State of the Election, 10/1/10

[RightinNYC]

Nate Silver's most recent posts about the election:

House Forecast: Prospects Strong for G.O.P. Takeover - NYTimes.com

Our House forecasting model continues to show Republicans as having about a two-in-three chance — 67 percent — of taking over the House on Nov. 2, similar to the forecast in recent weeks.

The most likely number of Republican pickups is in the range of about 45 seats — although significantly larger or smaller gains remain possible. The model does not expect a clean sweep: Democrats are favorites in 4 seats currently held by Republicans. But Republicans are favorites in exactly 50 Democratic-held seats, according to the model, which would be enough to give them control of the House.

G.O.P. Stays on Upswing in Senate Forecast - NYTimes.com

Republican chances of taking over the Senate have improved again in this week’s forecast. They are now 22 percent — up from 18 percent last week and 15 percent two weeks ago. Republican chances are now approaching the point where they stood before the Delaware primary, when they had peaked at 26 percent before Christine O’Donnell’s victory.

There are six states held by Democrats where Republicans have at least a 75 percent chance of winning, according to the model. These are Arkansas, Colorado, Indiana, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Although some of these races — particularly Colorado and Wisconsin — could tighten, the G.O.P. has a fairly strong chance of winning all six if they are having a good night over all. (They will probably win Arkansas, Indiana and North Dakota even if they are having a disappointing night.)

Although earlier in the cycle, it had looked like some Republican-held seats were in play, that is less of a concern for them now. Instead, some races that had once seemed competitive — like Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio — have seen the Republican candidate gain ground in recent weeks.

...


Intrade gives the Dems a 56% chance of controlling the senate and the Reps a 75% chance of controlling the house.

 

[Ned Racine]

GOP takes 30 House seats. Falls a little short.

As of now Delaware goes Democrat, Murray in Washington, Boxer in California and Reid in Nevada survive. Connecticut and New York & west Va, could turn out to be pleasnt surprises for the GOP.