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Russia faces revolution and collapse within 10 years after sanctions undermined its economy (1 Viewer)

Rogue Valley

Lead or get out of the way
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1.9.23
Russia is at risk of becoming a failed state or even breaking up by 2033 as the economy flounders due to the long-term impact of Western sanctions, according to a new survey conducted by the Atlantic Council. The poll garnered the views of 167 experts on what they think the world will look like in 10 years. While 46% of respondents expect Russia to splinter by 2033, 21% see it as the most likely country to become a doomed state. "One of the most surprising takeaways was how many respondents pointed to a potential Russian collapse over the next decade — suggesting that the Kremlin's war against Ukraine could precipitate hugely consequential upheaval in a great power with the largest nuclear-weapons arsenal on the planet," the think-tank said. Moreover, 40% of respondents expect Russia to break up internally by 2033 because of "revolution, civil war, political disintegration." Russia's economy has been crumbling in the face of Western sanctions imposed on the country following its invasion of Ukraine. In November, it slipped into recession eight months after Moscow launched its attack.

The nation's central bank has warned that a ban on Russian oil and a price cap on its crude announced by the European Union were "new economic shocks" that could choke activity in the coming months. The sanctions, which were imposed late last year, aim to squeeze revenues for Moscow's wartime economy. Experts told Insider that Moscow's isolation from the West could result in a disaster for its economy. While Russia has been trying to reduce the impact of sanctions by working exclusively with "friendly" nations, experts say it is a "recipe for long-term stagnation." Meanwhile, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg wrote in a new op-ed for Financial Times. that Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to launch a war against Ukraine has left the country "poorer and more isolated than for decades."


There may well come a tipping point when a palace coup is attempted. This could be the catalyst for a grassroots revolution in Russia against Putinism.

 
Russia is at risk of becoming a failed state

Every state is a failed state, in that they all make the people they rule over poorer and worse off.
 




There may well come a tipping point when a palace coup is attempted. This could be the catalyst for a grassroots revolution in Russia against Putinism.





Another way of looking at it is the author is conceding the much ballyhooed sanctions are not working. Its not like in the feverish atmosphere of last February the Sanctioneers were aiming for long term death. No, they wanted immediate collapse. Now that it failed the author punts the ball ten years down field. Heck, ten years is a long time, anything can happen, and its ten years Ukraine may not have
 
Well, we can certainly hope so.

Russia is basically the world's tumor.
 
Sanctions mean Russia has to pay extra on the black market for hi-tech replacement parts. When they can get them. I cry for them, the rotten bastards.
 
Another way of looking at it is the author is conceding the much ballyhooed sanctions are not working. Its not like in the feverish atmosphere of last February the Sanctioneers were aiming for long term death. No, they wanted immediate collapse. Now that it failed the author punts the ball ten years down field. Heck, ten years is a long time, anything can happen, and its ten years Ukraine may not have
That is a conservative estimate. Ukrainian intelligence is now saying that they will try to mobilize 500,000 more soldiers and win in Ukraine or Putin will fall. That is going to happen a lot sooner. They will not win no matter how many soldiers they send to die.

Russia plans to mobilize 500,000 soldiers in days. If they don't deliver victory, then 'Putin will collapse,' says Ukrainian spy chief.

  • The Ukrainian military is warning that Putin is planning to mobilize up to half a million new troops.
  • The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service said that they believe the mobilization will be announced on January 15.
  • "If Russia loses this time around, then Putin will collapse," said Ukraine's deputy military intelligence chief.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ys-ukrainian-spy-chief/ar-AA164Y3g?li=BBnb7Kz
 
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Juin said:
Another way of looking at it is the author is conceding the much ballyhooed sanctions are not working. Its not like in the feverish atmosphere of last February the Sanctioneers were aiming for long term death. No, they wanted immediate collapse. Now that it failed the author punts the ball ten years down field. Heck, ten years is a long time, anything can happen, and its ten years Ukraine may not have

That is a conservative estimate. Ukrainian intelligence is now saying that they will try to mobilize 500,000 more soldiers and win in Ukraine or Putin will fall. That is going to happen a lot sooner.


LOL would that be from reading the walls, Iguanaman :)? I believe the Ukrainian Intelligence should busy itself with what it has control over: Ukrainian mobilisation.


They will not win no matter how many soldiers they send to die.
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That's up to the Russians. Russians dont win or lose wars because you say so.
 
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Juin said:
Another way of looking at it is the author is conceding the much ballyhooed sanctions are not working. Its not like in the feverish atmosphere of last February the Sanctioneers were aiming for long term death. No, they wanted immediate collapse. Now that it failed the author punts the ball ten years down field. Heck, ten years is a long time, anything can happen, and its ten years Ukraine may not have




LOL would that be from reading the walls, Iguanaman :)? I believe the Ukrainian Intelligence should busy itself with what it has control over: Ukrainian mobilisation.





That's up to the Russians. Russians dont win or lose wars because you say so.
We will see how accurate Ukrainian intelligence soon enough. They said the new Russian mobilization will start on the 15th.
 
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We will see how accurate Ukrainian intelligence soon enough. They said the new mobilization will start on the 15th.


Absolutely. Lets wait and see. My problem is that you have a tendency to treat possible future occurrences as established facts. Russia is facing a Ukraine backed by $100billions and counting war chest. Far from an easy task. So Russia should mobilise. I understand Ukraine has also mobilised to the max.
 
Russia is facing a Ukraine backed by $100billions and counting war chest. Far from an easy task.

Putin chose the war path. He had the choice to ignore those imperialist whispers in his ear.
 

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