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FireUltra 98
As someone in the oil and refining industry, I'd like to comment on the above quotes by scottyz. First, I'm familiar with the Shell refinery issue in CA. Indeed, the feedstock for that refinery is limited and significant overhauls will be needed in order to change the refinery's process and accept a different grade of crude (i.e. Maya sour, Venezuelan or Canadian sour). Refineries are not all the same, and the cut (product slice) you get from a one grade of crude oil is different than the cut you get from another. For example, a refinery that is set up to take sweet crude will get more propane, gasoline and kerosene from its distillation process; whereas, a refinery consuming sour crude will get more jet fuel, diesel and asphalt. Now, take each grade of crude (sweet and sour - just like Chinese food ) and there are different "flavors" in each of those categories. So you can see, feedstock is an issue faced by refiners.
Regarding the other quote on refineries shutting down, that's just a simple economics challenge from the mid 90's. the memos you use are from 1996 and were based off economics from the late 80's thru the foreseeable future. However, the two quotes just don't line up from a time table standpoint. The market in the early to mid 90's was vastly different from the market of the past 3 or 4 years. from the late 80's thru 1999, crude oil was comparatively cheap cheap, gasoline was cheap and supply was outweighing demand every year from the late 80's thru 2000. I remember trading $10 crude oil in 1998 and OPEC was constantly talking about production cuts. And back then, there was nobody complaining about "if the oil companies were making enough money", the opposite of today's gripe. And guess what, we had to still invest the same amount of dollars into research, assets, drilling, etc. Capital is invested in good market conditions and bad.
I understand you're trying to tie big oil's profits to what seems to be a counter productive measure like reducing refinery capacity. However, the only problem is that your quotes are a decade apart and world's apart commercially. The Shell refinery in California issue is feedstock challenge and the Texaco issue of closing down refineries was a supply side issue. Heck, Texaco hasn't existed in several years, they're Chevron now.
Hope that helps.
Regarding the other quote on refineries shutting down, that's just a simple economics challenge from the mid 90's. the memos you use are from 1996 and were based off economics from the late 80's thru the foreseeable future. However, the two quotes just don't line up from a time table standpoint. The market in the early to mid 90's was vastly different from the market of the past 3 or 4 years. from the late 80's thru 1999, crude oil was comparatively cheap cheap, gasoline was cheap and supply was outweighing demand every year from the late 80's thru 2000. I remember trading $10 crude oil in 1998 and OPEC was constantly talking about production cuts. And back then, there was nobody complaining about "if the oil companies were making enough money", the opposite of today's gripe. And guess what, we had to still invest the same amount of dollars into research, assets, drilling, etc. Capital is invested in good market conditions and bad.
I understand you're trying to tie big oil's profits to what seems to be a counter productive measure like reducing refinery capacity. However, the only problem is that your quotes are a decade apart and world's apart commercially. The Shell refinery in California issue is feedstock challenge and the Texaco issue of closing down refineries was a supply side issue. Heck, Texaco hasn't existed in several years, they're Chevron now.
Hope that helps.