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Seattle's Wage Hike Not Working

Moderate Right

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chromium

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You're right, shoulda been $30/hr-
 

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I don't think raising the minimum wage is the only or best answer to low or stagnant wages, but the article skims over things a little too much for me. From the article:

"To begin with, the economists said, some of the workers weren't helped at all, since their pay would have likely gone up anyway with experience and tenure on the job."
If we are talking about minimum wage jobs the amount of tenure needed to make $11 bucks an hour would be outstanding. I don't buy that some workers would see that big of a pay bump to their wage solely based on tenure.

"Although workers were earning more, fewer of them had a job than would have without an increase," the Post said. "Those who did work had fewer hours than they would have without the wage hike."
I accept that there is obviously going to be some job loss with any raise in wage, but the fewer hours thing is annoying. Notice it isn't claiming that they get paid less overall, but just that they work less. I see that as a benefit.

A year or two from now the studies on Seattle will be more interesting, but I haven't seen anything too damning yet.
 

Captain Adverse

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The Bitter Lesson From Seattle's Minimum Wage Hike | Stock News & Stock Market Analysis - IBD

Minimum Wage Study: Effects of Seattle wage hike modest, may be overshadowed by strong economy | UW Today

Liberals just fail to comprehend that their liberal policies often not only don't do well, but backfire many times. And when they don't work their solution is usually to do more of the same.

I wonder when people are going to realize, and I mean really recognize, that wages like most anything else are dependent on supply and demand.

If an employer seeks workers but the supply of available applicants is low...wages will be increased to a level that can serve to attract them.

If an employer seeks workers but the supply of available applicants is high...wages can be kept to a minimum.

Our society has a large and growing supply of workers seeking opportunities in either a level, or shrinking market of job opportunities.

In that kind of job market, all increased minimum wage levels do is increase employer costs. They will balance the equation by reducing staff, or adding more part-timers and reducing hours.

If our leaders were really concerned with improving the employment situation they would do well to figure out a way to increase the job market or reduce the population pressure.
 
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Master PO

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instead of increasing wages, WHY doesn't the government make a dollar WORTH a dollar, so it has more buying power.

answer: because they love to create money, which keeps the dollar worth about 4 cents
 

Mycroft

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Notice it isn't claiming that they get paid less overall, but just that they work less. I see that as a benefit.

You seem to not understand the concept, so I'll help you out.

$10/hr times 8 hr/day times 5 days a week = $400

$15/hr times 4 hr/day times 5 days a week = $300

I'm thinking the person who used to get paid $10/hr for $400/week won't see it as a benefit if he "works less", but gets paid $100 less.
 

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You seem to not understand the concept, so I'll help you out.

$10/hr times 8 hr/day times 5 days a week = $400

$15/hr times 4 hr/day times 5 days a week = $300

I'm thinking the person who used to get paid $10/hr for $400/week won't see it as a benefit if he "works less", but gets paid $100 less.
Oh thanks. Where did it mention the numbers you typed up?
 

eohrnberger

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The Bitter Lesson From Seattle's Minimum Wage Hike | Stock News & Stock Market Analysis - IBD

Minimum Wage Study: Effects of Seattle wage hike modest, may be overshadowed by strong economy | UW Today

Liberals just fail to comprehend that their liberal policies often not only don't do well, but backfire many times. And when they don't work their solution is usually to do more of the same.

Only as predicted by most any sane person with any comprehension of the market. I guess this excludes Seattle's city leaders, as well as those on the left end of the spectrum.

<*sigh*>

Should have listened to those in the know, rather than running off half cocked with a government solution, and a poor one at that, and the damage it caused.
 

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Only as predicted by most any sane person with any comprehension of the market. I guess this excludes Seattle's city leaders, as well as those on the left end of the spectrum.

<*sigh*>

Should have listened to those in the know, rather than running off half cocked with a government solution, and a poor one at that, and the damage it caused.


They've still got about $4 per hour to go.
 

