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Stock Market not likely to help Trump

Luckyone

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As you all know, I am a stock market analyst and in studying a lot of trends, seasonal tendencies, overbought conditions, and news, I believe the stock market will top out either this week or at the latest next.

Since 2008, the market has been in a bull trend that has caused the NASDAQ to rally from 1265 to last week's high of 11730. During this period of time and not counting the first rally from the low made in 2009, the index has has 2 big corrections within the bull market. In this, I am not counting the correction seen because of the virus, only counting the normal corrections seen in a normal bull market. One of the things that has happened for many years (not just the last 10) is a seasonal tendency to correct between mid September to end of October. For instance, in the last 10 years, there has been a correction 9 seen those years that started in September. The corrections have varied from a low of only 5% to a high of 25%. Nonetheless, during the last 10 years, the big corrections (2 of them) have occurred after the index had almost doubled in price.

From 2012 to 2015 and over a period of 35 months, the index appreciated in value 91.8% and then a correction of 19.5% occurred. In 2016, the index rallied for 30 months and appreciated in value 93.2% and then a correction of 24.5% occurred. On this occasion, the Index has rallied 89.4% through Friday and it has been 20 months since the last correction. I do expect the index to rally more this week but a rally of only 2.8% will put it at the same rally level as seen in 2012-2015 and a rally of 3.8% will put it at the same level that is rallied in 2015-2018 and from which those big corrections occurred.

As such and likely beginning the Labor Day week, I expect the indexes will begin a correction and it is likely to be somewhere between 19.5 and 24.5% going into the end of October and just a week before the election occurs.

As such, the Democrats will be able to use the drop in stock prices as ammunition against Trump and Trump will not be able to counter that event all that successfully. It will be an additional tool (though somewhat of a minor one) to use against Trump.

Trump has used the Stock Market as one of the tools to convince people of how good the economy is.

 
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Mycroft

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As you all know, I am a stock market analyst and in studying a lot of trends, seasonal tendencies, overbought conditions, and news, I believe the stock market will top out either this week or at the latest next.

Since 2008, the market has been in a bull trend that has caused the NASDAQ to rally from 1265 to last week's high of 11730. During this period of time and not counting the first rally from the low made in 2009, the index has has 2 big corrections within the bull market. In this, I am not counting the correction seen because of the virus, only counting the normal corrections seen in a normal bull market. One of the things that has happened for many years (not just the last 10) is a seasonal tendency to correct between mid September to end of October. For instance, in the last 10 years, there has been a correction 9 seen those years that started in September. The corrections have varied from a low of only 5% to a high of 25%. Nonetheless, during the last 10 years, the big corrections (2 of them) have occurred after the index has almost doubled in price.

From 2012 to 2015 and over a period of 35 months, the index appreciated in value 91.8% and then a correction of 19.5% occurred. In 2016, the index rallied for 30 months and appreciated in value 93.2% and then a correction of 24.5% occurred. On this occasion, the Index has rallied 89.4% through Friday and it has been 20 months since the last correction. I do expect the index to rally more this week but a rally of only 2.8% will put it at the same rally level as seen in 2012-2015 and a rally of 3.8% will put it at the same level that is rallied in 2015-2018 and from which those big corrections occurred.

As such and likely beginning the Labor Day week, I expect the indexes will begin a correction and it is likely to be somewhere between 19.5 and 24.5% going into the end of October and just a week before the election occurs.

As such, the Democrats will be able to use the drop in stock prices as ammunition against Trump and Trump will not be able to counter that event all that successfully. It will be an additional tool (though somewhat of a minor one) to use against Trump.

Trump has used the Stock Market as one of the tools to convince people of how good the economy is.



A lot of people (I'm not one of them) think the stock market is a good indicator of the economy, so I don't blame Trump for using it to gain votes. Especially when it is doing good.

I won't argue with your prediction ("I believe the stock market will top out either this week or at the latest next.")...your guess is probably better than mine. But if the stock market doesn't crash, then Trump will be ahead of the vote-getting game. The fact that it is MUCH higher than when he took Office is a good selling point.
 

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When people are unemployed or having to stay-at-home or watching their small business dry up or watching their savings go, the stock market is a last thing on their minds.
 

Luckyone

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A lot of people (I'm not one of them) think the stock market is a good indicator of the economy, so I don't blame Trump for using it to gain votes. Especially when it is doing good.

I won't argue with your prediction ("I believe the stock market will top out either this week or at the latest next.")...your guess is probably better than mine. But if the stock market doesn't crash, then Trump will be ahead of the vote-getting game. The fact that it is MUCH higher than when he took Office is a good selling point.

People always anticipate the worst. Trump has certainly taught them that. If the market is falling, it really doesn't matter if it is still better than before. They will view it as a negative. People have to be led in just about every thought and if the indexes are falling, the Democrats will use that info and most people are not smart enough to know better. How do you think Trump got elected? Make America Great Again is how he did it. It sounds great but it a bald faced lie. Do you think the Trumpers have noticed it is a lie? hell no, they are led by their noses. A falling market will feel like things are getting worse, not better.
 

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People always anticipate the worst. Trump has certainly taught them that. If the market is falling, it really doesn't matter if it is still better than before. They will view it as a negative. People have to be led in just about every thought and if the indexes are falling, the Democrats will use that info and most people are not smart enough to know better. How do you think Trump got elected? Make America Great Again is how he did it. It sounds great but it a bald faced lie. Do you think the Trumpers have noticed it is a lie? hell no, they are led by their noses. A falling market will feel like things are getting worse, not better.

Oh...I didn't know you were talking about the market falling. You had only mentioned the market topping out.

For sure...a falling market will affect some voters. You know...the ones I mentioned that think the stock market is a good indicator of the economy. And, for sure, Trump's opponent would certainly use a falling market as a weapon against Trump. But I think it'll only be a real liability if it crashes while it's falling.
 

Luckyone

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As I stated here last week when the indexes were making new all-time highs? The stock market is not going to help Trump going into the elections.

The indexes started falling last week and the NASDAQ has now corrected 10% in just 1 week. There is a seasonal tendency to correct after Labor Day and into the end of October. Correction is expected to be around 20% based on the two previous corrections in the bull market and since 2010 (not considering the Virus correction seen this year). This likely means the DOW down to around the 24,000 level. Presently around 27650.

A correction of this magnitude going into the election and without fully knowing by the end of October whether more downside will come or not, will not help Trump. Trump continues to attempt to find things that will help him get elected. Nonetheless and one of the things he always keys on (the Stock Market) is not likely to be one of those things that help.
 
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