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So Krauts, Merkel is out?

Grandpappy

Grandpappy

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Who replaces her, left or right?
 
Grandpappy said:
Who replaces her, left or right?
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Most likely Olaf Scholz, the SPD leader, but considering the close result CDU's Armin Laschet might get a chance if Scholz can't find a coalition. My 5 cents is that neither Scholz nor Laschet will be able to get the Greens and FDP to agree to anything, which leads to another SPD- CDU grand coalition, just with SPD leading it instead.
 
joluoto said:
Most likely Olaf Scholz, the SPD leader, but considering the close result CDU's Armin Laschet might get a chance if Scholz can't find a coalition. My 5 cents is that neither Scholz nor Laschet will be able to get the Greens and FDP to agree to anything, which leads to another SPD- CDU grand coalition, just with SPD leading it instead.
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Is that kind of like the Democrats holding a razor thin majority in Congress and being able to accomplish little even though they technically have the 'majority'?
 
MaryP said:
Is that kind of like the Democrats holding a razor thin majority in Congress and being able to accomplish little even though they technically have the 'majority'?
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Coalition forming in countries with multi party systems is a Byzantine process of backstabbing and grandstanding, where parties have to decide what they can compromise on, or whether any compromise is desirable at all. Sometimes it might be better to sit in the Opposition where you don't have to compromise than be part of a government that does things your voters won't like. The Grand Coalitions between CDU and SPD that has happened quite often during the Merkel years was not because anyone wanted them, both CDU and SPD would rather avoid that scenario, and the voters hate them. They have been formed because no other alternatives were viable with the smaller parties being unwilling to buckle on their key issues.
 
joluoto said:
Coalition forming in countries with multi party systems is a Byzantine process of backstabbing and grandstanding, where parties have to decide what they can compromise on, or whether any compromise is desirable at all. Sometimes it might be better to sit in the Opposition where you don't have to compromise than be part of a government that does things your voters won't like. The Grand Coalitions between CDU and SPD that has happened quite often during the Merkel years was not because anyone wanted them, both CDU and SPD would rather avoid that scenario, and the voters hate them. They have been formed because no other alternatives were viable with the smaller parties being unwilling to buckle on their key issues.
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I was thinking a system like that would be good for the US, to break the two party gridlock, but it sounds as if politicians are difficult everywhere.
 
MaryP said:
I was thinking a system like that would be good for the US, to break the two party gridlock, but it sounds as if politicians are difficult everywhere.
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The multi party system is by far superior as it rarely allows one party go crazy on policy. There are of course exceptions.
 
MaryP said:
I was thinking a system like that would be good for the US, to break the two party gridlock, but it sounds as if politicians are difficult everywhere.
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Multi party systems tend to force compromises, and give smaller parties that represent interests the big parties don't care about an opportunity to become relevant. Sometimes they tend to cause alot of headache of course, especially during coalition negotiations.
 
MaryP said:
I was thinking a system like that would be good for the US, to break the two party gridlock, but it sounds as if politicians are difficult everywhere.
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What you're really saying is the democrats get too many victories for your liking.
 
bahaha the spd can only win when there's no real difference between them and the CDU,
 
Colin Norris said:
What you're really saying is the democrats get too many victories for your liking.
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Is that what she's really saying? You know this how? Don't worry, I really don't expect an honest answer.
 

German election 2021: Tough talks ahead in race to replace Merkel — live updates​


Some important things from this article:

1. The Greens and FDP are talking to each other. This is important. The first step to get anything else than another Grand Coalition requires some kind of agreement between them. If they can come to an agreement they become kingmakers and can basically pick whether they want Scholz or Lachet.

