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Russia 'has gone all in': Does Putin have a way out of his war in Ukraine?

Rogue Valley

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Russia 'has gone all in': Does Putin have a way out of his war in Ukraine?

iu


3.8.22
Ukraine is still standing. That may be a surprise to Russia as its invasion grinds toward a third destructive week. Not only has it seemingly underestimated its neighbor's resolve, but now its ability to wage — let alone win — a prolonged conflict has come into question. Between the stiffer-than-expected Ukrainian resistance, Russia's early military woes and the expansive penalties that have roiled Moscow's economy, could President Vladimir Putin look for an early offramp to end the war? Ukrainian officials and Russia experts did not express much optimism. "Maybe there's more happening there than meets the eye, but the Kremlin has gone all in on this invasion — a major war of a kind Russia has not fought since 1945," said Michael Kimmage, who joined the State Department in 2014 to focus on Ukraine-Russia issues and is now chair of the history department at the Catholic University of America. "Putin has bet his presidency on this venture, so either he will get major concessions from the Ukrainians or just keep on fighting," Kimmage said. Experts said Putin entered the conflict with some very clear political goals: push back against NATO, topple the Ukrainian government and install a new regime more sympathetic to the Kremlin.

To do that, Russia hoped to move in with a swift military victory before the West could react. Now that it has become a protracted fight, Moscow appears to be retooling its efforts: The quick-moving ground offensive is turning into a devastating aerial assault. "It is now an air war," said Oleksandr Danylyuk, the former secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council who is now helping organize the territorial defense on the front lines in Kyiv. "If they wanted to take over Ukraine, they know now they cannot manage it," he added over the phone. "When I look at their behavior, they don't care about this at all. They cannot occupy this country, so now they will try to destroy it." Russian forces are not occupying much territory in Ukraine, with the focus instead apparently aimed at encircling or leveling cities. Kherson, Mariupol, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv have seen intense shelling, with the destruction only growing as the war continues. Thus far it seems to have only served to embolden Ukrainian resistance, rather than convince it to give in. "The challenge is this," the spokesperson said, "Putin continues to press this aggression, and that is why we are concerned this could go on for some time." "I don't see a way out right now," Boulegue said. "This is going to be a war of attrition, a very long conflict that will leave Ukraine and European security scarred for decades."


In for a penny, in for a pound. Putin has invested far too much political/financial/military capital into his Ukraine invasion to now take an expediant off-ramp.

Either he occupies all of Ukraine and hangs its leadership, or he will endeavor to destroy all of Ukraine. Perhaps the only entity able to end this insanity now is the Russian people.
 

MamboDervish

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In for a penny, in for a pound. Putin has invested far too much political/financial/military capital into his Ukraine invasion to now take an expediant off-ramp.

Either he occupies all of Ukraine and hangs its leadership, or he will endeavor to destroy all of Ukraine. Perhaps the only entity able to end this insanity now is the Russian people.
Not necessarily. The great thing about Putin's position - absolute uncontested power - is that he can declare victory, and completely withdraw on a whim, with no consequence to his power at all. Or he can pull back into easily defensible positions within Ukraine, from which the Ukrainian forces could not oust his superior numbers and technology. Putin has options.

But I think it is the job of "the west" to persist in making his tenure in Ukraine too expensive for him to want to endure. While it is early yet, I think we've seen at least some indications that the task of kicking him out is an achievable goal. Time will tell.
 

ChickenTendies

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Ukrainian surrender is the reasonable off-ramp?
OK, sounds like Putin.
Obviously this wont be the agreed upon proposal but it would involve the recognizing of Donetsk and Luhansk, the formal absorption of Crimea into Russia as well as post-WW2 Japan style military restrictions.
 

Mach

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Obviously this wont be the agreed upon proposal but it would involve the recognizing of Donetsk and Luhansk, the formal absorption of Crimea into Russia as well as post-WW2 Japan style military restrictions.

Japan attacked the U.S, declared war on the U.S. They lost that war, of course they had to make concessions.
Ukraine was invaded unjustly by Putin; why would they have to make Japan-like concessions?
They would be restricted from joining NATO. That's a non-starter.

