• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Stock Market Plunges Today - Biggest Loss Since Feb.

Joined
Nov 8, 2006
Messages
12,453
Reaction score
6,757
Location
Milwaukee, WI
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Volume and an 800 handle yesterday may indicate such. This will play out over time and a clearer picture will present..

There's no indication that rate increases had any meaningful impact on yesterday's market drop. On the contrary, several earnings calls happened where companies reported on the significant threat that the trade war has to their businesses, and the drops followed. Rate increases weren't announced yesterday. Nobody is talking about rate increases as a problem on earnings calls. Rate increases have already been priced in.
 

akyron

DP Veteran
Joined
Nov 17, 2004
Messages
10,352
Reaction score
2,436
Location
Texas
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
There's no indication that rate increases had any meaningful impact on yesterday's market drop. On the contrary, several earnings calls happened where companies reported on the significant threat that the trade war has to their businesses, and the drops followed. Rate increases weren't announced yesterday. Nobody is talking about rate increases as a problem on earnings calls. Rate increases have already been priced in.

Fear response is not always logical.

I am guessing confidence can behave the same way.....

 
Last edited:

ludin

DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 3, 2013
Messages
57,470
Reaction score
14,585
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
But your hero trump tells us that the Fed is wrong and he knows better.....................

see folks this is TDS out of control.
no logic no reason behind what is said or anything remotely to responding to what was said.

all you get is but trump but trump but trump.
these types of posts can be simply dismissed for the nonsense that they are.

next time try responding to what is said if you want to have a discussion.
 

Conservative

DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 9, 2009
Messages
113,332
Reaction score
10,368
Location
Houston, TX
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/technical-analysts-theres-more-pain-to-come-for-stocks.html

Today, the stock market had one of it's biggest selloffs since last February. The Dow Jones finished at -817.22 or 3.09% and the NASDAQ -315.97 or 4.08% of total market value.

The selloff came on fears of rising interest rates. In the past year with a robust economy and a stock market rising to record levels, Trump took the credit for it - saying that it's a function of his policies. Will he take the blame for the severe losses on Wall Street today? I don't think so.

Everyone knew that a huge bubble in the economy was forming and it would burst sooner or later.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/19/jim-mellon-market-sell-off-in-us-stocks-start-of-major-correction.html

"The trade war worries are "certainly having an effect on the market, but the market is reacting because it's already far too expensive," Mellon said. "The U.S. is selling at 32 times cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, which is an all-time high. Surely it's time for a major correction anyway."

Mellon is not alone in suggesting that today's stock market is the most overvalued on record — more so than in 1929, 2000 and 2007.

View attachment 67241953

Awe, great another gloom and doom prediction from a group of whiners and complainers, people who cannot and will not celebrate successes. Amazing how a 25000 stock market is a collapse and will lead to a Great Depression but what is more concerning is that people like you have no solutions other than the belief that raising taxes on the Rich will solve all the problems facing people today. That is total and complete ignorance and a radical ideology

I hope someone here can point me in the direction of the polling place this November where Trump is on the ballot? The logic and common sense behind voting against someone else because of dislike for the President is beyond comprehension and lacks basic logic and common sense. If you don't like the policies implemented then propose an alternative, hate and investigate, impeach, and search and destroy aren't viable economic policies.
 

Floridafan

Banned
DP Veteran
Joined
Oct 17, 2017
Messages
3,390
Reaction score
849
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Moderate
see folks this is TDS out of control.
no logic no reason behind what is said or anything remotely to responding to what was said.

all you get is but trump but trump but trump.
these types of posts can be simply dismissed for the nonsense that they are.

next time try responding to what is said if you want to have a discussion.

Trump loves to take credit for everything he doesnt do, but if things go south there is always someone else to blame. Has he ever admitted to a mistake in his long miserable life?
 

trixare4kids

DP Veteran
Joined
Nov 16, 2017
Messages
45,826
Reaction score
31,985
Location
S. California
Gender
Female
Political Leaning
Independent
It’s like Leftist Tourette’s Syndrome. Without fail, the DP left trots out a phony reason to blame Trump.

