Russia's Roadmap Out of the MH17 Crisis

7/17/19

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A more plausible and Machiavellian approach would be quiet overtures to the Netherlands, building on the existing conversation with prime minister Mark Rutte, given that they have led the investigations as most of the victims were Dutch. The Kremlin could uncharacteristically throw itself on their mercy. It was a screw-up, the line would be, and yes, we compounded it by lying and stonewalling. But here we are, five years on, at an impasse. You cannot expect us to admit everything, that would be politically catastrophic, and frankly if that’s the only alternative, you force us to hold the existing line. But we are willing to try and get past this. Without admitting blame, we will pay compensation to the victims’ families. We will guarantee not to put such weapons in the insurgents’ hands again. We may not tell the truth, but we will at least stop peddling lies about the attack. Just try and work with us, to see what can be done. This solution is unlikely to appeal this Kremlin, which seems to make a fetish of the appearance of strength. Likewise, it is also very unlikely the Dutch could or would help the Kremlin extricate itself.

Having failed its Plan A in Ukraine, of stirring up short-lived instability in the Donbass to force Kiev to return to Moscow’s sphere of influence, the Russians have cycled through a series of other policy options, from ‘Novorossiya’ onwards. All have failed. The current situation is hardly their preferred outcome: They never cared about the Donbass, only in using it as a lever on Kiev. From their point of view, the status quo is bearable, but expensive, from the cost of bankrolling the pseudo-states to continuing Western sanctions. It is possible that after Sunday’s Ukrainian parliamentary elections, which will give Moscow a sense of Zelenskiy’s strength and thus freedom of maneuver, the Russians will quietly float the idea of a deal whereby their withdrawal from the Donbass would be traded for a soft recognition of Crimea. Moscow could possibly reach out directly to Kiev, but it would be hard to see such a deal being acceptable — and not leaked within the day. Instead, it might prefer to talk to the Europeans. Many would like some kind of ‘reset’ with Russia, and if they were on board, the calculation might be that they would provide Zelenskiy with the alibi to accept a deal many Ukrainians would resent, allowing him to present it as something foisted on Ukraine by the EU. Ultimately, though, this is probably a thought exercise that is going nowhere, and none of these options are likely to bear fruit. Just like the Crimean and Donbass issues, the MH17 is, sadly, most likely to end up sitting on the desk of whoever eventually becomes the next president of Russia.

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