Lots of GOP apologists are seriously engaged in the self comforting indulgence of whistling past the graveyard. Inside that graveyard are two tombstones - monuments if you want to blow this up a bit. One one is chiseled the name of the Republican Party itself. 1854 - 2012. On the other is Sarah Palin, the woman who drove the stake through the heart of the GOP. Some conservative posters here know that right not the GOP is riding higher than they ever thought they could be just two short years ago. Things changed amazingly fast in just 24 months. The pendulum has swung to the right and it moved hard and fast. The same thing - and even worse - could happen in that same span of time and in the direction to the left. Not that the nation will turn left as an ideology but as a practical reaction against Palin and the GOP if they embrace her.
The Republicans have a very real problem. They are a badly divided party when you get out into the grass roots where the actual voters are. This is not evident by examining GOP politicians in Washington. For at least two years the Washington pols have marched in such orchestrated and disciplined lockstep that they would make a crack military unit look sloppy. But out in the sticks where the voters are, sorry, but its one step away from chaos.
That one step is Sarah Palin. If she decides to run for the Republican nomination in 2012, despite what the whistlers here hope, she has as good of a chance as any other person on that stage today. Maybe better. GOP primaries are won by the hard right of the base. If you need proof just look at the raft of GOP winners from this years primary season. I hope the litany of names is not needed as I really hope to never again have to worry about the witch candidate or the guns next time candidate or the guy who adapted the Queen anthem into "we will stomp you". Wait a minute - that guy won. But still a right wing extremist just the same.
If Palin runs, there will be a battle for the two wings of the party, the tea people and the Wall Street establishment wing. It could very well come down to Sarah Palin versus Mitt Romney. Along the way the fight could rip the party into two and leave the losers angry, alienated and willing to sit it out if their fave is not the nominee. That is a real possibility.
But put that aside for the moment and look at either of the two most likely winners, Romney is not exactly the pin up boy for the tea people and in fact is hated by many of them. Then you complicate that with the religious factor and wonder if the born again sector of the party would embrace someone they do not consider as even a Christian. The one man who Wall Street would favor the most is probably the one man who the tea people could reject.
And if Sarah triumphs with the nomination she starts out as a woman with extremely high negatives. You cannot win an election with Independents going against you like they do against Palin. Its just not in the cards. And all the gains of the past month could go flushing down the toilet with Palin.
So you lovers of the GOP on this site, keep whistling and perhaps even whistle a bit louder. Maybe that will comfort you. But know this - in 2012 when my state has its GOP presidential primary, I will be happy to play the trickster and plant a Palin sign in my front yard and march off on primary day and cast a vote for her. Other dems I know will do this also. You will probably see a nationwide effort to do that in states where primaries are open and not closed. And even in closed primary states there is nothing from keeping a dem from putting up a Palin sign or even making a monetary donation to fuel her fires.
Is Palin the only Republican Obama could beat? I have no idea right now until we see the rest of the field. Maybe it would be better for Romney to get the nod and the tea party people get screwed royally by the GOP establishment and the party fractures for good. Maybe that scenario is even better. We will see.
But by all means keep whistling past that graveyard.