Russia Tries to Keep Moldova From Getting Close to EU - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Guess this story is mostly unnoticed due to the world attention on the Ukraine.
Nah... the title is just a bit wrong. I've been following this closely since last week then the **** started stirring up.
Moldavia is going to go for the EU. Russia lost everything in a stupid gambit.
I shall detail.
So last year, in order to punish the moldavians for their transgression, comrade Putin decided to ban all imports of wines from Moldavia. Wine industry is pretty big there, they also make some good wines. But the EU has opened a trade agreement with them so now, while Moldavia lost 180mil people market, it gained a much, much richer 500mil people market.
Also, since early last year, Moldavia is no longer dependent on Russian gas. A pipeline from Romania provides all the gas requirements of Moldavia and actually is 10% greater capacity than Moldavia needs.
So putin has no cards to play but 1 wildcard... and that is if he can sway the people with charisma or the politicians with bribes. But he has no advantage... nothing to pressure the govt with, so he must use honey.
But that's for Moldavia as a whole.
Now. What's the problem?
2 problems. 1 Transnistria... a communist relic between Ukraine and Moldavia, ripped from Moldavia by pro-soviet forces in 1991. It has almost no economy and it's like time has stood still since 1990. It's majority is russian ethnics and you have dissidents put in prison like it's in north korea, not europe.
2. Gagauzia. They are, for lack of a better word... orthodox turks. They've been living there since the 1500s when the ottomans, after brutally reclaiming Moldavia, pushed a sort of an... "ethnic stability program"... meaning they moved turks there (they were islamic back then) to secure the south of Moldavia (back then moldavia was all the way to the sea, land now occupied by Ukraine).
They're about 100k or 150k. It depends. Not all "gagauzians" are the same and some identify with moldavians more... but that's a lot of chit chat about nothing.
All in all, Putin hopes to make for another "crimea" scenario where pro-russian people with no badges or ID take the public buildings there and push for a pro-russian union or an independence from Moldavia and Russia moves in for 'humanitarian peacekeeping' reasons. Or they don't claim that they move in at all but by miracle, just like in crimea, 30k soldiers with tanks and helicopters and amored vehicles, all without any markings, appear. It's magic!