So... It's looking like a Contested Convention has become the probability

[cpwill]

538's Expert Panel Aggregate at current has Trump ending the Primaries with 1175, though this will change as states and state parties vote/caucus/decide in the upcoming weeks/months. Betting markets are putting the chances of a Contested Convention at above 60%.


So here are 538's Expert Aggregates:




Note, however, that some of them are almost certainly wrong. Delaware, for example, is winner-take-all, yet Trump only gets 15/16. This is because the system weighted probability.

Readjusting to fit that reality gives Trump an additional Delegate in Delaware and Pennsylvania, but takes one from Nebraska.

Going forward, boondoggles such as completely bungling attempts to get delegates to stand for Trump in Washington will be (I suspect) likely to drive Trump's numbers lower off of the projections, though a string of wins in New York and a shut-out of state victories (though not of delegates) on April 26th could reinvigorate his following.


Going forward, Trump needs to win states with more than 40% of the vote, and gain 66% of the remaining delegates in order to avoid a contested convention. Thus far he has won about 37% of the vote and about 46% of the delegates.

 

[reinoe]

This isn't surprising. I was never contacted for the Nevada COUNTY CONVENTIONS and it seems like Trump dumped his staffers after the states voted, not realizing that the delegates still had to be selected for the most part. If Trump loses this election it'll be because of Trump and not anything else.

 

[MrT]

538's Expert Panel Aggregate at current has Trump ending the Primaries with 1175, though this will change as states and state parties vote/caucus/decide in the upcoming weeks/months. Betting markets are putting the chances of a Contested Convention at above 60%.


So here are 538's Expert Aggregates:

Note, however, that some of them are almost certainly wrong. Delaware, for example, is winner-take-all, yet Trump only gets 15/16. This is because the system weighted probability.

Readjusting to fit that reality gives Trump an additional Delegate in Delaware and Pennsylvania, but takes one from Nebraska.

Going forward, boondoggles such as completely bungling attempts to get delegates to stand for Trump in Washington will be (I suspect) likely to drive Trump's numbers lower off of the projections, though a string of wins in New York and a shut-out of state victories (though not of delegates) on April 26th could reinvigorate his following.


Going forward, Trump needs to win states with more than 40% of the vote, and gain 66% of the remaining delegates in order to avoid a contested convention. Thus far he has won about 37% of the vote and about 46% of the delegates.

I was planning on posting my own thread on this topic, but you've done such a good job combining various articles on this topic, that I am just going to piggy back off your thread and add to this discussion.

It appears as though Trump has one narrow path to obtain the 1237 and avoid a contested convention is to go through Indiana. And while the polling in Indiana is scarce (practically non-existent in fact), there is rampant anti-trump sentiment amongst the GOP leadership in Indiana - And while the state does award its delegates to the winner of each district on the first ballot, it looks like the delegates selected will overwhelming turn their back on Trump once the first ballot is finished.

 

[MrT]

This isn't surprising. I was never contacted for the Nevada COUNTY CONVENTIONS and it seems like Trump dumped his staffers after the states voted, not realizing that the delegates still had to be selected for the most part. If Trump loses this election it'll be because of Trump and not anything else.

Well that was always the case.

By the way, did you hear that two of Trump's kids failed to register as Republicans in time and therefore will not be able to vote for him in the NY Primary?

 

[Lovebug]

This will be interesting to watch. It could result in a complete overhaul of our election process and, hopefully, will end the 2 party nonsense.

 

[cpwill]

Well that was always the case.

By the way, did you hear that two of Trump's kids failed to register as Republicans in time and therefore will not be able to vote for him in the NY Primary?

Gosh. They aren't really Republicans? Shocking.

 

[cpwill]

This will be interesting to watch. It could result in a complete overhaul of our election process and, hopefully, will end the 2 party nonsense.

So long as we have the electoral and governing system that we do, we will have a two-party system.

 

[cpwill]

I was planning on posting my own thread on this topic, but you've done such a good job combining various articles on this topic, that I am just going to piggy back off your thread and add to this discussion.

It appears as though Trump has one narrow path to obtain the 1237 and avoid a contested convention is to go through Indiana. And while the polling in Indiana is scarce (practically non-existent in fact), there is rampant anti-trump sentiment amongst the GOP leadership in Indiana - And while the state does award its delegates to the winner of each district on the first ballot, it looks like the delegates selected will overwhelming turn their back on Trump once the first ballot is finished.

Cruz has done an excellent job of winning the delegate war. It speaks well to his management capabilities.

538, for what it's worth, concurs with your assessment

It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention

...Trump’s delegate problems stem from two major issues. One is his lack of organization: Trump just recently hired a strategist to oversee his delegate-selection efforts; Cruz has been working on the process for months. The other is his lack of support from “party elites.” The people who attend state caucuses and conventions are mostly dyed-in-the-wool Republican regulars and insiders, a group that is vigorously opposed to Trump. Furthermore, some delegate slots are automatically given to party leaders and elected officials, another group that strongly opposes Trump, as evident in his lack of endorsements among them.

