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Russia in Review: Russia Poised to Escalate Ukraine Campaign

Rogue Valley

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Institute for the Study of War | Russia in Review: Russia Poised to Escalate Ukraine Campaign

ISW%2BCTP%2BReport%2B-%2BRussia%2BGF%2BPosture.png


12/11/2018
Author: Catherine Harris, Mason Clark, and Nicole Geis with the ISW Research Team

Key Takeaway: Russia will likely escalate militarily against Ukraine imminently. Russia is setting military conditions to prepare its forces for open conflict with Ukraine. Russia is already creating the pretext to escalate by circulating the false narrative that Ukraine and the West are preparing imminent attacks, including a chemical weapons attack, in Eastern Ukraine. Russia may fabricate evidence of a chemical weapons attack – or may itself conduct a chemical weapons attack -- near Russia-backed areas of Ukraine to create chaos, justify the overt involvement of the Russian Armed Forces, and set conditions for future military operations. NATO’s inaction following Russia’s escalation in the Sea of Azov is likely emboldening Putin to continue challenging the West in Ukraine. NATO must reassess the threat that Russia poses to European security and the rules-based international order and respond decisively to deter an increasingly likely Russian military escalation in Ukraine itself.

For the military inclined. ISW Abstract on how Russia is poised (Ground/Air/Sea) to strike against Ukraine and various Russian provocation scenarios. (with footnotes)
 

Litwin

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he CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program is pleased to invite you to a discussion with Dr. Phillip Karber, President of the Potomac Foundation, a defense and foreign policy think-tank. Dr. Karber, who is also a former DOD official and veteran defense analyst, will discuss Russia's "hybrid warfare" campaign in eastern Ukraine. Dr. Karber has traveled repeatedly to eastern Ukraine during the present conflict, and has spoken first-hand with a number of the participants. Dr. Karber will draw on these discussions to elaborate on the techniques of Russian hybrid warfare, evaluate their effectiveness, and explore their implications for both Ukraine and the West.
 

Westphalian

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RV and Litwin ............ I can't take either of you seriously until you can sort out whether:

1. Russia is pathetically weak, and vulnerable to Litwin's likely victorious charge into the heart of Moscow in a Lithuanian Army light armored vehicle.


2. Russia is a global giant capable of influencing elections in the US, UK and everywhere, and invading Ukraine and the whole of Europe.



This is a category 2 thread, but the form is also littered with category 1 threads.

Which is it?
 

Westphalian

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Russia is great at bullying her weaker neighbors. Not so great at bullying the United States.

Oh, the irony.

Because the US never bullies anyone does it? I mean, bombing a defenceless Serbia for 60 days - that wasn't bullying? Threatening to invade it unless it ceded part of its own territory to Muslim human body part traffickers - definitely not bullying.

The treatment of Serbia was an egregious act of stupidity which set a most unfortunate precedent in Europe.
 
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