Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 2010

[mbig]

I dunno, we hear/see in this section alot about this 'reinvigorated arctic ice' but... it's clearly a small increase from a Longer term HUGE ice loss.
First Large Container ship from China to Europe.

Ship Travels Arctic From China to Europe
Northern Passage Shaves Two Weeks of Travel Time Off Journey
By COSTAS PARIS / WSJ.com
Updated August 19, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...2982364681464.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTTopStories

China's Yong Sheng is an unremarkable ship that is about to make history. It is the first container-transporting vessel to sail to Europe from China through the Arctic rather than taking the usual southerly route through the Suez Canal, shaving two weeks off the regular travel time in the process. The 19,000-ton Yong Sheng, operated by China's state-controlled Cosco Group, left the port of Dalian Aug. 8 and is scheduled to reach Rotterdam, in the Netherlands, via the Bering Strait Sept. 11. The travel time of about 35 days compares with the average of 48 days it would normally take to journey through the Suez Canal and Mediterranean Sea.
[.......]
"The Arctic route can cut 12 to 15 days from traditional routes, so the maritime industry calls it the Golden Waterway," Cosco said when the Yong Sheng's voyage was announced earlier this year. The Yong Sheng's travel comes as shipping volumes on the Arctic route are rising fast amid Warmer weather, which has kept the passage relatively Free of ice for longer than in recent decades.

The Russian-run NSR Administration has so far issued 393 permits this summer to use the waters above Siberia, compared with 46 last year and a mere 4 in 2010. The travel window usually opens in July and closes in late November when the ice concentration becomes prohibitive for sailing.

The Yong Sheng, shown in 2007, is making its Arctic journey amid Warmer weather that has Reduced ice.
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

"Our best months are September and October, where there is Barely any ice across the whole route," said Sergey Balmasov, head of the NSR Information Office.

"We expect a substantial increase in permit applications if temperatures continue to rise in coming years," he added. "But climate change could work both ways, so if temperatures come down the route will become impenetrable without ice-breaking escort ships."

Mr. Balmasov said even ships without ice-breaking capabilities received permits as the weather became Warmer. "This cuts the cost of operators as the seaway is free of ice and the voyage time significantly lower," he said.

Arctic ice covered 860,000 square miles last year, Off 53% from 1.8 million square miles in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center of the U.S.

The rate of change has astounded the scientific community, said Mark Serreze, director of the Colorado-based center, which is funded through grants from groups including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"It's Warming Very Quickly in the Arctic and I would not be surprised if we see summers with no ice at all over the next 20 years. That's why shipping companies are so excited over the prospects of the route," Mr. Serreze said.

"Over the past 50 years temperatures in the Arctic have gone up by around 4° Celsius, which is a Dramatic increase," he added. "This is much higher than the global average of around 1°."
A change of 4° Celsius is equivalent to a change of 7.2° in Fahrenheit.
[......]

 

[longview]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

I wish them luck, traversing the Arctic without an ice class hull, could be asking for trouble.
So far the 2013 ice is not as low as past years.

 

[joG]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

I dunno, we hear/see in this section alot about this 'reinvigorated arctic ice' but... it's clearly a small increase from a Longer term HUGE ice loss.
First Large Container ship from China to Europe.

I have been following this for quite some time and the developments are what were expected. The same is true for drilling and minerals under the erstwhile ice. A warmer world will improve some costs and resource availabilities. As always there are two sides to the coin. But the coastline should be longer and building sights cheaper.

 

[mbig]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

I have been following this for quite some time and the developments are what were expected. The same is true for drilling and minerals under the erstwhile ice. A warmer world will improve some costs and resource availabilities. As always there are two sides to the coin. But the coastline should be longer and building sights cheaper.

Since an inordinately large amount of the world's population lives in coastal areas, the net effect of the next century is likely to be negative.

 

[joG]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

Since an inordinately large amount of the world's population lives in coastal areas, the net effect of the next century is likely to be negative.

But, just think of how nice the brand new cities will be. Everything clean and fresh and at tomorrow's technological level du jour. It will be so nice.

 

[Lord of Planar]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

Looks like global warming only has good things!

 

[gslack]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

I dunno, we hear/see in this section alot about this 'reinvigorated arctic ice' but... it's clearly a small increase from a Longer term HUGE ice loss.
First Large Container ship from China to Europe.

Ship Travels Arctic From China to Europe
Northern Passage Shaves Two Weeks of Travel Time Off Journey
By COSTAS PARIS / WSJ.com
Updated August 19, 2013
Ship Travels Arctic From China to Europe - WSJ.com

Get back with us when it makes it... Oh and when it becomes the norm...

 

[mbig]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

Get back with us when it makes it... Oh and when it becomes the norm...

That's really just a/another Wisecrack from you.
The point of this string is that it's increasing dramatically and May become the norm
You really can do better than just a chip-on-your-shoulder reply. Or Not.