Today, it's why did he blow up the stock market.... TRUMMMMMMMMMMMMPPP!!!
 

Conservative

DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 9, 2009
Messages
113,332
Reaction score
10,368
Location
Houston, TX
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
Trump loves to take credit for everything he doesnt do, but if things go south there is always someone else to blame. Has he ever admitted to a mistake in his long miserable life?

There is a lot to take credit for none of which resonates with people who spend 24/7 here in this forum whining and complaining. Do you have an alternative to the policies that have been implemented the past year and 10 months? When you go to the polls what are you voting for as I have no idea what the Democratic platform is other than investigate, impeach, hate, search and destroy?
 

Chomsky

Social Democrat
DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 28, 2015
Messages
58,050
Reaction score
44,941
Location
Third Coast
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
I am on board with that. Tapping the brakes is their job. Six times recently seems a little like both feet on the passenger brakes however. A measured response is generally safe.
Yes, but we've got to keep in mind the historical perspective of where we are in the curve. The rate cuts that got us here were historic. Now we are entering normalcy, for better or worse (I was actually happy where we were during the latter Obama years).

And unemployment has finally hit the bottom of the curve too, giving rise to wage-inflation adding to the over-all inflationary picture.
 
Joined
Nov 8, 2006
Messages
12,453
Reaction score
6,757
Location
Milwaukee, WI
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Fear response is not always logical.

I am guessing confidence can behave the same way.....


FAST released earnings yesterday morning and talked at length about the tariff threat. FAST is generally followed as a proxy for the broader industrial market. Markets started falling yesterday following release of this info and the call.
 
Joined
Nov 8, 2006
Messages
12,453
Reaction score
6,757
Location
Milwaukee, WI
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
There is a lot to take credit for none of which resonates with people who spend 24/7 here in this forum whining and complaining. Do you have an alternative to the policies that have been implemented the past year and 10 months?

Sure. Don't implement tariffs.
 

akyron

DP Veteran
Joined
Nov 17, 2004
Messages
10,352
Reaction score
2,436
Location
Texas
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
FAST released earnings yesterday morning and talked at length about the tariff threat. FAST is generally followed as a proxy for the broader industrial market. Markets started falling yesterday following release of this info and the call.

Protectionism is generally bad as history shows but this time is quite different in that the tariffs are being used as a tool to leverage better deals and not an end in itself.

U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement A Win For All 3 Nations
 

Renae

DP Veteran
Joined
Aug 26, 2007
Messages
48,389
Reaction score
18,084
Location
San Antonio Texas
Gender
Female
Political Leaning
Conservative
It’s been a wild week for stocks.

Initially, lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data sent interest rates lower and stocks higher in early trading on Thursday before stocks pared those gains and took another dip lower.

This comes after a brutal session on Wednesday, when the S&P 500 (^GSPC) tumbled more than 3% — its worst one-day drop since February — and the Dow (^DJI) fell more than 800 points. The S&P 500 is now on pace to close in the red for the sixth consecutive day.

But one market strategist says not to fear the market volatility in October.

“October should be known for volatility, as no month has seen more 1% changes (up or down) for the S&P 500 Index going back to 1950,” Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial said in a note on Thursday.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dont-fear-volatility-october-strategist-warns-160916528.html
 

ludin

DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 3, 2013
Messages
57,470
Reaction score
14,585
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Trump loves to take credit for everything he doesnt do, but if things go south there is always someone else to blame. Has he ever admitted to a mistake in his long miserable life?

again we can see TDS out of control still nothing to do with what is posted or being discussed.
so there is no point in responding anymore to this type of stuff.

it is not worth your time or effort to entertain.
 

ludin

DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 3, 2013
Messages
57,470
Reaction score
14,585
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Yes, but we've got to keep in mind the historical perspective of where we are in the curve. The rate cuts that got us here were historic. Now we are entering normalcy, for better or worse (I was actually happy where we were during the latter Obama years).

And unemployment has finally hit the bottom of the curve too, giving rise to wage-inflation adding to the over-all inflationary picture.

