret vote may or may not materialize. There's really no way to tell.

 

[armycowboy]

Biden's current lead over Trump is 7.1 per RCP. Could it actually be lower?

Study suggests 2020 polls may be missing '''shy''' Trump voters | Fox News

"Republican and independent voters are twice as likely to not reveal their true preference for president in a telephone poll, a study found.

CloudResearch, an online market research and data collection company, found that 11.7% of Republicans and 10.5% of independents said they wouldn't share their true opinion, while only 5.4% of Democrats said the same.

"That raises the possibility that polls understate support for President Donald Trump," Bloomberg reported Friday.

The findings once again highlight whether "shy" Trump voters were undercounted in polling data prior to the 2016 election, which his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton had been projected to win."

So people are embarrassed to admit that they support Trump?

 

[Mycroft]

Biden's current lead over Trump is 7.1 per RCP. Could it actually be lower?

Study suggests 2020 polls may be missing '''shy''' Trump voters | Fox News

"Republican and independent voters are twice as likely to not reveal their true preference for president in a telephone poll, a study found.

CloudResearch, an online market research and data collection company, found that 11.7% of Republicans and 10.5% of independents said they wouldn't share their true opinion, while only 5.4% of Democrats said the same.

"That raises the possibility that polls understate support for President Donald Trump," Bloomberg reported Friday.

The findings once again highlight whether "shy" Trump voters were undercounted in polling data prior to the 2016 election, which his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton had been projected to win."

Add to that the tendency for polls to over sample Dems and you end up with useless, bogus polls.

 

[Mycroft]

So people are embarrassed to admit that they support Trump?

No. They are afraid someone is going to dox them and make their lives miserable for daring to have an opinion.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

Of course there can also be a lot of shy Joe Biden supporters.

 

[armycowboy]

No. They are afraid someone is going to dox them and make their lives miserable for daring to have an opinion.

Sure, they're scared pollsters will dox them. Run with that.

 

[Drawdown]

The dirty little secret vote may or may not materialize. There's really no way to tell.

Sure there is. He won with 39% approval last time. They showed up before and they will show up again. The race is a deadheat and Biden feeding meat to the dogs in the states he already will win is not getting him anywhere. He needs to campaign to the moderates or give it up.

 

[RAMOSS]

Of course there can also be a lot of shy Joe Biden supporters.

And, many of those people could be 'I am embarressed about voting for a democrat' for a republican or 'it's none of your business' types.

 

[Cardinal]

To those who knew how the history of how thing went down in the last two weeks of the campaign, the opening paragraph in the Cloud Research study will be really frustrating:

"Lately, there’s been considerable debate over the accuracy of presidential polls. While recent polls show Joe Biden ahead, a number of pundits speculate that some Donald Trump supporters may be hesitant to share their true opinions when polled by phone. That hypothesis is gaining traction, leading some to argue that Trump may be leading despite what the latest numbers show. It’s also being fueled by the belief that 2020 will be a repeat of the 2016 election, when Trump polled poorly in advance of the election, but still went on to win the Electoral College vote."

Study: Are Election 2020 Poll Respondents Honest About Their Vote? Study: Are Election 2020 Poll Respondents Honest About Their Vote?

It seems like these takes are produced solely to troll Nate Silver.

The Comey Letter Probably Cost Clinton The Election | FiveThirtyEight

 

[Court Jester]

So people are embarrassed to admit that they support Trump?

Not embarrassed. It is due to cancel culture in part, but this has happened many times before. Many people are not honest in telephone polls.

Polls are NOT actually elections.

Social desirability bias - Wikipedia

Bradley effect - Wikipedia

 

[Aunt Antifa]

The dirty little secret vote may or may not materialize. There's really no way to tell.

I don’t know who they’re tryhign to convince. If you have the votes, go get ‘em. **** do you want any of us to do about it?

All I keep hearinga bout is this silent majority that has all these boat parades, and all the enthusiasm, and polling is rigged and and and yet Trump can’t seem to make any headway with voters who aren’t already voting for him.

I don’t even know why they keep bringing up 2016. Polls got it right. Trump backed into the WH, he wasn’t swept in there.

 

[ReubenSherr]

I don’t even know why they keep bringing up 2016. Polls got it right.

Every single poll except Rasmussen predicted Hillary would get a higher percentage of the popular vote than she did.

Statistically, a margin of error should swing both ways. Roughly half of the polls should have erred on the positive side of the results, roughly half should have erred on the negative side.

More importantly, the swing state polls were way off.

 

[jaypatriot]

So people are embarrassed to admit that they support Trump?

If you were Rand Paul, would you be a bit apprehensive about expressing support for your president?
Nowadays you can get beat up on the streets if you don't raise your fist in support of the Black Lives Matter movement.
But no one would dare admit that the BLM movement was turning into a terrorist group.

 

[jaypatriot]

I don’t know who they’re tryhign to convince. If you have the votes, go get ‘em. **** do you want any of us to do about it?

All I keep hearinga bout is this silent majority that has all these boat parades, and all the enthusiasm, and polling is rigged and and and yet Trump can’t seem to make any headway with voters who aren’t already voting for him.