Russia has a shot at making this kind of the Northern Panama Canal.

Russia Moves to Promote Northeast Passage through Arctic Ocean - SPIEGEL ONLINE
By Marco Evers
Aug 22, 2013.

This year has seen a record number of ships pass through the Northeast Passage in the Arctic Ocean. Russian President Vladimir Putin is doing all he can to make the route even more attractive.

The earth has rarely been as Warm as it is today -- and it has never been this small. In the distant past, traveling from Hamburg to Shanghai by ship meant sailing around Africa, a journey of at least 28,000 kilometers (17,400 miles). A short cut became available in 1869, with the opening of the Suez Canal, an event so epochal that Giuseppe Verdi was asked to compose a hymn for the celebration. After that, the Hamburg-Shanghai route measured only about 20,000 kilometers.

Now another hymn could be needed, albeit a Russian one. Global warming has led to the Rapid Melting of Arctic sea ice. Where the thick ice pack stretched off the Siberian coast in August only a few years ago, there is nothing but the gray and cold Arctic Ocean today.

The ice cap off Siberia now almost completely disappears in the summer months. Although there are still isolated floes, the Arctic Ocean is navigable. Coastal ice vanished for the first time in the summer of 2005, and it has been disappearing every summer since 2007.
There was never as little Arctic ice as in mid-September 2012, and the ice has never melted as quickly as it did in the first half of July 2013, with an area twice the size of Bavaria disappearing every day.

The Barents Sea is now open, as is the Kara Sea, and even the Laptev Sea and the Chukchi Sea are currently navigable without an icebreaker escort (see map). The ice cap only remains intact farther to the north.

The record thaw in the polar region is giving hope to many ship owners, Russian politicians and energy companies like Gazprom and Novatek. As a result of climate change, a maritime route of only 14,000 kilometers now separates Hamburg and Shanghai. And an irresistible treasure lies buried about halfway along this route, in the virtually uninhabited but thawing permafrost of northwestern Siberia: one of the largest natural gas deposits on the planet.

Euphoric Tones
[........]

 

[gslack]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

That's really just a/another Wisecrack form you.
The point of this string is that it's increasing dramatic ally and May become the norm

You really can do better than just a chip-on-your-shoulder reply. Or Not.

Russia has a shot at making this kind of the Northern Panama Canal.

Russia Moves to Promote Northeast Passage through Arctic Ocean - SPIEGEL ONLINE
By Marco Evers
Aug 22, 2013.

That was just another tear-filled, emotionally driven, what-if scenario..

The entire article is about an attempt by the Chinese to get a faster. cheaper trade route. They base this hope on a so-far failing hypothesis, that we are causing the world to warm unprecedently.

And my response to that was to let us know when they make it and when it becomes the norm, then you may have a legitimate case for concern. You are treating this as if it's a done deal, when as we saw earlier this year with that little fiasco in the northwest passage, that it isn't a done deal...

Again, an attempt is not anything but an attempt..

 

[mbig]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

That was just another tear-filled, emotionally driven, what-if scenario..

The entire article is about an attempt by the Chinese to get a faster. cheaper trade route. They base this hope on a so-far failing hypothesis, that we are causing the world to warm unprecedently.

And my response to that was to let us know when they make it and when it becomes the norm, then you may have a legitimate case for concern. You are treating this as if it's a done deal, when as we saw earlier this year with that little fiasco in the northwest passage, that it isn't a done deal...

Again, an attempt is not anything but an attempt..

Your post was utter deflection/wisecrack.
The debate in the section has been about not only If there is warming, AGW warming, but most recently, Arctic warming. (and not a recent ice resurgence)
That is what this string addresses.. Successfully.

"Letting you know when it's the norm", is a Fallacious request/obtuse wisecrack, indeed Backfiring one to the debate here.
I am claiming, indeed demonstrating, recent warming, that has Become the "norm" in the last 5 years or so, but by conservative definition I wouldn't call it that yet.
The Ice Mass in the Arctic Has been declining for 50 years, so that part Could be called 'norm' just not the ice fee-ness of the last 5, even though it IS , again, Becoming the norm.

Also again, if your have anything but partisan cheap-shotting to offer, that would be a great improvement to the section.

 

[Jack Hays]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

Your post was utter deflection/wisecrack.
The debate in the section has been about not only If there is warming, AGW warming, but most recently, Arctic warming. (and not a recent ice resurgence)
That is what this string addresses.. Successfully.

"Letting you know when it's the norm", is a Fallacious request/obtuse wisecrack, indeed Backfiring one to the debate here.
I am claiming, indeed demonstrating, recent warming, that has Become the "norm" in the last 5 years or so, but by conservative definition I wouldn't call it that yet.
The Ice Mass in the Arctic Has been declining for 50 years, so that part Could be called 'norm' just not the ice fee-ness of the last 5, even though it IS , again, Becoming the norm.

