Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Biden leads Trump nationally, but race much tighter in key states

[ReubenSherr]

I’m so sorry you think those numbers are good for you. So *so* sorry.

Biden’s RCP lead, as of this morning is down to 6.1.

His actual lead is 5.7, since RCP used the version of the ABC poll which didn’t include third party candidates.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Nearly 3.0% of the people that get this die, with the number of cases is climbing and this is your argument that you feel safer? Forgive me, but that makes no sense. You think a 3.0% death rate from an out of control virus is a measure of safety? That is just nonsensical.

Case numbers are climbing more drastically in many European countries. Cases here have been down since September 25. And down in general since July 16.

Italy 12.4% Deaths per Cases
United Kingdom 11.4% Deaths per Cases
Belgium 10.7% Deaths per Cases
Mexico 10.6% Deaths per Cases
France 8.3% Deaths per Cases
Netherlands 7.7% Deaths per Cases
Canada 6.7% Deaths per Cases
Ireland 5.8% Deaths per Cases
Iran 5.7% Deaths per Cases
China 5.4% Deaths per Cases
Hungary 5.3% Deaths per Cases
Spain 5.2% Deaths per Cases
Switzerland 4.3% Deaths per Cases
Syria 4.3% Deaths per Cases
Peru 4.2% Deaths per Cases
Germany 3.6% Deaths per Cases
Poland 3.0% Deaths per Cases
Australia 3.0% Deaths per Cases
Brazil 3.0% Deaths per Cases
United States 3.0% Deaths per Cases

 

[Aunt Antifa]

Biden’s RCP lead, as of this morning is down to 6.1.

His actual lead is 5.7, since RCP used the version of the ABC poll which didn’t include third party candidates.

Yup. And it also has him +6 in the 4 way. Great lead.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Yup. And it also has him +6 in the 4 way. Great lead.

Lol are you using that RCP four way chart where most of the polls are 2-4 weeks old?

Hardly anyone is using the third party candidates. ABC has Biden +6 in the four way race, Monmouth has him +5 in the four way race, and these two polling firms are extremely liberal.

The remainder of the polls on RCP this week simply gave people two choices, Trump or Biden. By all indications, the inclusion of Jorgensen and Hawkins narrows Biden’s lead even more. Because per ABC, it narrowed his lead 4 points.

 

[Aunt Antifa]

Lol are you using that RCP four way chart where most of the polls are 2-4 weeks old?

Hardly anyone is using the third party candidates. ABC has Biden +6 in the four way race, Monmouth has him +5 in the four way race, and these two polling firms are extremely liberal.

The remainder of the polls on RCP simply gave people two choices, Trump or Biden. By all indications, the inclusion of Jorgensen and Hawkins narrows Biden’s lead even more. Because per ABC, it narrowed his lead 4 points.

Oh, so to review REub’s brand new polling positions

• RCP is now untrustworthy
• No one is using 4 way polling, but Biden being a +6 is trouble...for him...?
• ABC poll, and did I mention this one poll I really like and no longe rlike any of the other polls I’ve been using for weeks?

 

[ReubenSherr]

Oh, so to review REub’s brand new polling positions

• RCP is now untrustworthy
• No one is using 4 way polling, but Biden being a +6 is trouble...for him...?
• ABC poll, and did I mention this one poll I really like and no longe rlike any of the other polls I’ve been using for weeks?

Do you think the ABC poll showing Biden up by 10 is meaningful?

Given that, when respondents are given choices including third party candidates, Biden’s lead shrinks to 6?

The third party candidates will be on the ballot.

What is the point of RCP publishing the 10 point lead?

BTW I go by Ben, not Reub lol.

 

[upsideguy]

As far as the coronavirus pandemic, Trump has demonstrated that he is incompetent as dealing with it. Does he make you feel safe?

If Biden had been in charge, our deaths per cases would be in the double digits, like the UK’s. Especially because he would not have imposed travel restrictions to and from China, which bought hospitals valuable time.

HCQ misinformation is one reason we had more deaths than necessary. CNN was obsessed with it being “snakeoil,” when it could have saved thousands of lives, had physicians and patients been allowed to make the decision themselves.

The liberal media needed the additional cases and deaths.

1) US death rates under Trump have exceeded that of all European countries except Spain.... and within two weeks, it will be higher than Spain's..

COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

2) The China travel ban, which was poorly executed, only bought Trump a couple of weeks, which he squandered. A travel ban only slows the introduction of the virus into your country, it doesn't stop it. You are suppose to use the time you buy with a travel ban to get your house in order. Trump failed here.

Given that the mismanagement of the virus occurred once it was in this country, the China travel ban was really moot..... kind of like hitting a home run in the 1st inning but losing the game 9-1.

AP FACT CHECK: Trump and the virus-era China ban that isn't

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump's “ban” on travel from China is his go-to point when defending his response to the coronavirus pandemic.

apnews.com

Trump's Snowballing China Travel Claim - FactCheck.org

President Trump said that restrictions he placed on travel from China "saved a lot of lives," a claim that grew to "probably tens of thousands" and "hundreds of thousands." But we found no support for such figures.

www.factcheck.org

Moreover, the travel ban that he wants so much credit for had too many loopholes, including not banning international travel overall. Remember, the virus hit America full force from Europe, not China.

3) HCQ misinformation ... as in Trump's obsession with fantasy cures (including it will just go away) kept him from taking this pandemic seriously, thus leading to the needless deaths of 200K Americans ... yes, that is correct.

I don't know where you are getting your news as you are shy about showing us, but clearly its leading you astray as you are seemingly a very misinformed poster. Please up your game.

 

[ReubenSherr]

1) US death rates under Trump have exceeded that of all European countries except Spain.... and within two weeks, it will be higher than Spain's..

COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

2) The China travel ban, which was poorly executed, only bought Trump a couple of weeks, which he squandered. A travel ban only slows the introduction of the virus into your country, it doesn't stop it. You are suppose to use the time you buy with a travel ban to get your house in order. Trump failed here.

Given that the mismanagement of the virus occurred once it was in this country, the China travel ban was really moot..... kind of like hitting a home run in the 1st inning but losing the game 9-1.

AP FACT CHECK: Trump and the virus-era China ban that isn't

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump's “ban” on travel from China is his go-to point when defending his response to the coronavirus pandemic.

apnews.com

Trump's Snowballing China Travel Claim - FactCheck.org

President Trump said that restrictions he placed on travel from China "saved a lot of lives," a claim that grew to "probably tens of thousands" and "hundreds of thousands." But we found no support for such figures.

www.factcheck.org

Moreover, the travel ban that he wants so much credit for had too many loopholes, including not banning international travel overall. Remember, the virus hit America full force from Europe, not China.

3) HCQ misinformation ... as in Trump's obsession with fantasy cures (including it will just go away) kept him from taking this pandemic seriously, thus leading to the needless deaths of 200K Americans ... yes, that is correct.

I don't know where you are getting your news as you are shy about showing us, but clearly its leading you astray as you are seemingly a very misinformed poster. Please up your game.

I don’t know where you’re getting your news, but if you seriously think HCQ is a “fantasy cure,” you have been paying zero attention to the studies.

The United Kingdom has more deaths per percent of the world’s population than we do. 0.85% of the world’s population, 4.5% if the world’s deaths. You’d better start calling Boris Johnson a murderer. Wait, that wouldn’t help Biden, never mind. And you need the support of the Guardian and the BBC.

The travel restrictions to and from China bought many hospitals two weeks to prepare, which is one reason our deaths per cases is so low. I have no idea what the point was of all that garbage you spewed about the travel restrictions, no one claimed they literally blocked 100% of the cases from coming in. Biden clearly would not have attempted to restrict travel at all, as his campaign manager implied in an interview with Bret Bauer.

Our deaths per cases is extremely low, refer to Post 52. The fact that our deaths per capita is higher, compared to other nations, than our deaths per cases, proves exactly what Trump has been claiming for months. That we do more proactive testing if asymptomatic people than anyone else. And that a large percentage of our cases are extremely mild.

You have the habit of loading up your posts with selective data, and pretending to be making an objective analysis, when, with all due respect, you seem to be an arm of the DNC.

 

[NWRatCon]

Nearly 3.0% of the people that get this die, with the number of cases is climbing and this is your argument that you feel safer? Forgive me, but that makes no sense. You think a 3.0% death rate from an out of control virus is a measure of safety? That is just nonsensical.

