# Stage 3 testing doubts (1 Viewer)

#### RobertU

DP Veteran
So, tens of thousands of people are in stage 3 of various COVID-19 vaccine tests. Some get the vaccine, others a placebo. But how does this work exactly? I am guessing that nearly all the volunteers are acutely aware of the dangers of the disease. If nearly all use masks and do social distancing, will there be enough of them who catch the virus to measure the effectiveness of the vaccine?

Ideally, you should be giving the vaccine to a controlled population who you know will likely be exposed to the disease: reckless party goers and prisoners living in tight quarters. But in the latter case, this would be politically incorrect because you would hear social justice warriors screaming about “black men used as guinea pigs in medical experiments.”

So, tens of thousands of people are in stage 3 of various COVID-19 vaccine tests. Some get the vaccine, others a placebo. But how does this work exactly? I am guessing that nearly all the volunteers are acutely aware of the dangers of the disease. If nearly all use masks and do social distancing, will there be enough of them who catch the virus to measure the effectiveness of the vaccine?

Ideally, you should be giving the vaccine to a controlled population who you know will likely be exposed to the disease: reckless party goers and prisoners living in tight quarters. But in the latter case, this would be politically incorrect because you would hear social justice warriors screaming about “black men used as guinea pigs in medical experiments.”

It's pretty simple math. Something like 1 in 5000 Americans is getting infected every day right now. So even if they used a group of people not particularly likely to get infected, and there were 15k people in each group, you'd expect about 3 people in the control group to get infected every day, or almost 300 over the course of a 3 month trial.

They did it with syphilis.

So, tens of thousands of people are in stage 3 of various COVID-19 vaccine tests. Some get the vaccine, others a placebo. But how does this work exactly? I am guessing that nearly all the volunteers are acutely aware of the dangers of the disease. If nearly all use masks and do social distancing, will there be enough of them who catch the virus to measure the effectiveness of the vaccine?

Ideally, you should be giving the vaccine to a controlled population who you know will likely be exposed to the disease: reckless party goers and prisoners living in tight quarters. But in the latter case, this would be politically incorrect because you would hear social justice warriors screaming about “black men used as guinea pigs in medical experiments.”

There's a segment of the population which makes it a point to minimize the impact of racial prejudice in the United States of America. That said, it's interesting to note the number of posts on political social media which, almost regardless of the topic at hand, manage to refer to race.

Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

So, tens of thousands of people are in stage 3 of various COVID-19 vaccine tests. Some get the vaccine, others a placebo. But how does this work exactly? I am guessing that nearly all the volunteers are acutely aware of the dangers of the disease. If nearly all use masks and do social distancing, will there be enough of them who catch the virus to measure the effectiveness of the vaccine?

Ideally, you should be giving the vaccine to a controlled population who you know will likely be exposed to the disease: reckless party goers and prisoners living in tight quarters. But in the latter case, this would be politically incorrect because you would hear social justice warriors screaming about “black men used as guinea pigs in medical experiments.”

Can you do me a favor and research now many "reckless partygoers' were killed by COVID?

There's a segment of the population which makes it a point to minimize the impact of racial prejudice in the United States of America. That said, it's interesting to note the number of posts on political social media which, almost regardless of the topic at hand, manage to refer to race.

Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

Can you do me a favor and research how many unarmed white people were killed last year vs. unarmed black people? Thank you.

So, tens of thousands of people are in stage 3 of various COVID-19 vaccine tests. Some get the vaccine, others a placebo. But how does this work exactly? I am guessing that nearly all the volunteers are acutely aware of the dangers of the disease. If nearly all use masks and do social distancing, will there be enough of them who catch the virus to measure the effectiveness of the vaccine?

Ideally, you should be giving the vaccine to a controlled population who you know will likely be exposed to the disease: reckless party goers and prisoners living in tight quarters. But in the latter case, this would be politically incorrect because you would hear social justice warriors screaming about “black men used as guinea pigs in medical experiments.”

So, YOU are doubting the science and the health experts? Do you have any links to facts, other than your opinions?

So, YOU are doubting the science and the health experts? Do you have any links to facts, other than your opinions?

Health experts are warning that premature approval of a vaccine which has not completed trials according to established clinical protocols is potentially hazardous. That isn't my opinion.

Can you do me a favor and research now many "reckless partygoers' were killed by COVID?

