Russia’s siege of Mariupol a grim sign for other major Ukrainian cities

3.4.22
Scenes from the city of Mariupol, under heavy attack in Ukraine’s southeast, have been as grim as they get. No water. No electricity. No heat. Officials in the encircled city say they can’t offer an accurate estimate of fatalities because no one has been able to leave the relative safety of wherever they’ve taken shelter to go out and find the dead. Mariupol, a heavily fortified city of 430,000, may be a dismal harbinger of things to come for other Ukrainian cities, as Russian forces — unable to capture the country quickly — carry out siege tactics and mass shelling to take over major metropolitan areas. A senior Western intelligence official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the issue’s sensitivity, warned this week to brace for “massive loss of human life, especially civilians,” in the coming days and weeks as the war in Ukraine enters a new stage. “These will be real sieges,” the official said. “They will be almost medieval in their approach. They will cordon cities. They will bombard them until the ground bounces. And then they will go in, and they’ll go street to street.” If the Russian military uses those tactics to assault the capital, Kyiv — a city of nearly 3 million — and other densely populated areas such as Dnipro and Odessa, it will mark a particularly grave turn. Already, a million people have fled the violence in Ukraine.

As the war grinds on, the conflict may also become less visible. Early on, international journalists have closely covered the invasion from Kyiv and other cities that still have electricity, Internet and cellphone service. But if Russian forces disable local utilities, as they have in Mariupol, the developments will become far more difficult to broadcast. Big cities such as Kyiv that the Ukrainian military is gearing up to defend, however, could well be pummeled — at great cost to those who remain. The Russian military faces logistical problems that could inhibit its ability to move the huge amount of ammunition needed to surround big cities and shell them into capitulation, as in Mariupol. The military, he said, would need to amass an overwhelming amount of combat power to launch an operation inside a city as big as Kyiv, and it would become difficult for the Russians the longer such fighting dragged on. The longer it goes, the worse it will be.

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Rogue Valley said:

Russia’s siege of Mariupol a grim sign for other major Ukrainian cities

The Mayor of Mariupol, Vadym Boichenko, said he had obtained from the Russian military a ceasefire and humanitarian corridors so civilians could leave the city. But when the time came to leave, the Russians intensified their shelling.

As the war goes on, look for the Kremlin to forbid reporting on the war from Ukraine as it has forbidden Russian media and citizens from reporting on it (under pain of a 15 year sentence). The Russian military will place a cordon around their operations where the press is forbidden to enter. They will even kill some reporters to make the point.

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Felis Leo said:

With the Russians being so worried about risking their airforce (with good reason), they are relying on their artillery. The only hope I see is if the Ukrainians are able to launch a counteroffensive and capture or destroy Russian artillery positions.

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Rogue Valley said:

I can't imagine why the UA is hesitating to hit that 40 mile long Russian column north of Kyiv.

They have grenade launchers, mortar's, artillery, Javelin's, and Turkey sent more armed drones.

They could make that look like the "Highway of Death" in Iraq.

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