There are various ways these delegates could cause problems for Trump. The most obvious, as I mentioned, is if the convention goes to a second ballot because no candidate wins a majority on the first. Not all delegates become free instantaneously,2 but most do, and left to vote their personal preference, most of them will probably oppose Trump.

Conversely, Trump isn’t totally safe even if he locks up 1,237 delegates by the time the final Republicans vote. The delegates have a lot of power, both on the convention floor and in the various rules and credentials committees that will begin meeting before the convention officially begins. If they wanted to, the delegates could deploy a “nuclear option” on Trump and vote to unbind themselves on the first ballot, a strategy Ted Kennedy unsuccessfully pursued against Jimmy Carter in 1980....

 

[cpwill]

I was planning on posting my own thread on this topic, but you've done such a good job combining various articles on this topic, that I am just going to piggy back off your thread and add to this discussion.

It appears as though Trump has one narrow path to obtain the 1237 and avoid a contested convention is to go through Indiana. And while the polling in Indiana is scarce (practically non-existent in fact), there is rampant anti-trump sentiment amongst the GOP leadership in Indiana - And while the state does award its delegates to the winner of each district on the first ballot, it looks like the delegates selected will overwhelming turn their back on Trump once the first ballot is finished.

Indiana appears to be breaking towards Trump, which, under current estimates would get him to 1218, but which, realistically, will probably cause him to pick up additional movement in the following states, getting him to 1237.

Looks like I might be voting third party for POTUS for the first time in my life.

 

[clownboy]

I was planning on posting my own thread on this topic, but you've done such a good job combining various articles on this topic, that I am just going to piggy back off your thread and add to this discussion.

It appears as though Trump has one narrow path to obtain the 1237 and avoid a contested convention is to go through Indiana. And while the polling in Indiana is scarce (practically non-existent in fact), there is rampant anti-trump sentiment amongst the GOP leadership in Indiana - And while the state does award its delegates to the winner of each district on the first ballot, it looks like the delegates selected will overwhelming turn their back on Trump once the first ballot is finished.

Ted Cruz Delegates Reconsider Supporting Donald Trump | National Review

NYT is reporting similar. Apparently the delegates are not eager to back Lyin Ted the loser.

 

[clownboy]

Indiana appears to be breaking towards Trump, which, under current estimates would get him to 1218, but which, realistically, will probably cause him to pick up additional movement in the following states, getting him to 1237.

Looks like I might be voting third party for POTUS for the first time in my life.

Yeah, you painted yourself into a corner early on that one.

 

[cpwill]

Yeah, you painted yourself into a corner early on that one.

....er.... no. I simply stated then (and continue to state) that I will not vote for a liberal authoritarian for President, regardless of the party affiliation. I don't secretly-want-to-vote-for-Trump-but-now-feel-I-can't. I merely have no intention of voting for either of the big-government New York Liberals running as the mainstream party candidates :shrug:

 

[clownboy]

....er.... no. I simply stated then (and continue to state) that I will not vote for a liberal authoritarian for President, regardless of the party affiliation. I don't secretly-want-to-vote-for-Trump-but-now-feel-I-can't. I merely have no intention of voting for either of the big-government New York Liberals running as the mainstream party candidates :shrug:

I like you and have agreed with most of your positions over the years, but really, if you hadn't painted yourself in this corner you'd be voting against Hillary (and making your vote matter in that regard). Face it, there have been lots of elections where you (and I) have voted for someone as a vote against the other fellow. Heck, I hated Romney, but I voted for him.

You put yourself in the position of looking like a hypocrite if you did that this time. Not a good place to be in the world of voting for president.

 

[azgreg]

538's Expert Panel Aggregate at current has Trump ending the Primaries with 1175, though this will change as states and state parties vote/caucus/decide in the upcoming weeks/months. Betting markets are putting the chances of a Contested Convention at above 60%.

(snip)

Note, however, that some of them are almost certainly wrong. Delaware, for example, is winner-take-all, yet Trump only gets 15/16. This is because the system weighted probability.

Readjusting to fit that reality gives Trump an additional Delegate in Delaware and Pennsylvania, but takes one from Nebraska.

Going forward, boondoggles such as completely bungling attempts to get delegates to stand for Trump in Washington will be (I suspect) likely to drive Trump's numbers lower off of the projections, though a string of wins in New York and a shut-out of state victories (though not of delegates) on April 26th could reinvigorate his following.


Going forward, Trump needs to win states with more than 40% of the vote, and gain 66% of the remaining delegates in order to avoid a contested convention. Thus far he has won about 37% of the vote and about 46% of the delegates.

Now the experts are saying 1211. Getting closer, but I hope he doesn't get there.

