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Shut down? It's the economy that matters.

CriticalThought

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If the shut down runs into February, it won't be the current $6 billion a week we are flushing down the toilet every week that gets the headlines. We will see the economy begin to take a huge hit. This could even be enough to shred any gains Trump could claim to have made in two years and to push us into recession. Nobody is going to blame the Democrats if that happens. The Trump rhetoric is " the government could open tomorrow if the Democrats give us what we want" but the reality is if the Democrats yeilded on this, then Trump would shut down the government every chance he got to get more. That simple reality means the Dems have little choice but to hold their ground. The truth is the discussion on border protection does not end if Trump backs off, and he and his supporters know it. This is not about a "wall" to them. This is about not wanting to lose to Democrats at any cost. They are pot committed at this point to a game of chicken where there is no winner because the country as a whole will suffer. If after the last few weeks of watching how elastic the definition the "wall" is and how little they care how it is paid for, and how little they care what other factors go into immigration reform, you still think this actually has anything to do with border security then you are incredibly naive. But if they drive this to the point the economy suffers, then they have cut off their nose to spite their face.
 
It won't "shred" the economy. But I've seen estimates anywhere from 0.1% GDP loss every two weeks, to 0.1% loss every week.

So it will add-up if the shutdown is prolonged. Also unemployment claims crept up this last week due to the shutdown, and it will have some minimal effect on the employment rate too.

But it's mainly GDP that will take the hit ...
 
If the shut down runs into February, it won't be the current $6 billion a week we are flushing down the toilet every week that gets the headlines. We will see the economy begin to take a huge hit. This could even be enough to shred any gains Trump could claim to have made in two years and to push us into recession. Nobody is going to blame the Democrats if that happens. The Trump rhetoric is " the government could open tomorrow if the Democrats give us what we want" but the reality is if the Democrats yeilded on this, then Trump would shut down the government every chance he got to get more. That simple reality means the Dems have little choice but to hold their ground. The truth is the discussion on border protection does not end if Trump backs off, and he and his supporters know it. This is not about a "wall" to them. This is about not wanting to lose to Democrats at any cost. They are pot committed at this point to a game of chicken where there is no winner because the country as a whole will suffer. If after the last few weeks of watching how elastic the definition the "wall" is and how little they care how it is paid for, and how little they care what other factors go into immigration reform, you still think this actually has anything to do with border security then you are incredibly naive. But if they drive this to the point the economy suffers, then they have cut off their nose to spite their face.

Please explain:

1. How, exactly, will our economy be hurt by this shutdown? How will the shutdown result in the shredding of the 300,000+ jobs gained in December? How will the shutdown affect the 3.2% increase in wages?

2. Why is it that, from the Trump supporter's view, this is about not wanting to lose to Dems at any cost...but from the Dem's view, this is about the fear of Trump using the threat of shutdown every chance he gets? Can you explain why it isn't the other way around?

And, while you are at it, can you explain why Congressional Dems...Chuck and Nancy, in particular...refuse to allow DHS to brief them on the state of security on our southern border? Could it be they deliberately want to give truth to my sig?
 
The impact of the shutdown on the economy is not trivial, but it depends on how long this drags out.

It all comes down to some government employees working without pay. Meaning their spending goes down impacting the CS part of the GDP equation as those employees look to spend less while their income is removed. Others on furlough end up with those hours removed from GDP entirely, but also impact the CS part of the GDP equation as they participate in the economy less. All of this impact the GS part of the GDP equation as government spending goes down temporarily.

FHA (for example) is one of the areas that is mostly closed during this shutdown impacting some home loans all of which impacts at least 2 parts of the GDP math.

Most economists agree if the shutdown lasts through January we are looking at two-tenths of a percentage point of GDP at risk. Not a huge hit but not something to ignore either as it equates to roughly $8 billion off GDP.

That was just the math behind GDP.

The other issue is market sentiment, already facing enough headwinds from Trump’s Trade War, various concerns about Corporate Debt, Fed interest rate handling, cost of debt, political instability, etc.

