Russia, Ukraine Agree ‘Comprehensive’ Cease-Fire in Donbass

Russia, Ukraine Agree ‘Comprehensive’ Cease-Fire in Donbass

7/18/19
Russia, Ukraine and Europe’s top security body have announced an “indefinite” ceasefire in eastern Ukraine that analysts hail as a substantial step toward ending the five-year conflict. The war between Ukrainian troops and Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine's Donbass region has killed 13,000 people since it broke out in 2014. Sporadic fighting went on despite a ceasefire agreement signed in 2015. The sides have agreed to lay down arms starting midnight this Sunday, July 21, Russia, Ukraine and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) — which collectively make up the Trilateral Contact Group — announced in a statement, with the participation of representatives of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The agreement includes a ban on forward movements and reconnaissance activities, firing and a ban on the placement of heavy weapons near populated areas, among other measures.

The truce could break down at any moment, as it has in the past. Additionally, he said Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s newcomer Volodymyr Zelenskiy were pursuing their own interests ahead of parliamentary elections in Ukraine this Sunday. “Russia’s aim is to increase the results of pro-Russian parties in Ukraine before the Rada elections. [Meanwhile,] Zelenskiy shows Ukrainians that under him there will be more progress than there was under [ex-president Petro] Poroshenko,” von Twickel told The Moscow Times. The Kremlin on Thursday said it hoped the sides of the conflict would abide by the “important” ceasefire agreement.

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This is the first time all involved parties have issued press statements regarding a ceasefire. Yesterday, Kyiv announced that an exchange of political prisoners including Ukrainian film director Oleg Sentsov with Russia would take place very shortly (the statement did not mention POWs, imprisoned Crimean Tatars, or the 24 kidnapped Ukrainian sailors of 25 November 2018). Ukrainian forces began pulling back from the jointly-controlled town of Stanytsia Luhanska two days ago. Since 2014 however, Ukrainian forces have taken back roughly 15 sq. km of occupied territory. Putin's war in the east has resulted in 13,000+ dead, 25,000+ wounded, 1.5 million refugees, and 755 missing.

The Ukraine Parliamentary elections will take place on 21 July 2019. Putin obviously needs to see how well president Volodmyr Zelenskyy's brand new "Servant of the People" political party does. Putin also wants to see how well a political party - "For Life" - led by the pro-Russia Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk makes out. This ceasefire is intended to strengthen Medvedchuk's political power and that of his For Life party in the looming election.

Vladimir Putin is Godfather to Medvedchuk's daughter Daryna (15). His For Life political platform includes tearing up the EU Association Agreement, re-establishing normal relations with Moscow, acknowledging that Crimea is now Russian land, and federating Ukraine (a'la Switzerland - weakening the central government). He has little following beyond some Russian speaking districts in eastern Ukraine. The Kyiv Post characterizes Medvedchuk as a Russian "fifth column".