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Russia faces revolution and collapse within 10 years after sanctions undermined its economy, many experts tell think-tank
Experts surveyed by the Atlantic Council expect Russia is most likely to become a failed state or break up by 2033 as sanctions rattle its economy.

1.9.23
Russia is at risk of becoming a failed state or even breaking up by 2033 as the economy flounders due to the long-term impact of Western sanctions, according to a new survey conducted by the Atlantic Council. The poll garnered the views of 167 experts on what they think the world will look like in 10 years. While 46% of respondents expect Russia to splinter by 2033, 21% see it as the most likely country to become a doomed state. "One of the most surprising takeaways was how many respondents pointed to a potential Russian collapse over the next decade — suggesting that the Kremlin's war against Ukraine could precipitate hugely consequential upheaval in a great power with the largest nuclear-weapons arsenal on the planet," the think-tank said. Moreover, 40% of respondents expect Russia to break up internally by 2033 because of "revolution, civil war, political disintegration." Russia's economy has been crumbling in the face of Western sanctions imposed on the country following its invasion of Ukraine. In November, it slipped into recession eight months after Moscow launched its attack.
The nation's central bank has warned that a ban on Russian oil and a price cap on its crude announced by the European Union were "new economic shocks" that could choke activity in the coming months. The sanctions, which were imposed late last year, aim to squeeze revenues for Moscow's wartime economy. Experts told Insider that Moscow's isolation from the West could result in a disaster for its economy. While Russia has been trying to reduce the impact of sanctions by working exclusively with "friendly" nations, experts say it is a "recipe for long-term stagnation." Meanwhile, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg wrote in a new op-ed for Financial Times. that Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to launch a war against Ukraine has left the country "poorer and more isolated than for decades."
There may well come a tipping point when a palace coup is attempted. This could be the catalyst for a grassroots revolution in Russia against Putinism.

Welcome to 2033: What the world could look like in ten years, according to more than 160 experts
To survey the future, we polled global strategists and foresight gurus on our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next decade. Check out their forecasts on everything from the prospect of nuclear proliferation to the probability of great-power war to the potential...