2. Markus Söder and CSU are admitting defeat (which Laschet is not, though it makes sense for Laschet to not do that since CDU can still come out on top if SPD lose the coalition game). This might be another challenge by CSU and Söder to Laschet's leadership, and a reminder that he needs CSU's compliance with whatever CDU does next.
 
notquiteright said:
WOW, I haven't seen Kraut since the old WWII books and you ain't that old... :cautious:

When I served we used Komrade or 'Rade for Germans- what terms did you use when you served??? ✌️
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There are some people here I think went into some kind of hybernation around 1928, and only recently woke up.
 
Grandpappy said:
Who replaces her, left or right?
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They are not Krauts, they are Germans.

And the biggest party normally produces the Kanzler (prime-minister). The CDU/CSU (center right, Christian democrats) has been seriously hit by big losses, the SPD (center left, socialist democrats) has made large gains and now seems to be the largest party.

The most logical government is not black/red or red/black (SPD and CDU/CSU) but the stoplight coalition, red/yellow/green (SPD, FDP liberal right, and the Green party).
 
Peter King said:
They are not Krauts, they are Germans.

And the biggest party normally produces the Kanzler (prime-minister). The CDU/CSU (center right, Christian democrats) has been seriously hit by big losses, the SPD (center left, socialist democrats) has made large gains and now seems to be the largest party.

The most logical government is not black/red or red/black (SPD and CDU/CSU) but the stoplight coalition, red/yellow/green (SPD, FDP liberal right, and the Green party).
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Actually there is no constitutional stipulation that government be formed by the strongest party, but putting Laschet into Chancellorship now would have a pretty disgusting taste. To the point that any such government would be so unpopular with the public that it would be most imprudent for any party (the potential small coalition partners included) to risk it.

Of course one can count on the short voter memory but when the biggest loser of this election still tries to cling to power (by blathering about forming a Conservative-Green- Liberal Right coalition), that memory may last longer than usual.

Within the CDU (and especially the CSU) there is already a lot of whetting of the long knives, on the premise that keeping this incompetent fool (Laschet) will do them even more harm in the future than he's done already.
 
Right now I'd say everything will be decided not by SPD or CDU, but by the Greens and FDP. Because they need to find some way to work together either under SPD or CDU. If they can't then that alternative goes out the window.
 
Chagos said:
Actually there is no constitutional stipulation that government be formed by the strongest party, but putting Laschet into Chancellorship now would have a pretty disgusting taste. To the point that any such government would be so unpopular with the public that it would be most imprudent for any party (the potential small coalition partners included) to risk it.

Of course one can count on the short voter memory but when the biggest loser of this election still tries to cling to power (by blathering about forming a Conservative-Green- Liberal Right coalition), that memory may last longer than usual.

Within the CDU (and especially the CSU) there is already a lot of whetting of the long knives, on the premise that keeping this incompetent fool (Laschet) will do them even more harm in the future than he's done already.
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That is why I said normally, there is even a possibility that CDU/CSU could join forces with the Green party and the FDP (the natural partner of the CDU/CSU).
 
Peter King said:
That is why I said normally, there is even a possibility that CDU/CSU could join forces with the Green party and the FDP (the natural partner of the CDU/CSU).
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Not that I'm particularly sympathetic to the alternative SPD-Green-FDP government (should it come to pass), but losers belong on the opposition benches.

And the CDU/CSU is the loser here. Not only by the SPD having surpassed them but by having carted in a historical crash that is the worst in the whole party history.

From what I hear there's considerable unrest right now in the CDU, with some even calling for Laschet to retire.
 
MaryP said:
I was thinking a system like that would be good for the US, to break the two party gridlock, but it sounds as if politicians are difficult everywhere
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I personally like what we call a minority government. Unlike Germany and Israel, there is no need in Canada to form a formal governing coalition. The party that wins the most seats forms the government and their leader becomes the PM even though the total seats held by other parties is greater. However, to govern, they must form informal coalitions with other parties to get bills passed. If all the other parties join forces they can force a vote of non confidence which triggers a new election. Therefore the minority government is forced to compromise with at least one other party to get legislation passed. It's checks and balances at its best.
 
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