Ruble Devaluation?

[Luckyone]

A whole lot has been made of the Ruble devaluation that occurred because of the sanctions. The Ruble devalued some 50% in value.

What no one is mentioning is that the Ruble has recovered and as of this morning, it was only 11% lower than where it was prior to the sanctions. It is still bad for Russia but not as bad as it looked originally.

Nonetheless, some news did come out today that could make a difference:

G7 Rejects Russia's Demand to Pay for Gas in Rubles​

By the same token, that news came out 2 hours ago (10:45 am - March 28th) and yet over the past 2 hours of the Ruble trading, it has not done anything.

What are your thoughts on this? Are the sanctions working?

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

The G7 refusal to pay in Rubles is all dependent on who would blink first.

Russia could refuse to ship unless paid in rubles, Europe can refuse to pay in Rubles. Whonblinks first be the biggest issue

 

[Luckyone]

The G7 refusal to pay in Rubles is all dependent on who would blink first.

Russia could refuse to ship unless paid in rubles, Europe can refuse to pay in Rubles. Whonblinks first be the biggest issue

Russia refuse to ship when they are in need of income? Very doubtful.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Russia refuse to ship when they are in need of income? Very doubtful.

Europe is in need of supply,

Who would blink first? Had Russia invaded in Dec, Europe would have blinked first, spring and summer, I would expect Russia

 

[PirateMk1]

The G7 refusal to pay in Rubles is all dependent on who would blink first.

Russia could refuse to ship unless paid in rubles, Europe can refuse to pay in Rubles. Whonblinks first be the biggest issue

Depends on how much natural gas we can ship to Europe on who blinks first. If we can supply europe adequately then Russia blinks. If not....

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Depends on how much natural gas we can ship to Europe on who blinks first. If we can supply europe adequately then Russia blinks. If not....

I don't think the infrastructure to accept LNG is in place to switch over entirely from Russian gas. LNG plants I expect would be a min 1 year project to design, get approvals, build and commission into operation. Europe is lucky they are moving into spring and summer with reduced demands for NG

 

[phoenix2020]

The Ruble didn't really lose all that much value. It was ironic how in the days leading up to the invasion, people were exclaiming that the Ruble was worth less than one US cent. Then, throughout the first couple of weeks of the actual war & sanctions, the "omg sanctions will DESTROY Russia!" crowd kept posting "the Ruble is NOW worth less than one US cent!" articles leaving out that it was already there before the sanctions.

I'm not opposed to sanctions, not at all, but between the fact that the EU is still buying fossil fuels from Russia, and the fact that Russia is doing brisk business with China and others, I expect the sanctions to have near-zero effect on Putin's decision making.