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Rising Desperation Suggests that the Bush Campaign is Nearing an End

donsutherland1

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From Politico.com:

Bush told a packed town hall-style event at Franklin Pierce University Tuesday morning that "the three candidates who just won" — Trump, Cruz and Rubio — are all Republican versions of Barack Obama, who he said is "gifted and he’s an extraordinary speaker even today, but he uses his skills to push down the people who disagree with him to make himself look better."

"The three candidates who just won, it’s kind of similar, isn't it?" he said. "If you look at their records, they’re gifted in how they speak, but what about their life experience. Is there something in their past that would suggest they have the capability of making a tough decision?"
New Hampshire primary 2016: Ted Cruz takes the fight to Donald Trump in New Hampshire - POLITICO

Although Bush implied that the three leading Republican candidates lack the ability to make “a tough decision,” the voters have already rendered their verdict against Bush. In their judgment, there is nothing in former Governor Bush’s past to suggest that he has the experience to lead the country.

The Iowa exit poll was revealing. Bush finished 6[SUP]th[/SUP] with 3% of the vote. Among voters seeking candidates with political experience, Bush did little better winning 4% of that group's vote. Rubio (39%) and Cruz (35%) easily surpassed Bush’s totals. Even more troubling for Bush, candidates with no political experience (Trump at 3% and Carson at 2%) garnered a similar share of the vote from this group. The blunt reality for Bush is that among Iowa’s voters who want the next President to have political experience, Bush’s experience mattered very little.

During the campaign, Bush has sought to differentiate himself in terms of his economic record, but failed to do so. Despite repeatedly claiming to have detailed policy plans, including during his closing statement from the most recent debate, he has unveiled only a tax plan when it comes to economics. He has never gotten into a detailed discussion of substance ranging from incomes to trade. Among Iowa’s voters who felt that the economy/jobs was most important (27%) Bush finished in a 3-way tie with Kasich and Paul at 4%. Even Carson, who has no economic experience whatsoever, won 9% of that group.

All said, Bush is a candidate who came into the race with an impressive resume, but proved unable to pass the proverbial interview in converting that resume into support. His efforts were hobbled by frequently weak debate performances, an inability to differentiate himself from his rivals from offering substantive ideas in contrast to their generalities, and an overall lackluster campaign. His messages were so badly muddled that he squandered his opportunity and a more than $100 million war chest in the process.

In Iowa, the voters soundly dismissed him. In New Hampshire, he faces a similar fate, as Cruz and Rubio rise in the polls on account of their Iowa performances. Bush will likely be relegated to 4[SUP]th[/SUP] or 5[SUP]th[/SUP] place, possibly winning around 10% of the vote. The tiny Emerson poll that showed his support at 18% in New Hampshire has proved to be an outlier, as subsequent polls placed it around 9%.

In New Hampshire and perhaps, but not necessarily, all the way to South Carolina, his campaign and his Right to Rise Super PAC may well exhaust most of their remaining funds, but the marginal return on investment will likely be close to zero in this campaign environment. Once voter perceptions harden, it's exceptionally difficult to change them.

Moreover, he is now doing little more than flailing away at the leaders. His desperation is transparent. It only serves to destroy the last vestiges of his desired narrative of a leader who is capable of making “tough decisions” under pressure. That approach is an unmistakable symptom that the Bush candidacy has already failed, even if it will stagger on for a little longer.

In the end, Bush is a decent and honorable public servant who did much for Florida. But that’s in the increasingly distant past and it is not enough to become President of the United States when a candidate is unable to connect that experience with the requirements of the Presidency. Now, if he truly wants a mainstream Republican candidate to become President, he should have the courage to make the tough decision to withdraw from the race to help make that outcome possible.
 

Ontologuy

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Bush might be the only GOP candidate who could take the Electoral College from Hillary.

If he drops, and assuming he doesn't become the foreseeable dark horse at the GOP convention, Trump's function for the Democrats will be complete.
 

nota bene

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I feel bad for Jeb. Trump's candidacy deflected so much attention from him that he never "caught on."
 

Gill

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Bush might be the only GOP candidate who could take the Electoral College from Hillary.

If he drops, and assuming he doesn't become the foreseeable dark horse at the GOP convention, Trump's function for the Democrats will be complete.
Guess that's why Democrat after Democrat says they fear Rubio the most.
 

donsutherland1

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Bush might be the only GOP candidate who could take the Electoral College from Hillary.

If he drops, and assuming he doesn't become the foreseeable dark horse at the GOP convention, Trump's function for the Democrats will be complete.
Senator Rubio is a much superior debater and communicator. Bush would have difficulty articulating what separates him from the Democratic Party's nominee, the relevance of his experience as Governor, and the policy path he would propose. That's exactly the kind of issue that has plagued him throughout his run for the Republican nomination.
 

Roadvirus

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I feel bad for Jeb. Trump's candidacy deflected so much attention from him that he never "caught on."
Jeb would've done fairly well if he hadn't voiced his support for Common Core and said illegal immigration was "an act of love". Couple that with his weak & failed attacks on Trump...

Jeb was doomed to fail and only has himself to blame.
 

SocialD

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Jeb would've done fairly well if he hadn't voiced his support for Common Core and said illegal immigration was "an act of love". Couple that with his weak & failed attacks on Trump...

Jeb was doomed to fail and only has himself to blame.
Well Jeb has decided to haul his mom with him to New Hampshire hoping for some help from her. it really is desperate. Barbara Bush really was well liked but stick a fork in the guy hes done.
 

NonoBadDog

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Jeb would've done fairly well if he hadn't voiced his support for Common Core and said illegal immigration was "an act of love". Couple that with his weak & failed attacks on Trump...

Jeb was doomed to fail and only has himself to blame.
That is the battle Rubio is fighting right now with the immigration issue. He says something, then says he didn't say it and again says what he "didn't say".
 

NonoBadDog

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Well Jeb has decided to haul his mom with him to New Hampshire hoping for some help from her. it really is desperate. Barbara Bush really was well liked but stick a fork in the guy hes done.
I like Barbara. She is a genuine good person. She can't help him.
 

Fearandloathing

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Well, that's true.
When I look at the unfiltered Jeb Bush, I see a fellow named Joe Clark, at one time and for a short time, he was Prime Minister of Canada. Right out of the nerd factory, Joe became the go-to guy for the then Progressive Conservatives. Similar to this campaign, sans the side show that is Trump, there were two leading candidates, both decent choices, but each had enough against them the convention refused to give either a majority after a record number of votes. The convention began turning to Joe as the alternative, and he managed to come up the middle, and win the convention.

Joe is a decent man with the best intentions of Canada at heart. He was stiff, no, he was rigid, hearth tempered steal in public, goof prone and horribly misunderstood, had he been they would never had chosen him.

I never liked anything about the George W Bush administration, but for some reason "Dubya" came across similarly, a decent guy with the nation's interests at heart. I still see the photo of him in shock right after 911 and how it both evoked sympathy for him, but showed how deeply he cared about his fellow Canadians.

Jeb has even more of those characteristics and as I see his politics, he's far enough left of Cruz he could become attractive down the road in the same way Joke Lark came up the middle in the 70's. As primaries go, this one is out there a bit beyond the ozone layer but not yet Twilight Zone; anything can happen

And we must never lose sight of the history of the Republican Party circling the wagons and shooting inward...
 
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cpwill

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