Can you do me a favor and research how many unarmed white people were killed last year vs. unarmed black people? Thank you.

Your are the king of the fallacy, got it.

Does it not concern you that you can't debate in an accepted manner?

So, tens of thousands of people are in stage 3 of various COVID-19 vaccine tests. Some get the vaccine, others a placebo. But how does this work exactly? I am guessing that nearly all the volunteers are acutely aware of the dangers of the disease. If nearly all use masks and do social distancing, will there be enough of them who catch the virus to measure the effectiveness of the vaccine?

Ideally, you should be giving the vaccine to a controlled population who you know will likely be exposed to the disease: reckless party goers and prisoners living in tight quarters. But in the latter case, this would be politically incorrect because you would hear social justice warriors screaming about “black men used as guinea pigs in medical experiments.”

My understanding is that these trials are conducted in areas where there is a lot of Covid circulating, not only in this country, but in other countries like Brazil. It would make little sense to enroll volunteers in Hawaii where there isn't enough virus for exposure (fortunately). We are going to have to trust the process and make very certain that the donkey of Pennsylvania Avenue does not try to force a vaccine to become available before it is proven safe in the short term and effective. Trust me: he will try. He will do anything to try to get re-elected.

Your are the king of the fallacy, got it.

Does it not concern you that you can't debate in an accepted manner?

There is no debating going on here, particularly from you. It's all hysterical emotions and the sky is falling.

There is no debating going on here, particularly from you. It's all hysterical emotions and the sky is falling.

says the man who only responds in fallacy

There is no debating going on here, particularly from you. It's all hysterical emotions and the sky is falling.

"It will be forgotten by August". That's how you'll be remembered; and you complain about debating? Seems to me it's only you who agrees with either your predictions or your interesting take on mathematics.
See, for most people when everyone disagrees with what you are saying, that's the time to step back and have a quiet word with yourself. "But Sweden...":roll:

Devising a statistically sound protocol for a vaccine is far more complex than developing one for a cure. For cures, the subjects are already confirmed to have the malady. All that's really needed is to eliminate those who have characteristics which would interfere with the evaluation of the efficacy of the treatment and ensure that there is a satisfactory distribution of age and gender. Then, some get the treatment and some do not. That's all there is to it.

For vaccines, though, there are the problems of interfering characteristics and also those of exposure. As the test subjects start with not having the disease, the trial must somehow include exposure to it. There are ethical issues involved. Can the entire group be purposely exposed to the disease? If not, how can exposure be achieved in a manner which does not skew the results?

'Nuf said.

Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and social distancing.

"It will be forgotten by August". That's how you'll be remembered; and you complain about debating? Seems to me it's only you who agrees with either your predictions or your interesting take on mathematics.
See, for most people when everyone disagrees with what you are saying, that's the time to step back and have a quiet word with yourself. "But Sweden...":roll:

I posted my response to this. Kinda like Trump saying a vaccine should be ready by the first of November and the left freaking out because they can't have that UNLESS Biden wins.

I posted my response to this. Kinda like Trump saying a vaccine should be ready by the first of November and the left freaking out because they can't have that UNLESS Biden wins.

No, what you don't seem to be able to get through your skull is that it takes MONTHS or YEARS for clinical trials to be completed according to established protocols. This has nothing to do with Trump or Biden or politics. Learn:

How long do clinical trials take?

If you think a viable, safe and effective vaccine is going to be ready by November or even before the year is out, you're deluding yourself.

No, what you don't seem to be able to get through your skull is that it takes MONTHS or YEARS for clinical trials to be completed according to established protocols. This has nothing to do with Trump or Biden or politics. Learn:

How long do clinical trials take?

If you think a viable, safe and effective vaccine is going to be ready by November or even before the year is out, you're deluding yourself.

No time to cross every T and dot every I. You guys claim this is a big pandemic, so Trump is nudging the lazy incompetent bureaucrats to get off their duffs.

Now that I think of it, if he just sat around waiting for the process, liberals would be saying, "He should be a 'leader' and take a whip to the FDA and others to get cracking but he's just letting it take years while people are dying. No matter WHAT Trump does, the hate crowd attacks him Joseph Goebbels.....be proud of what you taught.

So, tens of thousands of people are in stage 3 of various COVID-19 vaccine tests. Some get the vaccine, others a placebo. But how does this work exactly?
Most trials find volunteers, who receive injections. Neither the participant nor the doctor or nurse administering the injection know if it is the vaccine or the placebo.

