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Shattering the myth of Vladimir Putin as a strategic genius

Rogue Valley

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Shattering the myth of Vladimir Putin as a strategic genius

2/24/22
There is a myth, in wide circulation throughout the Western world, that Vladimir Putin is a strategic mastermind - a geopolitical genius more astute than Clausewitz, more subtle than Sun Tzu and more audacious than Napoleon. Like most myths, however, this one is more fantasy than fact. Putin is by no conceivable definition of the term a strategic genius; in fact, quite the opposite. Even a cursory survey of his record clearly reveals that the Russian leader is something of a strategic fool. A review of Putin's mishandling of the ongoing Ukraine crisis will be sufficient to illustrate the basic point. To begin with, we need to bear in mind that it was Putin who needlessly transformed a simmering political conflict with Ukraine into a war. That conflict, itself caused by Putin's blundering efforts to compel Ukraine to join his Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), had become frozen in the aftermath of his failed 2014 effort to permanently halt Ukraine's westward drift. But, in a clumsy attempt to force a permanent solution to his "Ukraine problem," in recent months, Putin deployed a massive military force that could neither be maintained in the field indefinitely nor withdrawn without significant internal and external audience costs.

Now that, all too predictably, neither Ukraine nor NATO has acceded to his demands, he has found himself with no choice but to use the massive military force that he originally thought he could wield bloodlessly to bully his way to victory. These are not the fruits of strategic genius. Even a less-than-average strategic genius would not have amassed forces on Ukraine's border without leaving himself what Sun Tzu, an actual master of strategy, called a "golden bridge" - an off-ramp that in this case would allow him to exit the highway to war without incurring substantial internal and external audience costs. And let's be clear: Putin's war with Ukraine will ultimately redound to Russia's great strategic disadvantage. If Russia attempts to occupy the entire country, it will face the task of pacifying a hostile people with a long history of resisting foreign domination. And if Putin does nothing more than attempt to break the Ukrainian state and its military, the staggering civilian casualties and subsequent refugee crisis will leave Russia a pariah state - one subject to sanctions and condemnations the likes of which it has never before experienced. In sum, Vladimir Putin may be many things - a capable tyrant, a sometime naturalist, a middling hockey player, an avid fisherman. But whatever else he is, and the prevailing mythology notwithstanding, one thing is for certain: He's no strategic genius.


In 2013, the Ukrainian people had had enough of Moscow's empty promises and did not want to join Putin's moribund Eurasian Economic Union (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan).

They instead desired membership in the 27 nation European Union economic powerhouse, and a re-orientation away from Russia's autocratic sphere and towards the democratic West.

A grassroots revolutionary movement sprung up - Euromaidan. Putin ordered Vanukovych to begin shooting protesters in downtown Kyiv. Putin gambled on deadly force and lost Ukraine irreperably.
 
Shattering the myth of Vladimir Putin as a strategic genius




In 2013, the Ukrainian people had had enough of Moscow's empty promises and did not want to join Putin's moribund Eurasian Economic Union (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan).

They instead desired membership in the 27 nation European Union economic powerhouse, and a re-orientation away from Russia's autocratic sphere and towards the democratic West.

A grassroots revolutionary movement sprung up - Euromaidan. Putin ordered Vanukovych to begin shooting protesters in downtown Kyiv. Putin gambled on deadly force and lost Ukraine irreperably.


I started a similar thread in the Military Section. I just do not see how a country of 144 million can take and hold a country of 44 million whose people still have memories of brutal oppression and government after government kowtowing to them. Especially when they only brought 200,000 troops with which to invade.

This seems like a definitional exercise in folly. This is something that a Tsar or Austrian Emperor would have done in the late 18th Century. Marching an army of 200,000 prettily-uniformed musket-armed soldiers with horses and cannons in tow. And they would have lost.
 
What kind of idiot starts a needless war? This is all because of his sagging approval polling at home. A distraction.

He had nothing to fear from the west. There has been no offensive build up in the west. Merely defensive posturing because of threats like Putin.

The west has repeatedly tried to negotiate with Putin. He is the one who stopped talking and began shooting. Putin is the aggressor.
 
If the protests of the Russian people continue and swell, there may be a reckoning.
 
If the protests of the Russian people continue and swell, there may be a reckoning.

I do hope so. I do not think most Russians would be happy or proud that their beloved son conscripted out of high school came home in a body bag or as a vegetative armless, legless invalid who they have to care for for the rest of their lives just to install a Russian-friendly government in Ukraine.
 
@Rogue Valley

You seem to be well versed on this part of the world; has Putin’s demeanor changed in your opinion? There have been reports that he doesn’t appear stable compared to years past.
 
**** it. Call his bluff. Offer Ukraine NATO membership now.
Who are you suggesting do that?
It isn't that simple. There are a lot of criteria in the NATO charter that have to be met before anyone can become a member. You don't just mail out an invitation with an RSVP. There's already a short list of other countries.
 
Who are you suggesting do that?
It isn't that simple. There are a lot of criteria in the NATO charter that have to be met before anyone can become a member. You don't just mail out an invitation with an RSVP. There's already a short list of other countries.
You understand, I hope, that it would be a political gesture, since Russia already invaded. Not a process that Brussels would fast-track in a pique of gamesmanship.
 

Shattering the myth of Vladimir Putin as a strategic genius​



Other than Trump - and perhaps a handful of his mindless cult devotees - does anybody really believe that Vlad is a strategic genius? I suspect it will take quite a few more empty heads than that to create a "myth".
 
I started a similar thread in the Military Section. I just do not see how a country of 144 million can take and hold a country of 44 million whose people still have memories of brutal oppression and government after government kowtowing to them. Especially when they only brought 200,000 troops with which to invade.

This seems like a definitional exercise in folly. This is something that a Tsar or Austrian Emperor would have done in the late 18th Century. Marching an army of 200,000 prettily-uniformed musket-armed soldiers with horses and cannons in tow. And they would have lost.
Putin is probably more like a Tsar than a soviet guy.
 
I hear he has Parkinson's, and that can lead to dementia. So, if that's true then he could be impaired.
I do think some of his old timer pals in there and him want their dying wish of a united Russia before they kick the bucket. If he's going down he doesn't have a lot to lose, and I doubt he cares about any Russian citizens future.

It must be rough blowing up a country where you're relatives lives. Russians have kids going to university there, parents there, aunts, uncles. I don't see the people of Russia wanting this to happen.
 
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