Mycroft

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Oh thanks. Where did it mention the numbers you typed up?

Those are hypothetical numbers...but the concept is the same. Here, I'll show you.

The first link mentions numbers of $9.96 increasing to $11.14.

9.96/hr times 8 hr/day times 5 days a week = 398.40

11.15/hr times 4 hr/day times 5 days a week = 223
 

MrPeanut

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Those are hypothetical numbers...but the concept is the same. Here, I'll show you.

The first link mentions numbers of $9.96 increasing to $11.14.

9.96/hr times 8 hr/day times 5 days a week = 398.40

11.15/hr times 4 hr/day times 5 days a week = 223
I didn't see anything in the article about people getting their hours slashed in half.

"Indeed, depending how it's calculated, the economists found that the minimum wage hike that sounded so generous when passed resulted in somewhere between a $5.54 a week raise and a $5.22 a week reduction in pay."

What that quote tells me is that either people earned slightly more or had less hours and earned slightly less. I don't believe that raising the minimum wage is the cure for workers getting paid more, but it doesn't look like destruction so far. It will be interesting to evaluate it as the rest of the increases take place.
 

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I didn't see anything in the article about people getting their hours slashed in half.

"Indeed, depending how it's calculated, the economists found that the minimum wage hike that sounded so generous when passed resulted in somewhere between a $5.54 a week raise and a $5.22 a week reduction in pay."

What that quote tells me is that either people earned slightly more or had less hours and earned slightly less. I don't believe that raising the minimum wage is the cure for workers getting paid more, but it doesn't look like destruction so far. It will be interesting to evaluate it as the rest of the increases take place.

So far...with a bit less than $2 increase. How bad do you think it'll get when they increase it $4 more dollars? Some lucky people will get a raise...other not so lucky people will get their hours cut even more...or lose their job entirely.

Again...the concept is the same. That free time those workers are getting as a result of this government mandate isn't doing them any favors.
 

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The Bitter Lesson From Seattle's Minimum Wage Hike | Stock News & Stock Market Analysis - IBD

Minimum Wage Study: Effects of Seattle wage hike modest, may be overshadowed by strong economy | UW Today

Liberals just fail to comprehend that their liberal policies often not only don't do well, but backfire many times. And when they don't work their solution is usually to do more of the same.

You're right about one thing.

Seattle's minimum wage hike completely failed to destroy Seattle's economy.
 

Visbek

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Liberals just fail to comprehend that their liberal policies often not only don't do well, but backfire many times. And when they don't work their solution is usually to do more of the same.
Uh huh....

“Our report indicates that Seattle’s track record after increasing the minimum wage is neither as negative as some had feared nor as positive as some had hoped.”

There weren't "multiple backfires" in the report. It showed that wages of the affected employees went up, and that employers cut back slightly on hours. There were no indications of increased business failures, or excess inflation, or even a rise in unemployment -- all breathily predicted by detractors. In fact, more businesses opened in Seattle.

Of course, the key takeaway is that these findings are very preliminary; they've only had a few months of data to work with. But hey, don't let that stop you from ignoring all the things you got wrong about the minimum wage hike, and focusing exclusively on one negative element that, uh, you didn't quite get right either. ;)
 

Visbek

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So far...with a bit less than $2 increase. How bad do you think it'll get when they increase it $4 more dollars?
The study explicitly stated: "Our estimates of the impact of the Ordinance on hours per employee more consistently indicate a reduction of roughly one hour per week."

It's going to take years to get to those wages, and businesses with less than 500 employees won't hit that until 2021.

Predicting the results is very difficult, and the study makes no claims about longer-term changes. However, it seems apparent that it won't be anywhere near as disastrous as the detractors routinely exclaim, often without much evidence... or perspective.

In the meantime, we'll have to wait for minimum wage employees to plead to roll back the increases. Do you plan to hold your breath for that one? ;)
 

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You're right about one thing.

Seattle's minimum wage hike completely failed to destroy Seattle's economy.

