STATFOR Analysis on Syria

[APACHERAT]

Iran: Managing U.S. Military Action in Syria
Analysis


>" Summary
Conventional wisdom says that a weakened Syria would undermine Iran's regional influence, but a U.S. military intervention in the country could actually benefit Tehran. The government there has devised a sophisticated strategy for responding to a U.S. attack. Of course, Tehran would activate its militant proxies in the region, including Hezbollah, in the event that the United States launches an attack, but it would also exploit Washington's visceral opposition to Sunni jihadist and Islamist groups to gain concessions elsewhere.

Analysis
Iran already has engaged diplomatically with many of those involved in the Syrian conflict. Over the past weekend, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the foreign affairs and national security head for the Iranian parliament, led a delegation to Damascus, presumably to discuss the potential U.S. attack. Earlier on Aug. 29, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani over the phone. Their conversation followed U.N. Undersecretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman's visit to Tehran, where he and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif likewise discussed Syria. Even the Omani sultan paid a rare visit to Iran, reportedly carrying with him positive messages from the Obama administration for Iran's new government.

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/ir...readmore&elq=4845eb4272304699b7787fd731fdf657

 

[MMC]

Some more Analysis for ya Apache. Here is what else we can do besides blow off some missiles.

Syria could be a crucial proving ground for U.S. cyberwarriors

We know that a U.S. strike on Syria would likely involve involve bombs or cruise missiles. But if the president orders an attack against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, it will likely include another instrument as well: cyberattacks.

Experts say President Obama is unlikely to order the kind of stand-alone cyberattack against Syria that the United States launched against Iran’s nuclear facilities a few years ago. But digital sabotage could play a significant role in an American military strike if Congress approves an intervention.

Syria’s air defenses would likely be among the first targets of any cyberattack, the experts said. U.S. forces could trick the country’s radar system into seeing nothing as American jets passed overhead, or disrupt Syrian missile sites designed to shoot down U.S. aircraft. American engineers also could disable Syria’s power grid remotely while the intervention was ongoing, then bring the system back online. They might take down Syrian command-and-control networks, or, in a move reminiscent of more traditional electronic warfare, jam the Syrian army’s communications or block its propaganda.

Any cyberattack would be relatively difficult to detect, said James Lewis, a cybersecurity scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.....snip~

Syria could be a crucial proving ground for U.S. cyberwarriors

 

[MMC]

More Analysis.

Analysis: Surprise or not, U.S. strikes can still hurt Assad

It would hardly be a surprise to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad or his military if American missiles start hitting Syria soon.

With weeks to prepare for an attack, Assad might benefit in some ways from the delay in any strike caused by President Barack Obama's decision to seek approval from a divided U.S. Congress.

U.S. officials and defense experts say Assad's forces cannot take enough targets out of reach to blunt the U.S. military mission, especially since it is billed as having very limited objectives.

Defense analyst Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank said if successful, hitting fixed targets would eliminate key assets to Assad that "can't easily be replaced, like command and control facilities, major headquarters."

"These are lasting targets," Cordesman said

COLLATERAL DAMAGE

General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. military's Joint Chiefs of Staff, acknowledged publicly to Congress that Obama has ordered the military to develop plans that keep a lid on collateral damage - civilian deaths and damage to civilian infrastructure.

"Though they are in fact moving resources around - and in some cases placing prisoners and others in places that they believe we might target - at this point our intelligence is keeping up with that movement," Dempsey, the top U.S. military officer, told lawmakers on Wednesday.....snip~

Analysis: Surprise or not, U.S. strikes can still hurt Assad

According to Dempsey.....we are ready for the fallout.

 

[[]D e e v e s]

The unfortunate turn of events could be the perception the Muslim/Russia/China et al have of the USA whichever route Obama choses to go.
Does he save face by surgical attack? If so, what if gas is then used again?
If he decides to back down on his threat of Syria crossing his line, will he gain popularity in the West? It seems without UN sanctioning an attack, he will seemingly be supported by the majority of Western vox populi.

I think he has put himself and the USA into a corner with a lose-lose choice to make. No doubt the US satellites have been monitoring any Syrian military moves, but still, the delay of near a month is eating up US credibility.

Putin must be loving this.