SORRYANTIVAXXER.COM

[fireflygmf]

I think the reason such data works to convince ant-vaxxers that they were right is because they're unintelligent people, or at least innumerate. Take the idea that 40% of COVID deaths are among the vaccinated. If 67% of people are vaccinated, that means the vaccinated are dying at vastly lower rates.

And even that understates the case dramatically, since vaccinations are disproportionately common among people who are vulnerable (since they're more likely to make the effort to protect themselves). 92% of Americans age 65 and up are vaccinated. Once you control for age, you're currently about 6x as likely to die of COVID if you're unvaccinated. And that's just controlling for age. If we had stats showing vaccination rates for those with various conditions making them more vulnerable (e.g., cancer patients), we'd likely find much higher vaccination rates for them, too, so if we backed them out of the stats (or only looked at them), we'd find death rates for the unvaccinated more than 6x as high.

And as huge as that gap is, it was bigger before... it's just that infections are like getting vaccinated the hard way. So, as more an more unvaccinated people get infected and either die (disappearing from the stats after that), or recover (coming away with resistance to the disease), we'd expect the gap in COVID death rates between the vaccinated and unvaccinated to shrink.... the vaccinated will still be better off, since a vaccination plus prior infection is more protective than a prior infection alone, but that gap is smaller than the gap when neither had a prior infection to have prepped the immune system.

You show acceptable reasoning and math skills, which is a rarity on this site - congrats on being one of the chosen few. I'll completely agree with your numerical breakdown and the rough approximation of a 6x higher risk of death if unvaccinated.

Where we disagree is the reason why some folk choose not to be vaccinated. I don't think it's because they are overwhelmingly stupid (however, I agree that most people are innumerate). Over the last couple of years, it seems to me that those types of people are valuing something more than their own safety - the 'idea' of their freedom. How or why vaccination has been tied to freedom and individualism escapes me, but it seems more of a quasi-religious position to take, they aren't allowing themselves to completely consider the reasoning. Very similar to how people behave in religions or cults. I'm not convinced it's a function of intelligence though, most of these people are suspending their ability to reason in this particular circumstance (IMHO).