Of course Ukraine surrendering would be an off-ramp for Putin. Ukraine thinks that's a stupid off-ramp.
Up to Ukraine of they want to give in to Russian-demands, and it will have long term consequences either way.
 

Chomsky

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Not necessarily. The great thing about Putin's position - absolute uncontested power - is that he can declare victory, and completely withdraw on a whim, with no consequence to his power at all. Or he can pull back into easily defensible positions within Ukraine, from which the Ukrainian forces could not oust his superior numbers and technology. Putin has options.

But I think it is the job of "the west" to persist in making his tenure in Ukraine too expensive for him to want to endure. While it is early yet, I think we've seen at least some indications that the task of kicking him out is an achievable goal. Time will tell.

Unfortunately though, Putin's military is indeed making slow, but steady progress, for the last several days in quite a few areas of Ukraine. And the areas he's gaining enable supply routes.

I think it's possible Putin will be at this for a long bloody time. He will not likely prevail, but I think he can keep it up for a long time.
 

Antiwar

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A two-week war is all-in?
 

Chomsky

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Obviously this wont be the agreed upon proposal but it would involve the recognizing of Donetsk and Luhansk, the formal absorption of Crimea into Russia as well as post-WW2 Japan style military restrictions.

Your hypothesis, in my mind, would be about the best that Ukraine and the West could hope for.
 

oneworld2

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If both sides were serious about ending the war this would be the off ramp.


The Minsk2 was the best option imo

Zelensky found himself with a poisoned chalice

He tried to make a move for some slight negotiations over the situation in the Donbas and was met with a mass mob of rightwing uber nationalists at his doorstep and, for his own safety, decided that wasn't a possibility.

IMO he has been caught between being a US patsy for a Western poking of Russia and being tied by the rightwing nationalist that seek no negotiated solution on lines of Minsk2
 

oneworld2

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Russia 'has gone all in': Does Putin have a way out of his war in Ukraine?

iu





In for a penny, in for a pound. Putin has invested far too much political/financial/military capital into his Ukraine invasion to now take an expediant off-ramp.

Either he occupies all of Ukraine and hangs its leadership, or he will endeavor to destroy all of Ukraine. Perhaps the only entity able to end this insanity now is the Russian people.


Nah, he's not stupid enough imo to want a long and costly long term occupation of Ukraine. As Mambo said, he has more options than Zelensky has
 

oneworld2

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Obviously this wont be the agreed upon proposal but it would involve the recognizing of Donetsk and Luhansk, the formal absorption of Crimea into Russia as well as post-WW2 Japan style military restrictions.


I think that NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia should also be taken off the table and a neutral status adopted under a security deal for both countries
 

oneworld2

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Americans have never embraced capitulation and subordination for the sake of ending a war, why would Zelenskyy and Ukraine?

Americans live in about as safe a spot as can be granted by geography AND they have by far the most powerful military in the world. To compare them to Ukrainians, or the situation they are in to Americans. is pretty ridiculous imo

Minsk2 was the best deal and had the most support but because of the far right influence in Ukrainian politics blocked it ALL Ukrainians have been suffering since 2015 for pretty much nothing
 

OrphanSlug

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No, there is no exit ramp. Evidence, mentality, and even history suggests Putin finds a way to win or we see a regime change. And Putin knows that.
 

oneworld2

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Japan attacked the U.S, declared war on the U.S. They lost that war, of course they had to make concessions.
Ukraine was invaded unjustly by Putin; why would they have to make Japan-like concessions?
They would be restricted from joining NATO. That's a non-starter.

Of course Ukraine surrendering would be an off-ramp for Putin. Ukraine thinks that's a stupid off-ramp.
Up to Ukraine of they want to give in to Russian-demands, and it will have long term consequences either way.

NATO membership should be off the table and be supported by everyone imo. The thing outlived its positive value when the USSR split up and should have been disbanded and a new arrangement made that included Russia. Since then it has just become the bullying arm of the West but on a global scale. It's expansion has led us all, and was always going to lead us all, to this point .