This is one of my main critiques about you. You don't give a sh!t about poor people. All you give a sh!t about is the economy, supply and demand, etc.. I give you some facts that show liberal policies don't help the little guy and you're response is, "well, it didn't hurt the economy".
 

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Uh huh....

“Our report indicates that Seattle’s track record after increasing the minimum wage is neither as negative as some had feared nor as positive as some had hoped.”

There weren't "multiple backfires" in the report. It showed that wages of the affected employees went up, and that employers cut back slightly on hours. There were no indications of increased business failures, or excess inflation, or even a rise in unemployment -- all breathily predicted by detractors. In fact, more businesses opened in Seattle.

Of course, the key takeaway is that these findings are very preliminary; they've only had a few months of data to work with. But hey, don't let that stop you from ignoring all the things you got wrong about the minimum wage hike, and focusing exclusively on one negative element that, uh, you didn't quite get right either. ;)


The whole point of my post is that these articles and studies have shown that the increased wages has not caused worker's overall wages to go up (because their hours have been cut back) and it has caused higher unemployment, factoring out the growing tech economy, which would have grown anyway without the wage increase. And, we are just at the modest part of the wage increase. It also doesn't account for the fact that Seattle has a higher cost of living than Hope, Arkansas. The negative effects would be more pronounced there and other lower cost of living cities and states than in the higher cost of living cities and states. Again, you guys are more interested in your liberal economic models than you are in helping the poor.
 

Hawkeye10

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THe region was likely already in a slowdown before the wages hit.

The Puget Sound Region has clearly outperformed the nation during the recovery from the Great Recession. Between 2010 and 2015, it added 234,000 jobs. The employment growth rate significantly exceeded the national rate: 2.5 percent per year to 1.7 percent. The regional unemployment rate dropped from 9.6 percent to 4.5 percent, while per capita income rose 22.6 percent. Finally, the region returned to its prerecession employment peak in the third quarter of 2013, three full quarters ahead of the nation.

While the Puget Sound recovery has caught the attention of national media, it is not without its shortcomings. Considering the depth of the Great Recession, the rebound should have been even more robust. The strong growth of the region relative to the nation is due solely to the success of Boeing and Amazon.com, and the current expansion has been highly concentrated in King County.
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No, but we should be alert. Although our current forecast does not call for a recession, it does anticipate a significant slowdown. Assuming that employment of the “Big Three” (Boeing, Microsoft and Amazon) stabilizes within two years — this is the critical presumption — the pace of the Puget Sound economy will decelerate, eventually converging with the national rate. More specifically, we predict that employment growth will slow from 3.2 percent in 2015 to 2.2 percent in 2016 and 1.5 percent in 2017.
2016 Economic Outlook: We’re Slowing Down | Seattle Business Magazine
 

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Anyone who says that you can double wages with no increase in production and not eventually have layoffs does not know how to run a business...or even possess economic common sense.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/44995

Doubling the minimum wage over a very short period of time WILL result in less jobs in America...period.

Not maybe, not possibly...100% certainty.
 

MickeyW

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The Bitter Lesson From Seattle's Minimum Wage Hike | Stock News & Stock Market Analysis - IBD

Minimum Wage Study: Effects of Seattle wage hike modest, may be overshadowed by strong economy | UW Today

Liberals just fail to comprehend that their liberal policies often not only don't do well, but backfire many times. And when they don't work their solution is usually to do more of the same.

Pavlov's dog was a Democrat.

You're right, shoulda been $30/hr-

Should be $5....and many don't even deserve that!
 

MickeyW

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I don't think raising the minimum wage is the only or best answer to low or stagnant wages, but the article skims over things a little too much for me. From the article:

"To begin with, the economists said, some of the workers weren't helped at all, since their pay would have likely gone up anyway with experience and tenure on the job."
If we are talking about minimum wage jobs the amount of tenure needed to make $11 bucks an hour would be outstanding. I don't buy that some workers would see that big of a pay bump to their wage solely based on tenure.

