Senate prediction update: 4 states move left; tx moves right

As an update to my last posting:

I have moved the following,

PENNSYLVANIA - Casey - Likely Dem to Safe Dem
OHIO - Brown - Lean Dem to Likely Dem
WISCONSIN - Baldwin - Lean Dem to Likely Dem
WEST VIRGINIA - Manchin - Tossup to Leans Dem
TEXAS - Cruz - Lean Rep to Likely Rep

The main reason for shifts in these races are due to an abundance of new polling. PA's race shows incumbent Bob Casey easily defeating Lou Barletta by double digit margins. The same can be said about Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin. WV's Joe Manchin has been performing better in polls than I would have thought (considering the state was Trump's largest margin of victory in the country in 2016), so that race moves to Leans Dem.

Texas Democrats were encouraged after their candidate Beto O'Rourke saw major fundraising advantages and appeared to close in on Ted Cruz. However, that time has passed and Mr. Cruz has consistently led by about 9 percentage points. I am moving this to Likely Rep.

------------Next update to come soon.------------- Watch for the following races...
ARIZONA - Flake (Open) - I am likely to move this race in favor of the Democrats soon. I just would like to see another poll or two to prove my point, but I believe Kyrsten Sinema is possibly looking at a huge lead... possible move to Lean Dem in coming weeks.

MINNESOTA (Special) - Smith - No major candidates have surfaced to take on appointed Democratic Sen. Tina Smith. With the help of the regularly scheduled election of her colleague Amy Klobuchar, I think she should have an easy victory... possible move to Safe Dem in coming weeks.

SQEAKERS-(adjusted final percents)- FL (Nelson +1.2), MO (McCaskill +0.7), TN (Tie/Bredesen +0.2), ND (Heitkamp +0.8), IN (Braun +0.9)

 

[<alt>doxygen]

How do you see the FL senate race? Scott has had a lot of attack adds running for a few months now, and I've seen nothing from the Nelson side.

Caveat : I watch little TV, and what I do 'watch' is the monitors at the gym so the channels are fixed and limited.

 

[<alt>doxygen]

I should have said, "how do you see the senate race in FL playing out over time". Not sure if you are interested in projecting into the future. This is a big state, and I live in a rather red part of it, but my guess now is Scott will pull it out.

 

[pilot16]

How do you see the FL senate race? Scott has had a lot of attack adds running for a few months now, and I've seen nothing from the Nelson side.

Caveat : I watch little TV, and what I do 'watch' is the monitors at the gym so the channels are fixed and limited.

Scott is winning the Latino vote by a lot. Heitkamp in ND is also behind according to RCP and Hawley in MO just polled above McCaskill for the first time in MO. Still all up in the air at this point. I think the GOP will lose 2 or 3 senate seats but possibly pick up at least the same amount.

https://www.politico.com/states/flo...south-florida-hispanics-new-poll-finds-505852

 

[bbert1994]

Update to answer your questions. I use statistical analysis based on past elections, the demographics, and the national voting trend. For Florida, it is a bit tricky... Scott barely won two governor races in years that the GOP did strong (2010 & 2014). Adding to the fact, both Democratic challengers appeared to be weak. (Sink in 2010 had a rather low profile, and Crist in 2014 had name recognition, but some Democrats were not inclined to vote for him for his GOP past). Neither race did he win above 50 percent of the vote. Nelson on the other side has won by large margins and is a bit more moderate than the national Democratic Party is. Considering the national environment is leaning in favor of the Democrats, FL voting index for 2018 gets a D+3.4. I adjusted the senate race and gave Scott the benefit of the doubt and shaved off a point for him (assuming things trend better for him.) Heavy Latino vote and younger voters will be key for Nelson, and he appears to be on par to win them. Mathematically, I just do not see the numbers for Scott.

To add to the second response regarding the poll showing S. Florida Hispanics in his favor is an outlier. Of the six FL senate polls, Nelson leads by an average of 12-16 points among that group. In addition, Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. who conducted the poll has a massive 5.2 percentage point margin of error, so I cannot say that their accuracy is on par with more sophisticated pollsters. They also have an average bias of 1 point in favor of the GOP in most polls, according to FiveThirtyEight's calculus.

Democrats are likely to gain a net of 2-3 senate seats, but is possible they could lose the same number. ND's Heitkamp and IN's Donnelly appear to have the national environment at their back, but they are both likely to be squeakers.