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Senate Update: Democrats 50, Republicans 38

According to the most recent state-by-state surveys, Democrats have hit the 50-vote mark through July 31st. I suspect that when polling comes on for Oregon and California that this number will go to 52.


However, there are a few precautions, so don't celebrate just yet if you are a Democrat:
#1: The Democratic lead in Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina is tenuous. Right now, Rep. Ted Budd (R-NC), who is running for Senate, is not running very many ads in the state. I suspect that North Carolina might flip back to Republican, making the Democrats' number go to 51.
#2: I suspect that Wisconsin will get a little bluer over time due to Sen. Ron Johnson's involvement in the Jan. 6th coup/takeover/conspiracy/government disruption/Trump Rebellion. It is too soon to tell if this effect will dissipate as we get closer. Sometimes, there is a "rubber band effect" near the end of the election where it swings back in the other direction.
#3: Raphael Warnock's (D-GA) numbers are razor-thin. At one point, he was over +5, a solid lead, but that is now eroding. I suspect that we might not know on election day how close this is.
#4: New Hampshire is also not a strong as one would expect for the Democrats. I suspect this will get to a solid blue, but it is too soon to tell.
#5: Finally, if we look at the overall analysis, as of right now, the maximum 52 Senators for the Democrats is very tenuous. The Republicans' seats are solid right now, while there are four seats that could be flipped away from the Democrats. As such, if the election was held right now, we can assume from the polling numbers that Democrats can win between 48 and 52 seats. If all four seats are taken back, the Republicans will take the Senate.

If I was devising a strategy for the Republicans in the Senate, the majority of their concentrated efforts should be split between NH, NC, GA, and WI. They can still take the Senate, but they would have to flip four seats. It looks daunting, but they said Trump couldn't do a similar run in 2020, and he did.
 

PoliSciPulse

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They need to flip three of the four Senate seats I meant.
 

multivita-man

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This sums up the GOP's antiabortion efforts as it relates to the Senate:

 

tacomancer

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52 would be better. Then Manchin's and Sinema's shenanigans will be less disruptive.
 

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I'm watching the Senate races quite closely and there has been a definite move to the positive side for the Dems since early to mid-July. I'm noticing too that Biden is ticking up slightly and that the generic vote has gone from +2 GOP to +2 Dems. Too early to tell but I am hopeful that the string of significant legislative wins, the nomination of Trumpers by the right and the abortion issue combined may move State level elections towards the Dems. If inflation would just settle down the midterms may not be as bad as I had thought they would be a month ago.
 

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According to the most recent state-by-state surveys, Democrats have hit the 50-vote mark through July 31st. I suspect that when polling comes on for Oregon and California that this number will go to 52.


However, there are a few precautions, so don't celebrate just yet if you are a Democrat:
#1: The Democratic lead in Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina is tenuous. Right now, Rep. Ted Budd (R-NC), who is running for Senate, is not running very many ads in the state. I suspect that North Carolina might flip back to Republican, making the Democrats' number go to 51.
#2: I suspect that Wisconsin will get a little bluer over time due to Sen. Ron Johnson's involvement in the Jan. 6th coup/takeover/conspiracy/government disruption/Trump Rebellion. It is too soon to tell if this effect will dissipate as we get closer. Sometimes, there is a "rubber band effect" near the end of the election where it swings back in the other direction.
#3: Raphael Warnock's (D-GA) numbers are razor-thin. At one point, he was over +5, a solid lead, but that is now eroding. I suspect that we might not know on election day how close this is.
#4: New Hampshire is also not a strong as one would expect for the Democrats. I suspect this will get to a solid blue, but it is too soon to tell.
#5: Finally, if we look at the overall analysis, as of right now, the maximum 52 Senators for the Democrats is very tenuous. The Republicans' seats are solid right now, while there are four seats that could be flipped away from the Democrats. As such, if the election was held right now, we can assume from the polling numbers that Democrats can win between 48 and 52 seats. If all four seats are taken back, the Republicans will take the Senate.