Also again, if your have anything but partisan cheap-shotting to offer, that would be a great improvement to the section.

 

[mbig]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

And What is the above supposed to be Jack?
It's apparently a/yet another wattsupwiththat Link DUMP from someone who does Little but that.

This string is about the ARCTIC so 'any ole climate' horseshoe won't do.
Jack Hays Duhs it again.


EDIT to below Obligatory and Juvenile Last-wording. (he thinks he 'wins' that way)
Jack Hays Never has ANYTHING to say he didn't say in his first Link Dump in the string.
and even those, he Can't excerpt/Doesn't know what's relevant!
JH posts: 100% childish waste of bandwidth.

 

[Jack Hays]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

And What is the above supposed to be Jack?
It's apparently a/yet another wattsupwiththat Link DUMP from someone who does Little but that.

This string is about the ARCTIC so 'any ole climate' horseshoe won't do.
Jack Hays Duhs it again.

If there were any warming then I'd worry about the Arctic.eace

 

[gslack]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

Your post was utter deflection/wisecrack.
The debate in the section has been about not only If there is warming, AGW warming, but most recently, Arctic warming. (and not a recent ice resurgence)
That is what this string addresses.. Successfully.

"Letting you know when it's the norm", is a Fallacious request/obtuse wisecrack, indeed Backfiring one to the debate here.
I am claiming, indeed demonstrating, recent warming, that has Become the "norm" in the last 5 years or so, but by conservative definition I wouldn't call it that yet.
The Ice Mass in the Arctic Has been declining for 50 years, so that part Could be called 'norm' just not the ice fee-ness of the last 5, even though it IS , again, Becoming the norm.

Also again, if your have anything but partisan cheap-shotting to offer, that would be a great improvement to the section.

No it wasn't.. What you have is an article about an attempt, nothing more.. it's not a decleration of having accomplished anything but an attempt, so in reality you have nothing yet... Let me know when you do.. Oh and please keep the emotional outbreaks to a minimum. I told you tolet me know when they make it and when it becomes the norm, no reason to throw a fit. If you don't like the fact I pointed out it was only an attempt, and they haven't actually done it yet, perhaps waiting until they have done it, before posting about it would be a good idea..

 

[longview]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

The reality of this story may be more economic than anything else.
I suspect ship insurance to go the southern route has gone up due to pirates.
So the time, fuel, and payroll savings of the northern route, made the higher
loss risk of the northern route more viable.
The cost lines crossed, and people are willing to take the risk.
The only problem I see, is that the people taking the monetary risk,
and the people taking the "I may not live through this" risk,
are not the same people.

 

[mbig]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

No it wasn't.. What you have is an article about an attempt, nothing more.. it's not a decleration of having accomplished anything but an attempt, so in reality you have nothing yet... Let me know when you do.. Oh and please keep the emotional outbreaks to a minimum. I told you tolet me know when they make it and when it becomes the norm, no reason to throw a fit. If you don't like the fact I pointed out it was only an attempt, and they haven't actually done it yet, perhaps waiting until they have done it, before posting about it would be a good idea..

This string demonstrates significant recent melting of the last 6 or so years. (not to mention the 50 before that).
This is/remains Unaddressed/Untouched/Unrefuted by you.

So why don't you "let us know" when you have Anything of substance to contribute to this string.
As of now/Forever, you just partisan cheap shot.
100% insubstantial posts.
(you can tell any post is empty right wing hackery when polgara gives it a 'like')

The reality of this story may be more economic than anything else.
I suspect ship insurance to go the southern route has gone up due to pirates.
So the time, fuel, and payroll savings of the northern route, made the higher*
loss risk of the northern route more viable.
The cost lines crossed, and people are willing to take the risk.
The only problem I see, is that the people taking the monetary risk,
and the people taking the "I may not live through this" risk,
are not the same people.

This would be Completely False.
As demonstrated in a most of my posts in this string, the main reason for this is the dramatic "Recent Thawing" (Unrefuted/Unaddressed/Untouched) that Allows them to cut 40% of the distance off the journey.
Similar to the Greenland string.
(you can tell any post is empty right wing hackery when polgara gives it a 'like')

 

[longview]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

Thisd string demonstrates significant recent melting of the last 6 or so years. (not to mention the 50 before that).
This is/remains Unaddressed/Untouched/Unrefuted by you.