I don’t even know why they keep bringing up 2016. Polls got it right. Trump backed into the WH, he wasn’t swept in there.

Does it really matter how you get the electoral college votes - as long as it is done legally?
Back in; walk in; who cares?

 

[Deepnation10009]

I don’t know who they’re tryhign to convince. If you have the votes, go get ‘em. **** do you want any of us to do about it?

All I keep hearinga bout is this silent majority that has all these boat parades, and all the enthusiasm, and polling is rigged and and and yet Trump can’t seem to make any headway with voters who aren’t already voting for him.

I don’t even know why they keep bringing up 2016. Polls got it right. Trump backed into the WH, he wasn’t swept in there.

Exactly! I'm not drinking that silent majority nonsense. If you're too embarrassed or afraid to say you support the "Oh Fake Pumpkin", then he's definitely not the right candidate.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Exactly! I'm not drinking that silent majority nonsense. If you're too embarrassed or afraid to say you support the "Oh Fake Pumpkin", then he's definitely not the right candidate.

It’s funny how liberal posters interpreted the OP to indicate that Trump voters were embarrassed lol.

The study found that many Trump voters don’t WANT to provide feedback to pollsters. Because they don’t like liberal pollsters. And they don’t want to spend their time talking to socialists on the phone. Or return 50 question surveys with questions worded in a slick socialist manner.

 

[Deepnation10009]

It’s funny how liberal posters interpreted the OP to indicate that Trump voters were embarrassed lol.

The study found that many Trump voters don’t WANT to provide feedback to pollsters. Because they don’t like liberal pollsters. And they don’t want to spend their time talking to socialists on the phone. Or return 50 question surveys with questions worded in a slick socialist manner.

I don't believe it for one flat second.

 

[Integrityrespec]

Biden's current lead over Trump is 7.1 per RCP. Could it actually be lower?

Study suggests 2020 polls may be missing '''shy''' Trump voters | Fox News

"Republican and independent voters are twice as likely to not reveal their true preference for president in a telephone poll, a study found.

CloudResearch, an online market research and data collection company, found that 11.7% of Republicans and 10.5% of independents said they wouldn't share their true opinion, while only 5.4% of Democrats said the same.

"That raises the possibility that polls understate support for President Donald Trump," Bloomberg reported Friday.

The findings once again highlight whether "shy" Trump voters were undercounted in polling data prior to the 2016 election, which his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton had been projected to win."

Sort of like 2016.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

Exactly! I'm not drinking that silent majority nonsense. If you're too embarrassed or afraid to say you support the "Oh Fake Pumpkin", then he's definitely not the right candidate.

Right?

"All the enthusiasm is with us!"
"We're too afraid to admit over a phone that we are voting for the candidate with all the enthusiasm!"

 

[Aunt Antifa]

Does it really matter how you get the electoral college votes - as long as it is done legally?
Back in; walk in; who cares?

You lost 2018. You’re about to lose a change election in 2020.

Yes, the will of the people matters. If Trump governed at all like someone who had to cater to the whole country except his tiny EC margins, our democracy wouldn’t look the way it does today.


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[Aunt Antifa]

Every single poll except Rasmussen predicted Hillary would get a higher percentage of the popular vote than she did.

Statistically, a margin of error should swing both ways. Roughly half of the polls should have erred on the positive side of the results, roughly half should have erred on the negative side.

More importantly, the swing state polls were way off.

The polls predicted something like a +3 for Hillary in pop vote, she got a +2. IT was within the margin of error.

You’re saying a margin of error that produced data showing a slight chance to win for Trump was proven wrong when Trump won with just under 80k votes across 3 swing states and being blown out in the pop by 3m?

You guys keep saying “POLLS WERE WRONG!” but pretend like Trump wasn’t an underdog and didn’t barely squeak in, which is what most of the polls were saying on election day - that this is a scenario that could happen.

and it did.

When you can show me all the mainstream polls showing Trump with a 0% chance to win the WH, I’ll concede your point.


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[rickc]

I watched last time as rural America turned the maps red coast to coast

Did they poll them this time?

Did Trump's tariffs do farmers enough damage that they won't vote for him this time?

I guess we will have to wait and see

 

[VySky]

If you can have your home targeted because of the American Flag a Trump sign is for sure to get attention

 

[Old Sarge]

Biden's current lead over Trump is 7.1 per RCP. Could it actually be lower?

Study suggests 2020 polls may be missing '''shy''' Trump voters | Fox News

"Republican and independent voters are twice as likely to not reveal their true preference for president in a telephone poll, a study found.

CloudResearch, an online market research and data collection company, found that 11.7% of Republicans and 10.5% of independents said they wouldn't share their true opinion, while only 5.4% of Democrats said the same.

"That raises the possibility that polls understate support for President Donald Trump," Bloomberg reported Friday.

The findings once again highlight whether "shy" Trump voters were undercounted in polling data prior to the 2016 election, which his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton had been projected to win."

I never give who I plan to vote for to poll takers. I also never tell exit polls who I voted for. I guess I like to mess with them. LOL