Most economists are already warning about a recession at some point, perhaps in the next year. But the issue at hand is do we cause enough issues, the shutdown dragging on being one of those issues, to accelerate when the pending recession happens. The “bubbles” being pointed to are corporate debt being at record levels (as a percentage of GDP and actual) and consumer debt levels. Cost of debt is already going up and so is the risk associated with where investment puts their dollars to deal with hedge betting.
 
If the shut down runs into February, it won't be the current $6 billion a week we are flushing down the toilet every week that gets the headlines. We will see the economy begin to take a huge hit. This could even be enough to shred any gains Trump could claim to have made in two years and to push us into recession. Nobody is going to blame the Democrats if that happens. The Trump rhetoric is " the government could open tomorrow if the Democrats give us what we want" but the reality is if the Democrats yeilded on this, then Trump would shut down the government every chance he got to get more. That simple reality means the Dems have little choice but to hold their ground. The truth is the discussion on border protection does not end if Trump backs off, and he and his supporters know it. This is not about a "wall" to them. This is about not wanting to lose to Democrats at any cost. They are pot committed at this point to a game of chicken where there is no winner because the country as a whole will suffer. If after the last few weeks of watching how elastic the definition the "wall" is and how little they care how it is paid for, and how little they care what other factors go into immigration reform, you still think this actually has anything to do with border security then you are incredibly naive. But if they drive this to the point the economy suffers, then they have cut off their nose to spite their face.


Perhaps we can do a little "Logic" test on your thoughts:

A. The shutdown will cost the economy $6 billion with no explanation how this will happen.
B. This is a ploy by Trump who could less about the wall that he campaigned on.
C. Democrats will win this debate because they won't fund a segment of a "wall" for $5 billion. This is the
face of your cited $6 billion a week cost to the country.
D. Americans think that a border wall and border security is little concern.

What a well thought out position.
 
Please explain:

1. How, exactly, will our economy be hurt by this shutdown? How will the shutdown result in the shredding of the 300,000+ jobs gained in December? How will the shutdown affect the 3.2% increase in wages?

Food stamps, tax refunds, contracted services, etc. It all adds up. People aren't buying as much food and services then the economy takes a hit.

2. Why is it that, from the Trump supporter's view, this is about not wanting to lose to Dems at any cost...but from the Dem's view, this is about the fear of Trump using the threat of shutdown every chance he gets? Can you explain why it isn't the other way around?

Dems didn't shut down the government. It is that simple. The one holding it hostage is Trump. He even boasted about it before he did it.

And, while you are at it, can you explain why Congressional Dems...Chuck and Nancy, in particular...refuse to allow DHS to brief them on the state of security on our southern border? Could it be they deliberately want to give truth to my sig?

Horse and pony show built on classic "alternative facts".
 
Perhaps we can do a little "Logic" test on your thoughts:

A. The shutdown will cost the economy $6 billion with no explanation how this will happen.
B. This is a ploy by Trump who could less about the wall that he campaigned on.
C. Democrats will win this debate because they won't fund a segment of a "wall" for $5 billion. This is the
face of your cited $6 billion a week cost to the country.
D. Americans think that a border wall and border security is little concern.

What a well thought out position.

Facts.

A: We will pay backpay to federal employees, which means we are paying them to do nothing right now. That comes out to about $6 billion a week of waste.

https://www.newsweek.com/heres-how-much-government-shutdown-could-cost-786073

B: Trump only gave a crap about the wall when he saw it got him attention.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuart...donald-trumps-wall-came-from/#79d7c4e44156mp/

C: Yes. We are losing billions more to this shut down than what Trump is demanding.

D: Yes, most Americans do not care as much about the wall as you do.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-ame...cans-are-split-on-feelings-toward-border-wall
 
Food stamps, tax refunds, contracted services, etc. It all adds up. People aren't buying as much food and services then the economy takes a hit.

Really? Do you have any actual data to support this? For example, can you provide any real numbers that show that these examples you submit will counteract the constant increases in our economy to the point that our economy will become "shredded"?

I don't think you can.