So why don't you "let us know" when you have Anything of substance to contribute to this string.
As of now/ever, you are just a partisan cheap-shotter.
100% Insubstantial posts.
(you can tell any post is empty right wing hackery when polgara gives it a 'like')


This would be Completely False.
As demonstrated in a most of my posts in this string, the main reason for this is "Recent Thawing" (Unrefuted/Unaddressed/Untouched) that Allows them to cut 40% of the distance off the journey.
(you can tell any post is empty right wing hackery when polgara gives it a 'like')

Completely False, strong words, but don't think distance is the only thing considered.
There are still risks in taking ships into the arctic.
Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag
They may have been hoping for a 2012 line, but that is unlikely to happen.
At this point the best they can hope for is that they time their passage through
the pass between the ice pack and northern Russia, just right.
This years ice looks like it will be 2 million square Kilometers more than 2012.
I just hope no one dies from taking these risks.

 

[ocean515]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

And What is the above supposed to be Jack?
It's apparently a/yet another wattsupwiththat Link DUMP from someone who does Little but that.

This string is about the ARCTIC so 'any ole climate' horseshoe won't do.
Jack Hays Duhs it again.


EDIT to below Obligatory and Juvenile Last-wording. (he thinks he 'wins' that way)
Jack Hays Never has ANYTHING to say he didn't say in his first Link Dump in the string.
and even those, he Can't excerpt/Doesn't know what's relevant!
JH posts: 100% childish waste of bandwidth.

:shock:

:violin

 

[gslack]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

This string demonstrates significant recent melting of the last 6 or so years. (not to mention the 50 before that).
This is/remains Unaddressed/Untouched/Unrefuted by you.

So why don't you "let us know" when you have Anything of substance to contribute to this string.
As of now/Forever, you just partisan cheap shot.
100% insubstantial posts.
(you can tell any post is empty right wing hackery when polgara gives it a 'like')


This would be Completely False.
As demonstrated in a most of my posts in this string, the main reason for this is the dramatic "Recent Thawing" (Unrefuted/Unaddressed/Untouched) that Allows them to cut 40% of the distance off the journey.
Similar to the Greenland string.
(you can tell any post is empty right wing hackery when polgara gives it a 'like')

No, all that is shown in this thread is you assume an attempt means a given outcome simply because it suits your preconceptions and desired outcome. You don't have anything here to debate.. It's an attempt, and nothing more. When or IF they make it you have a case, but right now it's just a hypothesis..

You want to discuss your perceived "melting" make a thread for it. But your OP was about the article you cited, and that was what I was referring to. Are you changing the topic to actual melting now? If so state as much..

 

[mbig]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

Completely False, strong words, but don't think distance is the Only thing considered.

I didn't say the "only thing", I said "the MAIN reason" and that Remains Completely TRUE.
The dramatic THAW of the last 6 years has, Again, allowed them to cut 40% off the distance of the journey saving time and money. Still Completely TRUE.
So you didn't show anything was even mainly false, much less "completely false".
Blatant and Obtuse Deception attempt using strawman. Epic FAIL.

There are still risks in taking ships into the arctic.
Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis....

Who disagress?
And this shows what exactly?
It only goes to self-impeaching your last post in which you said this journey was avoiding [pirate]... risk.

gslack remains Topically ContentLESS, merely partisanly harrassing, with ocean515 off the deep end.

 

[longview]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

I didn't say the "only thing", I said "the MAIN reason" and that Remains Completely TRUE.
The dramatic THAW of the last 6 years has, Again, allowed them to cut 40% off the distance of the journey saving time and money. Still Completely TRUE.
So you didn't show anything was even mainly false, much less "completely false".
Blatant and Obtuse Deception attempt using strawman. Epic FAIL.

Who disagress?
And this shows what exactly?
It only goes to self-impeaching your last post in which you said this journey was avoiding [pirate]... risk.

gslack remains Topically ContentLESS, merely partisanly harrassing, with ocean515 off the deep end.

I am trying to show that a lot of decisions are weighed is planning a shipping route.
Using the northern route could save the two weeks, it could also cost a ship and it's crew.
The Arctic weather is very unpredictable, and the ice moves around.
This years ice is no where near the minimum from 2012.

 

[mbig]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

I am trying to show that a lot of decisions are weighed is planning a shipping route.
Using the northern route could save the two weeks, it could also cost a ship and it's crew.
The Arctic weather is very unpredictable, and the ice moves around.
This years ice is no where near the minimum from 2012.

NONE of this is News or have I counterclaimed.
It's you who have yet to acknowledge that all this is Made Possible by Persistent (50 years) and Recent WARMING/Melting.

 

[longview]

Re: Ships Travel Arctic From China to Europe: 393 2013, Up from 46 Last year, 4 in 20

NONE of this is News or have I counterclaimed.
It's you who have yet to acknowledge that all this is Made Possible by Persistent (50 years) and Recent WARMING/Melting.

The current warming trend is more like 140 years, and it will improve the odds of a non ice class ship
taking the northern route. There will still be only a narrow time window when there
will be open water near Bolshvik Island.
If the ship gets stuck in the Ice, they may be able to save it, but any profit would be lost.