I'm beginning to wonder whether you really don't care about how many people die or are maimed atall, or if this drags on and on for years, it seems like toppling Putin/hurting Putin trumps all considerations for you. You speak as though Ukraine has been a solid undivided entity and everyone wants the war to continue. I would say that the right wing fanatics should be the ones to be taken out of the discussion seeing as they are the ones that have been blocking a negotiated settlement . Even Zelensky himself has found out this to his cost
 

Mach

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. The thing outlived its positive value
Sounds like a Russian thing to say. Members of NATO seem to like it just fine.
I'm beginning to wonder whether you really don't care about how many people die or are maimed atall, or if this drags on and on for years,
Stop attacking me personally. I realize your debate arguments are so weak that you are left with few options, but I can assure you that silence would be more gracious of you.

Putin invades Ukraine and starts killing indiscriminately, you blame me for supporting Ukraine? You make the most absurd and inappropriate claims.
 

oneworld2

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Sounds like a Russian thing to say. Members of NATO seem to like it just fine.

Stop attacking me personally. I realize your debate arguments are so weak that you are left with few options, but I can assure you that silence would be more gracious of you.

Putin invades Ukraine and starts killing indiscriminately, you blame me for supporting Ukraine? You make the most absurd and inappropriate claims.

Snipping my posts so you don't have to reply to the inconvenient fatcs they include? lols

They would like any security agreement just fine, one that could have and should have included Russia, Having you Americans interferring from thousands of miles away with your anti Russian hysteria hasn't helped one iota imo

NATO should have been disbanded and a new Russian inclusive one replace it

My arguments aren't weak at all. If they were you wouldn't be snipping out the most relevant parts. Your request for " silence" is rejected btw

I support Ukraine and Ukrainian rights to self defence, rid themselves of Russian occupation. I have never said otherwise and you will never be able to quote me saying otherwise. I refer to the war as a crime/illegal etc etc but you just don't want to acknowledge any of that for obvious reasons. So your charge that I " blame you for supporting Ukraine" is just typical emotionally driven nonsense

What I do though is to try to see this conflict in a more realistic and accurate way. For you there is a Ukraine that is and has been undivided. A people all under one banner united in their war for freedom from Russian control. That's about as wrong as you can be but the populists here think that to mention it or any other inconvenient facts/truths is somehow anti Ukraine

You all sound like George W Bush " you are either with us or you are with the terrorists" and that's a bs argument but one you don't seem to be able to extricate yourself from
 

Mach

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NATO should have been disbanded and a new Russian inclusive one replace it
You claimed this already. Yep, still absurd and thoroughly pro-Russian/bad guy.

My arguments aren't weak at all. If they were you wouldn't be snipping out the most relevant parts. Your request for " silence" is rejected btw
As I told you before, you spew so much nonsense that I believe you are trying to gas light these issues with verbal diarrhea. One doesn't need to chase all your rabbit trails to their inevitable dead-ends, that would be falling for your trolling. They are scanned for relevance, and ignored as appropriate.

What I do though is to try to see this conflict in a more realistic and accurate way. For you there is a Ukraine that is and has been undivided.
That's false. Stop making stuff up about me.
A people all under one banner united in their war for freedom from Russian control.
141 countries condemning it, including you. 5 opposing it. It is what it is...fact.

You all sound like George W Bush " you are either with us or you are with the terrorists" and that's a bs argument but one you don't seem to be able to extricate yourself from
Absurd.
 

oneworld2

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You claimed this already. Yep, still absurd and thoroughly pro-Russian/bad guy.


Are all of these US foreign policy experts pro Putin/Russian too. Sure they might not call for the end of NATO but they sure as hell knew what NATO expansion eastward would initiate

Analysts committed to a US foreign policy of realism and restraint have warned for more than a quarter‐century that continuing to expand the most powerful military alliance in history toward another major power would not end well. The war in Ukraine provides definitive confirmation that it did not.


But it's all, at least in your crazily subjective head, a Putin propaganda ruse :rolleyes:
 

ChickenTendies

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Japan attacked the U.S, declared war on the U.S. They lost that war, of course they had to make concessions.
Ukraine was invaded unjustly by Putin; why would they have to make Japan-like concessions?
They would be restricted from joining NATO. That's a non-starter.

Of course Ukraine surrendering would be an off-ramp for Putin. Ukraine thinks that's a stupid off-ramp.
Up to Ukraine of they want to give in to Russian-demands, and it will have long term consequences either way.
So you prefer the solution where Ukraine gets leveled and capitulates anyway?
 
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