"Although workers were earning more, fewer of them had a job than would have without an increase," the Post said. "Those who did work had fewer hours than they would have without the wage hike."
I accept that there is obviously going to be some job loss with any raise in wage, but the fewer hours thing is annoying. Notice it isn't claiming that they get paid less overall, but just that they work less. I see that as a benefit.

A year or two from now the studies on Seattle will be more interesting, but I haven't seen anything too damning yet.

Yep, we can see how many businesses stay solvent and how much all the increases are to the consumer.

I wonder when people are going to realize, and I mean really recognize, that wages like most anything else are dependent on supply and demand.

If an employer seeks workers but the supply of available applicants is low...wages will be increased to a level that can serve to attract them.

If an employer seeks workers but the supply of available applicants is high...wages can be kept to a minimum.

Our society has a large and growing supply of workers seeking opportunities in either a level, or shrinking market of job opportunities.

In that kind of job market, all increased minimum wage levels do is increase employer costs. They will balance the equation by reducing staff, or adding more part-timers and reducing hours.

If our leaders were really concerned with improving the employment situation they would do well to figure out a way to increase the job market or reduce the population pressure.

You left out what will be passed on to the consumer. I'm one of those consumers that sets a limit on how much I will spend on goods and services. If an establishment exceeds that, I won't go there as often, will spend less when there, or stop going altogether.
If it's a product, I will curtail my spending on that as well.

You seem to not understand the concept, so I'll help you out.

$10/hr times 8 hr/day times 5 days a week = $400

$15/hr times 4 hr/day times 5 days a week = $300

I'm thinking the person who used to get paid $10/hr for $400/week won't see it as a benefit if he "works less", but gets paid $100 less.

Simple math, but too complex for politicians.

Only as predicted by most any sane person with any comprehension of the market. I guess this excludes Seattle's city leaders, as well as those on the left end of the spectrum.

<*sigh*>

Should have listened to those in the know, rather than running off half cocked with a government solution, and a poor one at that, and the damage it caused.

This is just the newest liberal boobie prize for consumers. They do it with gun control and also by legalizing marijuana.

They've still got about $4 per hour to go.

What, to cause most business to move out of Seattle?

Those are hypothetical numbers...but the concept is the same. Here, I'll show you.

The first link mentions numbers of $9.96 increasing to $11.14.

9.96/hr times 8 hr/day times 5 days a week = 398.40

11.15/hr times 4 hr/day times 5 days a week = 223

Any way you cut the cheese, it's still diminishes the whole wheel. More is sometimes..........................less.
 

MickeyW

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Oregon's new law is almost as lame as Seattle. A graduated increase to just under $15 within 3 years. For those rural counties that are poorer or with a smaller labor force, the scale will be lower than say Portland Metro.
 

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The Bitter Lesson From Seattle's Minimum Wage Hike | Stock News & Stock Market Analysis - IBD

Minimum Wage Study: Effects of Seattle wage hike modest, may be overshadowed by strong economy | UW Today

Liberals just fail to comprehend that their liberal policies often not only don't do well, but backfire many times. And when they don't work their solution is usually to do more of the same.

This is a very slanted view of the Jacob report http://evans.uw.edu/sites/default/files/MinWageReport-July2016_Final.pdf . From the report: Seattle economy “boomed” over this period, posting growth rates that “tripled the national average” and “outpaced Seattle’s own robust performance in recent years.” The vast majority of low-wage workers end up with higher earnings. Even if some workers lose some hours of work, their annual income often goes up (which, in fact, is another finding from the study). Higher wages also made reduction in workers requiring SNAP benefits (food stamps).

Trickle down had it's turn and failed to deliver, time to let the money percolate up for a change. Seattle and San Francisco show this much much more equitable results, and increases economic activity.

The report also concludes:We do not find compelling evidence that the minimum wage has caused significant increases in business failure rates. Moreover, if there has been any increase in business closings caused by the Minimum Wage Ordinance, it has been more than offset by an increase in business opening.
 
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