One thing they check for is side effects. That's pretty standard.

Next, they'll test if the subject gets symptoms. The design of the study varies; I assume some test regularly, others seem to only test if someone shows symptoms.

Some studies are also testing for the presence of antibodies, and how long they stay in the recipient's system.

If nearly all use masks and do social distancing, will there be enough of them who catch the virus to measure the effectiveness of the vaccine?
The trials are RCTs. Meaning there are control groups.

They don't tell people to deliberately engage in risky behavior.

This is one of the reasons why developing the vaccine takes so long. They have to compare the rate of infection between the two groups, handle factors that might impact the data (like profession or age), and wait long enough to see if there's a difference. That can easily take 6 months or more. Several of the studies are scheduled for 2 years.

Ideally, you should be giving the vaccine to a controlled population who you know will likely be exposed to the disease: reckless party goers and prisoners living in tight quarters. But in the latter case, this would be politically incorrect because you would hear social justice warriors screaming about “black men used as guinea pigs in medical experiments.”
:roll:

Or, it would be immoral -- not "politically incorrect," but downright immoral -- to let parties happen, or to compel prisoners to test a vaccine.

By the way, there are already strict laws on medical experimentation for prisoners, in no small part because their ability to consent is compromised as a result of their sentences.
Electronic Code of Federal Regulations (eCFR)

No time to cross every T and dot every I. You guys claim this is a big pandemic, so Trump is nudging the lazy incompetent bureaucrats to get off their duffs.

Now that I think of it, if he just sat around waiting for the process, liberals would be saying, "He should be a 'leader' and take a whip to the FDA and others to get cracking but he's just letting it take years while people are dying. No matter WHAT Trump does, the hate crowd attacks him Joseph Goebbels.....be proud of what you taught.

Could you post anything more clueless? Try; I'd hate for you to let us down. I posted something called FACTS-y'know, those things you don't understand.

Could you post anything more clueless? Try; I'd hate for you to let us down. I posted something called FACTS-y'know, those things you don't understand.

It is a FACT that when you are developing a medication it takes years. But, it can also be sped up when there is a priority. You do think COVID meets that requirement, amirite?

It is a FACT that when you are developing a medication it takes years. But, it can also be sped up when there is a priority. You do think COVID meets that requirement, amirite?

No. Emphatically not. If you want a drug THOROUGHLY trialled, PROPERLY tested for safety and efficacy these are not things that can be rushed. If you try to you'll get incomplete, inaccurate and untrustworthy results-with potentially dangerous consequences. That's the reason clinical trial protocols were adopted in the first place. Learn:

Roche - What is a clinical trial and how does a trial work?

No. Emphatically not. If you want a drug THOROUGHLY trialled, PROPERLY tested for safety and efficacy these are not things that can be rushed. If you try to you'll get incomplete, inaccurate and untrustworthy results-with potentially dangerous consequences. That's the reason clinical trial protocols were adopted in the first place. Learn:

Roche - What is a clinical trial and how does a trial work?

I am well aware of all that. According to you, we don't have that kind of time. Unless you are unemployed or work for the government, you can't sit back and wait for every T to be crossed. Your life depends on it. Worldwide depression looms. All this is needed because of the media created hysteria.

However, this virus is running out of sick and elderly to kill. Please see Sweden, NY, New Joisy, Mass., Conn., and Manaus. No more to kill.

I am well aware of all that. According to you, we don't have that kind of time. Unless you are unemployed or work for the government, you can't sit back and wait for every T to be crossed. Your life depends on it. Worldwide depression looms. All this is needed because of the media created hysteria.

However, this virus is running out of sick and elderly to kill. Please see Sweden, NY, New Joisy, Mass., Conn., and Manaus. No more to kill.

Your life may well depend on a thoroughly trialled vaccine. "But Sweden...". Your 'Sweden' myth has been thoroughly debunked by the way.

Your life may well depend on a thoroughly trialled vaccine. "But Sweden...". Your 'Sweden' myth has been thoroughly debunked by the way.

And yet it hasn't. I Just went over the alleged social distancing and it is all due to a PHONE survey!!! Besides which, even on the survey it was found that at least 2 out of ten DON'T social distance meaning those two UNMASKED people could infect thousands. Yet, they didn't.

Go figure, eh?