I see no issue with what is going on.
Higher interest rates will also mean a higher traded dollar. it will also mean that the cost of products will come down.

We have been at 0 or near 0% interest for too long.

time has come for some normalcy. which is what we are getting back too.
it makes sense for investors to take their chunk of the pie right now.
we have seen historic gains in the market over the past 2 years and
a pull back was in the works.

to me this is nothing more than normal market conditions taking affect.
 
Joined
Nov 8, 2006
Messages
12,453
Reaction score
6,757
Location
Milwaukee, WI
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Protectionism is generally bad as history shows but this time is quite different in that the tariffs are being used as a tool to leverage better deals and not an end in itself.

U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement A Win For All 3 Nations

The new deal isn't really that different than NAFTA. Auto provisions are actually detrimental to the US. Agricultural changes affect literally only $70 million of the Canadian dairy market (0.00003% of US exports - obviously completely inconsequential to the trade deficit). Canada succeeded in getting Chapter 11 nixed. There's pretty much nothing of any significance in the new bill that was gained.

Additionally, tariffs are a monumentally stupid "tool" to use to "leverage better deals" considering the fact that any country you impose tariffs on can just impose more on you. Obvious example? China. And who pays for the new tariffs? You and me as both consumers (for tariff cost inflation passed through) and investors (as cash flows erode from tariff impact on companies from amounts they are unable to pass through). A tariff is a tax on your own citizens and doesn't accomplish much else aside from damaging your own economy and international relations. It's a monumentally stupid "tool".
 
Joined
Nov 8, 2006
Messages
12,453
Reaction score
6,757
Location
Milwaukee, WI
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Right, let foreign countries manipulate their currency and trade policies that continue to generate a trade deficit for this country and have a negative impact on GDP.

Trump's policies increase the trade deficit. So why would you support them?
 

Slavister

DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 8, 2018
Messages
7,708
Reaction score
4,772
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
I am on board with that. Tapping the brakes is their job. Six times recently seems a little like both feet on the passenger brakes however. A measured response is generally safe.

If anything, Fed is doing this quite slowly actually (IMO). We've been out of recession for way too long now and we still have a LONG way to go to get to more (historically) "normal" rates. I think they running a chance of not getting there in time before the next recession.

Still, I leave it to them, to true professionals to decide. They handled Great Recession well enough.
 

Chomsky

Social Democrat
DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 28, 2015
Messages
58,050
Reaction score
44,941
Location
Third Coast
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
I see no issue with what is going on.
Higher interest rates will also mean a higher traded dollar. it will also mean that the cost of products will come down.

We have been at 0 or near 0% interest for too long.

time has come for some normalcy. which is what we are getting back too.
it makes sense for investors to take their chunk of the pie right now.
we have seen historic gains in the market over the past 2 years and
a pull back was in the works.

to me this is nothing more than normal market conditions taking affect.
All fair points, Ludin.

I was O.K. with the modest rates and little inflation though, once I got acclimated to it. It seemed a calm and stable environment, no big ups, no big downs, and much of the country did well enough. It sort of reflected the "No drama Obama" ethos.

Concerning the rising dollar in your post though, that does run counter to reversing the trade deficit & expanding our manufacturing base.
 

Conservative

DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 9, 2009
Messages
113,332
Reaction score
10,368
Location
Houston, TX
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
Trump's policies increase the trade deficit. So why would you support them?

the long term affect remains to be seen especially with the new Mexico and Canadian Trade deal, but keep promoting that negativity as we have had trade deficits for decades
 

akyron

DP Veteran
Joined
Nov 17, 2004
Messages
10,352
Reaction score
2,436
Location
Texas
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
The new deal isn't really that different than NAFTA. Auto provisions are actually detrimental to the US. Agricultural changes affect literally only $70 million of the Canadian dairy market (0.00003% of US exports - obviously completely inconsequential to the trade deficit). Canada succeeded in getting Chapter 11 nixed. There's pretty much nothing of any significance in the new bill that was gained.

