Rubio vs. Clinton February edition
As you know I have been using a Trump vs. Clinton match up in my Senate, House and Presidential predictions. I decided to use the same formula I use in my presidential prediction with Trump vs. Clinton in a Rubio vs. Clinton election. I choose Rubio as his unfavorable ratings are lower than Trumps among all three groups, Republican base, independents and the Democratic base voters. The results were astounding. Whereas Clinton defeats Trump in the popular vote 47.9% to 46.3%, Rubio wins the popular vote against Clinton 49.5% to 46.8%. Why, independents who give Clinton a 58% unfavorable rating and Trump a 60% unfavorable rating. Independents give Rubio a positive ratio of 38% favorable, 36% unfavorable which translates in Rubio winning independents by a 52-42 margin as to Clinton winning independents 46-44 over Trump.
In the Electoral College Rubio does even better. Clinton is defeating Trump 294-244 in my February prediction. But Rubio defeats Clinton 282-256. Rubio carries all the states Trump would, but adds the states of New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa and Minnesota to his column. Rubio is also very competitive in the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin where Trump is not.
As you know I have been using a Trump vs. Clinton match up in my Senate, House and Presidential predictions. I decided to use the same formula I use in my presidential prediction with Trump vs. Clinton in a Rubio vs. Clinton election. I choose Rubio as his unfavorable ratings are lower than Trumps among all three groups, Republican base, independents and the Democratic base voters. The results were astounding. Whereas Clinton defeats Trump in the popular vote 47.9% to 46.3%, Rubio wins the popular vote against Clinton 49.5% to 46.8%. Why, independents who give Clinton a 58% unfavorable rating and Trump a 60% unfavorable rating. Independents give Rubio a positive ratio of 38% favorable, 36% unfavorable which translates in Rubio winning independents by a 52-42 margin as to Clinton winning independents 46-44 over Trump.
In the Electoral College Rubio does even better. Clinton is defeating Trump 294-244 in my February prediction. But Rubio defeats Clinton 282-256. Rubio carries all the states Trump would, but adds the states of New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa and Minnesota to his column. Rubio is also very competitive in the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin where Trump is not.