Russia's Military Buildup Near Ukraine Is an Intimidation Tactic

[Rogue Valley]

Russia's Military Buildup Near Ukraine Is an Intimidation Tactic - The Moscow Times

Opinion | Russia's military posture appears to be primarily coercive and demonstrative in nature.

www.themoscowtimes.com

4/3/21
A recent breakdown of the ceasefire in Ukraine, and escalation in fighting along the line of control, has been followed by what has become a somewhat traditional war of words between Moscow and Kyiv, with each side blaming the other. The rhetorical escalation plays out amidst a significant level of Russian military activity, exercises, and deployments which have caused intense apprehension in Ukraine, U.S., and among NATO allies. Russian forces have shifted several units to Crimea, with visible movements among the Southern Military District, among others, and their intentions are unclear. These actions do not appear to be regular exercises, nor are they necessarily a prelude to an offensive. The activity is exemplary of coercive diplomacy, a Russian effort to use hard military power in an effort to pressure Ukraine politically, and equally signal to Ukraine’s partners in the West. U.S. military leadership, undoubtedly working off of the best intelligence available, raised the alert level at European Command (EUCOM). Meanwhile, the Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff General Milley, called his counterpart, General Valery Gerasimov, reportedly to discuss the issue of Russian troop movements. Fears that the current deployments are in fact preparations for an offensive reflect prudent caution, given Russian intentions are not clear and there would be little warning in the event of a military operation.

Recent announcements of exercises by Southern Military District commander Aleksandr Dvornikov appear to be post hoc justifications, released well after this activity began, and do not explain a host of other movements that have been observed. In short, Russian military explanations for this activity are unconvincing, as it is clearly tied to events in Ukraine. However, the movements are being made in a decidedly visible manner. In other words, they are intended to be seen, and are less indicative of preparation for a covert attack. The standing hypothesis for why Russia might conduct offensive operations are not especially explanative. The most logical explanation is that the ceasefire broke down because Russia seeks to pressure Ukraine, and Western counterparts, over the lack of progress in implementing Minsk II. The breakaway regions are heading towards de facto Russian annexation. Moscow’s goal is not only to intimidate, but to illustrate that the conflict cannot be un-frozen without significant political concessions or compromises. They may be similarly aimed as a signal to the new Biden administration that Russia retains strong coercive power, can escalate at will, and should arguably be much higher on the White House’s foreign policy agenda than currently stated. The challenge is that Moscow’s political calculus in recent years has proven difficult to ascertain.

I think the Russian military movements here are intended to be threatening and coercive in nature, but it is unclear what the Kremlin is seeking. Ukraine president Volodmyr Zelensky recently banned 3 pro-Russia television stations (ZIK/NewsOne/112 Ukraine) from broadcasting for the next 5 years. They are owned by Putin's Grey Cardinal in Ukraine, oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk. Or it could be that the Kremlin wants to force Ukraine to again supply the occupied Crimea with fresh water which is in short supply and must be rationed. Pro-Russian forces in the occupied Donbas region began shelling UA positions about two weeks ago. Within occupied Donbas are ~28,000 rebel forces and ~2,000 Russian soldiers. The UA has ~65,000 soldiers in the Donbas war zone, another ~200,000 on active duty, and 1M in reserve. On March 30 Russia shifted an additional 25 battalion tactical groups toward Ukraine’s borders, on top of the 28 already deployed to those areas. Each Russian battalion tactical group typically includes one mechanized-infantry battalion, along with a tank company and additional rocket artillery (each Russian battalion = ~1,000 soldiers).

 

[OrphanSlug]

What did everyone think would happen? That one side could build up with the other side saying... 'meh.'

 

[Rogue Valley]

What did everyone think would happen? That one side could build up with the other side saying... 'meh.'

Honestly, I don't follow you here.

 

[OrphanSlug]

Honestly, I don't follow you here.

Russia is showing their military build up, Ukraine and NATO are showing their buildup, what did everyone think would happen?

 

[Rogue Valley]

Russia is showing their military build up, Ukraine and NATO are showing their buildup, what did everyone think would happen?

NATO is currently nowhere near Donbas. The closest will be NATO instructors at the Yavoriv Combat Training Center near Lviv in western Ukraine.

The UA always has ~65,000 soldiers assigned to the Donbas Joint Forces Operation (JFO) and Sector M (Mariupol).

Russia is the only nation here with significant troop movements.

 

[Ringo Stalin]

EU foreign ministers will discuss Russia's alleged "military activity around Ukraine," Josep Borrel said.
Perhaps Russia should stop cynically being around Ukraine. Well, or at least stop cynically having your own army on your own territory.
And now for something completely different:
The European Union will help Libya in the fight against coronavirus, but there are conditions, " said the head of the European Council, Charles Michel.
Not just like that, but only if the conditions are met, the EU will give Libya 50 thousand doses of the vaccine.
Meanwhile, 100 thousand doses of Sputnik arrived in Libya from Russia. Without conditions.
The Prime Minister of Libya called the received Russian vaccine "the first drop of rain".
What a cynical regime in Russia! There is not even an elementary concept of democracy. An abnormal country-helping the people of Libya with vaccines, not bombs. It's crazy!
The insidious plan of the russians is in action. This requires additional sanctions from freedom loving people!

 

[Rogue Valley]

Ukraine Assured Of EU's 'Unwavering' Support

EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell has assured the Ukrainian government of "unwavering EU support" in the conflict with Russian-backed separatists in the east of the country.

www.rferl.org