Additionally, tariffs are a monumentally stupid "tool" to use to "leverage better deals" considering the fact that any country you impose tariffs on can just impose more on you. Obvious example? China. And who pays for the new tariffs? You and me as both consumers (for tariff cost inflation passed through) and investors (as cash flows erode from tariff impact on companies from amounts they are unable to pass through). A tariff is a tax on your own citizens and doesn't accomplish much else aside from damaging your own economy and international relations. It's a monumentally stupid "tool".

China concerns me the most as they have been bullying us on trade for many years and were a critical part of our last recession.


Actually I was thinking of China to start with. No pain...no gain.

Sometimes one needs to punch a bully to get him off your back. It might hurt but the endless bullying will stop.
 
Last edited:

Chomsky

Social Democrat
DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 28, 2015
Messages
58,050
Reaction score
44,941
Location
Third Coast
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
The new deal isn't really that different than NAFTA. Auto provisions are actually detrimental to the US. Agricultural changes affect literally only $70 million of the Canadian dairy market (0.00003% of US exports - obviously completely inconsequential to the trade deficit). Canada succeeded in getting Chapter 11 nixed. There's pretty much nothing of any significance in the new bill that was gained.

Additionally, tariffs are a monumentally stupid "tool" to use to "leverage better deals" considering the fact that any country you impose tariffs on can just impose more on you. Obvious example? China. And who pays for the new tariffs? You and me as both consumers (for tariff cost inflation passed through) and investors (as cash flows erode from tariff impact on companies from amounts they are unable to pass through). A tariff is a tax on your own citizens and doesn't accomplish much else aside from damaging your own economy and international relations. It's a monumentally stupid "tool".
I very much agree here. The NAFTA rework is the usual Trump PR hoopla (he even renamed it!), that is 99% hyperbole, and 1% substance. There's more political rhetoric in it, than substantive actions.

However Trump is doing, even if in some small manner, many of the things he campaigned upon. I can see why his base that wants these things, sticks with him. For them, positive change, even if incremental, is still positive change in a world they perceive as filled with historically consistent negative change.

And with Trump's downright deceitful self-promotion, bolstered by his media support, I suspect his base is more than happy!
 

Chomsky

Social Democrat
DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 28, 2015
Messages
58,050
Reaction score
44,941
Location
Third Coast
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
If anything, Fed is doing this quite slowly actually (IMO). We've been out of recession for way too long now and we still have a LONG way to go to get to more (historically) "normal" rates. I think they running a chance of not getting there in time before the next recession.

Still, I leave it to them, to true professionals to decide. They handled Great Recession well enough.
To the bolded: Exactly!

This is the jitteryness and fears in the market! We've had the longest historical period og growth & recovery in modern history. Even though the fundamentals still look good, everyone is waiting for the next shoe to drop. And most can still remember the blood bath of 2008/09ff.

The general feeling I believe, is:

"Can this really keep going-on"?
 

Slavister

DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 8, 2018
Messages
7,708
Reaction score
4,772
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
I very much agree here. The NAFTA rework is the usual Trump PR hoopla (he even renamed it!), that is 99% hyperbole, and 1% substance. There's more political rhetoric in it, than substantive actions.

Yeah, next thing he will tout the Great Trump Border Wall he built on the border that Mexico paid for. He will claim that
(a) Mexico paid for it in full through concessions in his new NAFTA deal and
(b) the reason you don't see the wall is because it's invisible so as make it harder for illegals to avoid.
I am sure his base will be happy.
 

ludin

DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 3, 2013
Messages
57,470
Reaction score
14,585
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
All fair points, Ludin.

I was O.K. with the modest rates and little inflation though, once I got acclimated to it. It seemed a calm and stable environment, no big ups, no big downs, and much of the country did well enough. It sort of reflected the "No drama Obama" ethos.

Concerning the rising dollar in your post though, that does run counter to reversing the trade deficit & expanding our manufacturing base.

The rise in the dollar's strength will be due to higher interest rates. it is the balance between the two.
depends on how much the dollar goes up.
 
Top Bottom