 

[clownboy]

Now the experts are saying 1211. Getting closer, but I hope he doesn't get there.

With the already committed unbound delegates from PA that makes more than 1,237.

 

[Gaius46]

ugh. Anyone have the number for Air Tahiti? Time to relocate.

 

[cpwill]

I like you and have agreed with most of your positions over the years, but really, if you hadn't painted yourself in this corner you'd be voting against Hillary (and making your vote matter in that regard).

Oh, I intend to vote against Hillary. I just also intend to vote against Trump. I accomplish this by voting third party, and voting against both of them.

Face it, there have been lots of elections where you (and I) have voted for someone as a vote against the other fellow. Heck, I hated Romney, but I voted for him.

I didn't like Romney, but voted for him as well. But that's about as far left as I'm willing to go. But Trump makes Romney look like a combination of Calvin Coolidge and Ronald Reagan. No thanks. I'd actually rather have Hillary win the election. Alexander Hamilton summed up my sentiment nicely: "If we must have an enemy at the head of government, let it be one whom we can oppose, and for whom we are not responsible." Trump at the top of the GOP ticket wrecks the conservative movement and the GOP. If you had given the DNC just one wish - just one! - at the beginning of this election cycle, then they would wish for precisely what is happening.

You put yourself in the position of looking like a hypocrite if you did that this time. Not a good place to be in the world of voting for president.

:shrug: I won't feel ashamed of myself after the election is over, as I would if I voted for someone like Hillary or someone like Trump. That's not inconsequential.

 

[azgreg]

ugh. Anyone have the number for Air Tahiti? Time to relocate.

HQ Phone: +689 86 40 00

Air Tahiti

:mrgreen:

 

[clownboy]

:shrug: I won't feel ashamed of myself after the election is over, as I would if I voted for someone like Hillary or someone like Trump. That's not inconsequential.

Absolutely agree. It's the rare presidential election I think any of us can say that.

 

[yankintx]

This isn't surprising. I was never contacted for the Nevada COUNTY CONVENTIONS and it seems like Trump dumped his staffers after the states voted, not realizing that the delegates still had to be selected for the most part. If Trump loses this election it'll be because of Trump and not anything else.

Trump has made some glaring errors in his ground game. If he does come up short a few delegates, it will be due to his inexperience, though he does seem to have learnt that jetting home each evening to sleep in his own bed, may not be the best idea.

 

[clownboy]

Trump has made some glaring errors in his ground game. If he does come up short a few delegates, it will be due to his inexperience, though he does seem to have learnt that jetting home each evening to sleep in his own bed, may not be the best idea.

Yeah, but as with all things Trump, what I thought was a big mistake (not paying enough attention to the delegate game), turns out to be an advantage. Look at the huge bump he's gotten from his talk of the system being rigged. And now those delegates are starting to change their tune. Perhaps he knew they would come around as they always do - for the one who is winning.

In fact, I think that as people see how he's winning the states and Cruz then takes the unbound delegates (announcing that's how he'll "win"), just drives them to the polls for Trump.

 

[clownboy]

Btw,

Overall, 91% of Republican voters think Trump will ultimately be the party's nominee. But if no candidate captures a majority of the delegates at stake in primaries and caucuses by the time the final contests are complete June 7, 60% of Republican voters say the delegates should vote for the candidate with the most support in the primaries, 37% for the one they think is the best candidate.

Americans agree Clinton and Trump headed for a faceoff - CNNPolitics.com

 

[yankintx]

Yeah, but as with all things Trump, what I thought was a big mistake (not paying enough attention to the delegate game), turns out to be an advantage. Look at the huge bump he's gotten from his talk of the system being rigged. And now those delegates are starting to change their tune. Perhaps he knew they would come around as they always do - for the one who is winning.

In fact, I think that as people see how he's winning the states and Cruz then takes the unbound delegates (announcing that's how he'll "win"), just drives them to the polls for Trump.

I just do not think it "drives" folks to the polls. The primary and general are two different animals. I voted for Trump here in TX, only to deny Cruz as many delegates as possible. In fact, that is the only reason I voted in the primary. How I vote in the General, not even considering Trump. is different.

 

[yankintx]

Btw,



Americans agree Clinton and Trump headed for a faceoff - CNNPolitics.com

The Rep voters will have had there say by the time the convention is open, if Trump is lacking the required number, then the RNC will decide. Providing Trump does not walk out with his supporters, either way, the GOP convention will be a bloodbath.

 

[clownboy]

The Rep voters will have had there say by the time the convention is open, if Trump is lacking the required number, then the RNC will decide. Providing Trump does not walk out with his supporters, either way, the GOP convention will be a bloodbath.

I think Trump will have the required majority (1,237) and then virtually all the unbound delegates will jump onboard on the very first ballot making him by far large margin the nominee. It won't be the outrageous floor fight that's anticipated. It'll be the normal amount of raucousness.