This entire thread has the stench of desperation about it, doesn't it? Trump is losing, and losing badly, nearly everywhere. All of his chickens are coming home to roost at the same time: His tax fraud has come to light; revelations about his contempt for the military and his evangelical followers; his gross and cynical incompetence about the pandemic; the fraud of his economic claims have been exposed; his brazen efforts to rig the election. And he keeps losing in court, time after time, even before judges he appointed. His tax debt ($100 million and rising), criminal shenanigans, and Ponzi-inspired financing schemes are all coming due at the same time, too. The house of cards is collapsing.

Now, that doesn't mean he can't be reelected. Fivethirtyeight so gives him a better than one in five chance. Less probable events have already occurred. Biden could flub the debate tonight, for example. But, the writing is on the wall in big, bold sharpie. Trump, the GOP, and their camp followers are all desperately seeking a psychic lifeline. Any scrap of "good news", even if invented. It's pathos on the grandest scale. Pass the popcorn.

 

[upsideguy]

I don’t know where you’re getting your news, but if you seriously think HCQ is a “fantasy cure,” you have been paying zero attention to the studies.

The United Kingdom has more deaths per percent of the world’s population than we do. 0.85% of the world’s population, 4.5% if the world’s deaths. You’d better start calling Boris Johnson a murderer. Wait, that wouldn’t help Biden, never mind. And you need the support of the Guardian and the BBC.

You have the habit of loading up your posts with selective data, and pretending to be making an objective analysis, when, with all due respect, you seem to be an arm of the DNC.

Again, US deaths per million are 634 per million which is a greater death rate than the UK, which is 619 per million. Only Spain, at 672 per million and Belgium at 861 per million (sorry, I forgot Belgium in my previous post) are European countries that exceed the US in death rate experience. We will likely pass Spain, which has seemingly brought this under control, in two weeks. (I don't count city state San Marino)

Johnson handled this almost as poorly as Trump, but he seems to finally get it. Europe was also hit hard and early, like the US northeast, but each now have it seemingly under control, unlike most the US. I would have no problem stating the Johnson also failed, with his incompetence leading to the needless deaths of 1000's of Brits. He seems, however, to finally get it. So unlike Trump, Johnson was redeemable.

COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

"Selective data" .... like facts from unbiased sources, like WorldoMeters and the AP. You complain that I present "selective data" but you back up nothing. I document my posts. I am not embarrassed to show you what I read and why I believe what I believe. You, OTH, not so much.

You are free to show us your sources, to back up your statements with data, but you know you will ripped a new one because your sources are fact-free, right wing, political porn. You are not reading news, you are reading political smut and trying to sell it here as truth..... case in point, HCQ..... you say there are studies, let's see them. Put it here for all of us to either become better educated or to admonish you for the trash you read.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Again, US deaths per million are 634 per million which is a greater death rate than the UK, which is 619. Johnson handled this almost as poorly as Trump, but he seems to finally get it. Europe was also hit hard and early, like the US northeast, but each now have it seemingly under control, unlike most the US.

COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

"Selective data" .... like facts from unbiased sources, like WorldoMeters and the AP. You complain that I present "selective data" but you back up Nothing. I document my posts. I am not embarrassed to show you what I read and why I believe what I believe. You, OTH, not so much.

You are free to show us your sources, but you know you will ripped a new one because you sources are fact-free, right wing, political porn. You are not reading news, you are reading political smut and trying to sell it here as truth..... case in point, HCQ..... you say there are studies, let's see them. Put it here for all of us to either become better educated or to admonish you for the trash you read.

Unlike you, I do not sit at my desktop all day long.

Tell me exactly what you need me to link, and I will link it this afternoon when I get home.

Here’s the thing, though. You should not need me to link that HCQ is not a fantasy cure. You should be intelligent and astute enough to have followed the studies as they came out, rather than relying on Anderson Cooper’s coverage, which Jeff Zucker most likely had him read off a teleprompter.

Again, if our deaths per cases is extremely low compared to other nations, and our deaths per capita is higher, this proves exactly what Trump has been stating for months. That we do more proactive testing of asymptomatic people than most other countries. And that a large percentage of our cases are mild.

You are one of the most closed minded posters I’ve come across in this board, and you give off the impression that your job depends on Biden winning. You are willing to twist, turn, and selectively post data to whatever degree is necessary in order to give off the misleading impression that this entire situation is Trump’s fault. I have no idea if you authentically believe this, or if you are personally dependent on Biden winning. I get the impression it is the latter.

 

[Aunt Antifa]