Dems didn't shut down the government. It is that simple. The one holding it hostage is Trump. He even boasted about it before he did it.

Politics is a tango. It takes at least two to do it. The Dem Congress is part of the dance. They are just as responsible as Trump.

But your deflection doesn't matter. You didn't answer my question.

Horse and pony show built on classic "alternative facts".

Oh. Do you deny the fact that Chuck and Nancy refused to listen to the DHS report? Do you contend that fact is an "alternative fact"?

Sounds to me like you are just plain in denial.
 
Really? Do you have any actual data to support this? For example, can you provide any real numbers that show that these examples you submit will counteract the constant increases in our economy to the point that our economy will become "shredded"?

I don't think you can.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...-hurt-economy-and-volatile-market/2435168002/

Politics is a tango. It takes at least two to do it. The Dem Congress is part of the dance. They are just as responsible as Trump.

Your argument would have held weight had the Senate not already passed the budget resolution and then once Coulter and Limbaugh bitched, Trump threw McConnell's plans out the window to make his stand. This is the Trump show. He put Dems back to wall by choosing to engage this way. So no, they are not. They put forward the same budget resolution the Senate passed.

But your deflection doesn't matter. You didn't answer my question.

It wasn't a question but your opinion.


Oh. Do you deny the fact that Chuck and Nancy refused to listen to the DHS report? Do you contend that fact is an "alternative fact"?

As I understand it, they refused to be lectured on a bunch of cherry picked stats and anecdotal crap that has little to do with immigration policy.

Sounds to me like you are just plain in denial.

If that makes you feel better then believe what you like.
 
https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...-hurt-economy-and-volatile-market/2435168002/



Your argument would have held weight had the Senate not already passed the budget resolution and then once Coulter and Limbaugh bitched, Trump threw McConnell's plans out the window to make his stand. This is the Trump show. He put Dems back to wall by choosing to engage this way. So no, they are not. They put forward the same budget resolution the Senate passed.



It wasn't a question but your opinion.




As I understand it, they refused to be lectured on a bunch of cherry picked stats and anecdotal crap that has little to do with immigration policy.



If that makes you feel better then believe what you like.

That link is useless...paywall.

Trump makes his own decisions...as do his dance partners. They are all responsible for the show.

I asked a question. You won't answer it. Are you afraid to?

How would they know it was a bunch of cherry picked stats and such? They didn't listen to any of it.

But hey...you can actually read what they would have been told if they weren't intent upon putting truth to my sig. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Border-Briefing.pdf

So...what do you think? Are you STILL in denial?
 
I can't imagine that the government becoming entirely dysfunctional will have a very positive impact on the confidence of the markets in the long run.

And a long run it will be. One side, the Democrats, can't give in or else they automatically relegate themselves to powerlessness for the next two years, and the other side simply doesn't give a ****.

The next part of government to shut down, as I understand it, is the Federal Court system. What the hell is that going to entail?
 
It won't "shred" the economy. But I've seen estimates anywhere from 0.1% GDP loss every two weeks, to 0.1% loss every week.

So it will add-up if the shutdown is prolonged. Also unemployment claims crept up this last week due to the shutdown, and it will have some minimal effect on the employment rate too.

But it's mainly GDP that will take the hit ...

I would like to see any backup to how this will cost our $20 trillion GDP .001 per week. Where will the shortfall come from. Remember the workers will get back pay.
 
Facts.

A: We will pay backpay to federal employees, which means we are paying them to do nothing right now. That comes out to about $6 billion a week of waste.

https://www.newsweek.com/heres-how-much-government-shutdown-could-cost-786073

B: Trump only gave a crap about the wall when he saw it got him attention.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuart...donald-trumps-wall-came-from/#79d7c4e44156mp/

C: Yes. We are losing billions more to this shut down than what Trump is demanding.

D: Yes, most Americans do not care as much about the wall as you do.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-ame...cans-are-split-on-feelings-toward-border-wall

Unresponsive attempt at a response. When you get to college I would suggest up skip any courses in logic.
 
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