Roe and the Great Diversion

[Mina]

If the leaked opinion is adopted by the Supreme Court and Roe is repealed, it will likely mean the rift between red and blue states will grow even more dramatically.

There's a theory that one of the things that contributed to the huge decline in violent crime rates in the mid-to-late 1990's is that's when the "Roe Generation" reached its peak crime years. Thanks to Roe, it was a generation with an unusually high percentage of people who'd actually been planned and wanted by their parents. The theory goes that having relatively fewer people who grew up impoverished and neglected by parents ill-prepared to deal with them meant that the generation committed crimes at lower rates than prior generations in that age block. Where moral scolds like Bill Bennett had anticipated the arrival of a new generation of super-predators, instead we got a generation that was less likely to turn violent. Well, if Roe goes and abortion is soon illegal in the conservative half of America, that theory suggests we're a generation away from sky-rocketed violent crime in those areas.

Already, our nation's worst states for violence are red states. The top states for murder rates in 2020 were LA, MO, MS, AR, SC, AL, and TN -- all places likely to outlaw or extremely restrict terminating an unwanted pregnancy if the Constitution no longer bars their way. So, they could plunge even further into the abyss, while most low crime states remain in reasonably good shape. Of the ten states with the lowest murder rates, only two (ID and UT) are likely to outlaw abortion. As nasty as life already is somewhere like Missouri, versus somewhere like Massachusetts, that gulf seems likely to grow.

 

[tres borrachos]

If the leaked opinion is adopted by the Supreme Court and Roe is repealed, it will likely mean the rift between red and blue states will grow even more dramatically.

There's a theory that one of the things that contributed to the huge decline in violent crime rates in the mid-to-late 1990's is that's when the "Roe Generation" reached its peak crime years. Thanks to Roe, it was a generation with an unusually high percentage of people who'd actually been planned and wanted by their parents. The theory goes that having relatively fewer people who grew up impoverished and neglected by parents ill-prepared to deal with them meant that the generation committed crimes at lower rates than prior generations in that age block. Where moral scolds like Bill Bennett had anticipated the arrival of a new generation of super-predators, instead we got a generation that was less likely to turn violent. Well, if Roe goes and abortion is soon illegal in the conservative half of America, that theory suggests we're a generation away from sky-rocketed violent crime in those areas.

Already, our nation's worst states for violence are red states. The top states for murder rates in 2020 were LA, MO, MS, AR, SC, AL, and TN -- all places likely to outlaw or extremely restrict terminating an unwanted pregnancy if the Constitution no longer bars their way. So, they could plunge even further into the abyss, while most low crime states remain in reasonably good shape. Of the ten states with the lowest murder rates, only two (ID and UT) are likely to outlaw abortion. As nasty as life already is somewhere like Missouri, versus somewhere like Massachusetts, that gulf seems likely to grow.

I think you're missing a breaking news article.

 

[Mina]

I think you're missing a breaking news article.

Yep. Sorry about that. I didn't realize this was just for sharing breaking new articles. I will be more careful about where I put it in the future.

 

[Slartibartfast]

Yep. Sorry about that. I didn't realize this was just for sharing breaking new articles. I will be more careful about where I put it in the future.

Don't feel bad, almost all of my dings from the mods were due to posting the wrong stuff here. It happens to all of us.

 

[Mina]

Don't feel bad, almost all of my dings from the mods were due to posting the wrong stuff here. It happens to all of us.

I normally hate moderation. I left my last forum because of heavy-handed moderators. But I agree with sub-forum-specific subject rules, to help people find the stuff they want to discuss, so I'm happy to learn that rule and will do my best to follow it.

 

[NWRatCon]

I just posted a similar thought in a new thread, but with a slightly different emphasis. I may just import it here, although I hate cross-posts.

"I've been in a number of discussions regarding the divergence of "Red" and "Blue" America, here and elsewhere. Just this week, the leak of the Dobbs draft opinion has reinvigorated the debate.

America’s Blue-Red Divide Is About to Get Starker (Atlantic)​

"As abortion rights are rolled back in certain states, the gap between the country’s two dominant political coalitions will widen."

As with just about every current issue, there is a stark divergence of opinion between "conservative" America, and "liberal" America. But, having studied the circumstances, this is really a matter of geography and demographics as much as politics, and that is why it is such a tough nut to crack. I agree with the conclusion that the divide is about to get starker, but there is so much to it. In a 2020 study, UNLV produced
Blue Metros, Red States: America's Suburbs and the New Battleground in Presidential Politics (UNLV).

From the latter, there is this graphic

I know it looks weird, but it illustrates just how intransigent the issue is. What it represents is where the Republican and Democratic votes are, and their relative strength. Blue States have large conservative voting blocks, and even in the Reddest of Red States (with a few exceptions), there are large bastions of Democratic voters - Bozeman, Montana; Austin and Houston, Texas; Memphis and Nashville, Tennessee; Kansas City and St. Louis, Missouri. What is also points out is, Red State, Blue City: How the Urban-Rural Divide Is Splitting America (Atlantic).

Given that, how do we divvy up the country? "Partisan lines that once fell along regional borders can increasingly be found at the county level. What does that mean for the future of the United States?"

Even in my county and State, the rural/urban divide is pretty profound. In Washington, 3/4 of the population lives along the I-5 corridor, but that represents only 1/3 of the State's geography. East Pierce and King County doesn't resemble the West side (where Tacoma and Seattle are) at all. The 2020 election results are instructive: Joe Biden won Washington 58.4% to 39 percent, but only 10 of 39 counties. The same trend applies all over the country. "The difference is no longer about where people live, it's about how people live: in spread-out, open, low-density privacy -- or amid rough-and-tumble, in-your-face population density and diverse communities that enforce a lower-common denominator of tolerance among inhabitants.

The voting data suggest that people don't make cities liberal -- cities make people liberal."

What Dobbs will potentially bring to the fore is the vicious and visceral divide between politicians and their constituents, and between the rural, urban, suburban and exurban areas. People are going to feel trapped in foreign territory, no matter which side of the divide they reside on."