- Joined
- Jan 16, 2019
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Mainstream economic theory is pretty clear about the role of fiscal policy. In general, when the economy is weak or in recession, the economy needs fiscal support. When the economy is strong, fiscal restraint is appropriate. There will be a time for fiscal consolidation (tax hikes and/or spending restraint), but that won't be until the economy returns to sustainable growth.
At present, the U.S. economy has shown signs of marked deterioration in recent weeks. The just released advance retail sales report showed a 0.7% decline for December and a revised (downward) 1.4% decline in November. Had follow-up aggressive fiscal stimulus been adopted during the late spring and had that fiscal stimulus included relief for state and local governments (major employers of school teachers, police officers, fire fighters, first responders, etc.), the economy would almost certainly be in better shape than it currently is.
At the same time, had there been a coherent and competent federal strategy for limiting the spread of COVID-19 including widespread adherence to risk mitigation measures such as use of face masks, the pandemic would almost certainly be far less worse than it currently is. Recent peer-reviewed literature explains:
The preponderance of evidence indicates that mask wearing reduces transmissibility per contact by reducing transmission of infected respiratory particles in both laboratory and clinical contexts. Public mask wearing is most effective at reducing spread of the virus when compliance is high.
More Americans are now dying from COVID-19 each day than were killed during the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The resurgence of COVID-19 that has resulted from a catastrophic leadership failure at the federal level is leading to renewed restrictions that are further suppressing economic growth.
President-elect Biden will need to turn around the absence of a credible COVID-19 strategy. Yesterday's national address was a good start in that direction.
What we got from the Trump response was the worst of both worlds, a tanking economy and a bunch of dead people.
Why do people vote for the GOP?