Missouri Mule
DP Veteran
- Joined
- Jul 14, 2005
- Messages
- 1,406
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- 48
- Location
- Hot Springs, Arkansas
- Gender
- Male
- Political Leaning
- Conservative
I have been reading this analyst for a long time and he lays it out in such a way anyone ought to be able to understand. I get a weekly newsletter and am sharing it with the readers here. I happen to share his views and have for some time. He also has a very good book entitled "America's Secret War." Highly recommended. FYI. The full fledged report runs about $500 per year and is considered by many to be a quasi CIA report. I concur.
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GEOPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT
07.26.2005
Al Qaeda's Global Campaign: Tet Offensive or Battle of the Bulge?
By George Friedman
A spate of attacks have occurred recently that we attribute to al Qaeda. In addition to the two rounds of attacks in London this month and the bombings at Sharm el Sheikh, we have seen ongoing suicide bombings in Afghanistan and Iraq that targeted government officials, the bombing of a Sufi shrine in Islamabad, the abduction and murder of an Iranian security official and other killings in the Muslim world. In addition, we have seen an intensification of attacks in Iraq by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's al Qaeda-linked faction. We are not great believers in coincidence and therefore regard these incidents as being coordinated. The degree of coordination and the method whereby coordination is achieved is murky, and not really material. But that we are experiencing an offensive by al Qaeda is clear.
At issue is the nature of the offensive. To put the matter simply, do these attacks indicate the ongoing, undiminished strength of al Qaeda, or do they represent a final, desperate counterattack -- both within Iraq and globally -- to attempt to reverse al Qaeda's fortunes? In our view, the latter is the case. Al Qaeda, having been hammered over the past four years, and al-Zarqawi, facing the defection of large segments of his Sunni base of support, are engaged in a desperate attempt to reverse the course of the war. It is not clear that they will fail; such counter-offensives have succeeded in recent years. The question is whether this is a Tet offensive or a Battle of the Bulge.
[Moderator note: The entirety of the article is available online here: Al Qaeda's Global Campaign: Tet Offensive or Battle of the Bulge? ]
=============================================
GEOPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT
07.26.2005
Al Qaeda's Global Campaign: Tet Offensive or Battle of the Bulge?
By George Friedman
A spate of attacks have occurred recently that we attribute to al Qaeda. In addition to the two rounds of attacks in London this month and the bombings at Sharm el Sheikh, we have seen ongoing suicide bombings in Afghanistan and Iraq that targeted government officials, the bombing of a Sufi shrine in Islamabad, the abduction and murder of an Iranian security official and other killings in the Muslim world. In addition, we have seen an intensification of attacks in Iraq by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's al Qaeda-linked faction. We are not great believers in coincidence and therefore regard these incidents as being coordinated. The degree of coordination and the method whereby coordination is achieved is murky, and not really material. But that we are experiencing an offensive by al Qaeda is clear.
At issue is the nature of the offensive. To put the matter simply, do these attacks indicate the ongoing, undiminished strength of al Qaeda, or do they represent a final, desperate counterattack -- both within Iraq and globally -- to attempt to reverse al Qaeda's fortunes? In our view, the latter is the case. Al Qaeda, having been hammered over the past four years, and al-Zarqawi, facing the defection of large segments of his Sunni base of support, are engaged in a desperate attempt to reverse the course of the war. It is not clear that they will fail; such counter-offensives have succeeded in recent years. The question is whether this is a Tet offensive or a Battle of the Bulge.
[Moderator note: The entirety of the article is available online here: Al Qaeda's Global Campaign: Tet Offensive or Battle of the Bulge? ]
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