If I was devising a strategy for the Republicans in the Senate, the majority of their concentrated efforts should be split between NH, NC, GA, and WI. They can still take the Senate, but they would have to flip four seats. It looks daunting, but they said Trump couldn't do a similar run in 2020, and he did.
I predicted that the Dems will pick up 2 Senate Seats, I will stand by that. Of course the House will go to the GOP, but not by the margins hoped for by Conservatives. The abortion issue has energized voters, as I predicted.
 

911Sparky

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I am sure dems will pick up at least 2 Senate seats. I see Ryan beating JD Vance in Ohio, Fetterman beating Oz in Pennsylvania, and Johnson losing in Wisconsin.
Not as sure about Johnson, but sure enough to make this prediction. I was worried about Kelly in Az. but since R's nominated a whackjob I'm sure Kelly is safe.
If Warnock can hold onto Ga. I see a 3 seat pickup. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
 

Tender Branson

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I am sure dems will pick up at least 2 Senate seats. I see Ryan beating JD Vance in Ohio, Fetterman beating Oz in Pennsylvania, and Johnson losing in Wisconsin.
Not as sure about Johnson, but sure enough to make this prediction. I was worried about Kelly in Az. but since R's nominated a whackjob I'm sure Kelly is safe.
If Warnock can hold onto Ga. I see a 3 seat pickup. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Yeah, the Senate landscape is really not that bad for Dems.

The Republican candidates in PA, OH and WI are terrible.

I think all 3 of those can be won.

AZ and GA can be held by Democrats, because the R candidates there are horrible as well.

Nevada (D) is very concerning, but can be held. If not, and it is lost, there is another pickup opportunity in NC with Beasley.
 

911Sparky

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Yeah, the Senate landscape is really not that bad for Dems.

The Republican candidates in PA, OH and WI are terrible.

I think all 3 of those can be won.

AZ and GA can be held by Democrats, because the R candidates there are horrible as well.

Nevada (D) is very concerning, but can be held. If not, and it is lost, there is another pickup opportunity in NC with Beasley.
Ga, race has tightened recently, I don't know how since the R's fielded a candidate who is barely coherent. In Nevada Cortez-Masto has held a small but consistent lead, I think she will hold on. NC I'm less confident, but hopeful.
 

Tender Branson

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Ga, race has tightened recently, I don't know how since the R's fielded a candidate who is barely coherent. In Nevada Cortez-Masto has held a small but consistent lead, I think she will hold on. NC I'm less confident, but hopeful.

Georgia actually hasn't tightened.

In fact, Republican Walker was leading by a few points until June.

Then, Sen. Warnock has started to lead and is now ca. 5% ahead.
 

Credence

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I am sure dems will pick up at least 2 Senate seats. I see Ryan beating JD Vance in Ohio, Fetterman beating Oz in Pennsylvania, and Johnson losing in Wisconsin.
Not as sure about Johnson, but sure enough to make this prediction. I was worried about Kelly in Az. but since R's nominated a whackjob I'm sure Kelly is safe.
If Warnock can hold onto Ga. I see a 3 seat pickup. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

All I can say is I hope so. With the House predicted to be GQP majority, the Senate needs to be Dem just to stop some of these cray crays

I have never been so pro-Dem as I have been for the past 6 years. I have voted for both parties throughout but no more
 

911Sparky

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All I can say is I hope so. With the House predicted to be GQP majority, the Senate needs to be Dem just to stop some of these cray crays

I have never been so pro-Dem as I have been for the past 6 years. I have voted for both parties throughout but no more
Same here, I won't consider voting for a republican until they get rid of most of the crazies.
 

911Sparky

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Georgia actually hasn't tightened.

In fact, Republican Walker was leading by a few points until June.

Then, Sen. Warnock has started to lead and is now ca. 5% ahead.
I saw a poll a few days ago that showed them within 2 points, I can't remember who the pollster was, might have been one who favored republicans.
We need to hold the Ga. seat not only to keep a majority, but to keep the election deniers from winning. It's the only way they will quit nominating those losers.
 

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I saw a poll a few days ago that showed them within 2 points, I can't remember who the pollster was, might have been one who favored republicans.
We need to hold the Ga. seat not only to keep a majority, but to keep the election deniers from winning. It's the only way they will quit nominating those losers.
Nobody but nobody can get the vote out like Abrams. I don't think she will win against Kemp but I do think voter turnout will be huge and that favours Warnock.
 
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