• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!
  • Welcome to our archives. No new posts are allowed here.

Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Biden leads Trump nationally, but race much tighter in key states

JacksinPA

Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Monthly Donator
Joined
Dec 3, 2017
Messages
22,946
Reaction score
13,544
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Progressive

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. presidential race is much closer than national surveys suggest, according to Reuters/Ipsos opinion polls in battleground states that show Democrat Joe Biden with only a slim lead over President Donald Trump in three highly competitive states and in a dead heat in three others.

The online state polls, conducted earlier in September and released this week, found Biden and Trump tied among likely voters in Florida and North Carolina. Biden led by 1 percentage point in Arizona, 3 points in Pennsylvania and 5 points in Wisconsin and Michigan.

All six are critical to determining who wins the Nov. 3 election, given their population size and potential to swing to either party. In each of the states, the difference between the two candidates was near or within the poll’s sampling error, meaning that neither candidate has a clear advantage.
===============================================================
It will be interesting to see how the debates change any of these poll numbers.
 

uptower

DP Veteran
Joined
Nov 8, 2018
Messages
15,786
Reaction score
11,905
Location
Behind you - run!
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
Again I like to look at aggregate polls such as FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin.

The interactive map at 270 lets you play with the states. At this stage Biden is projected to win 278 even without any of the toss-up states. If Biden takes a handful of the toss-ups, without flipping a single red-leaning state, he's still well over 300. Give him all the toss-ups, he's at 369.

Trump has to flip at least one blue-leaning state (preferably worth at least 9 EC votes) to win. Trump can take all the toss-ups and still lose at 260.

Map sep 25.png

It's a great resource to watch for polling changes, as it has already changed since last time I played with it about 10 days ago.
 

ReubenSherr

Well-known member
Joined
May 6, 2020
Messages
8,444
Reaction score
1,488
Location
San Luis Obispo, CA
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Conservative
Again I like to look at aggregate polls such as FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin.

The interactive map at 270 lets you play with the states. At this stage Biden is projected to win 278 even without any of the toss-up states. If Biden takes a handful of the toss-ups, without flipping a single red-leaning state, he's still well over 300. Give him all the toss-ups, he's at 369.

Trump has to flip at least one blue-leaning state (preferably worth at least 9 EC votes) to win. Trump can take all the toss-ups and still lose at 260.

View attachment 67296640

It's a great resource to watch for polling changes, as it has already changed since last time I played with it about 10 days ago.

Trump can easily flip Pennsylvania.

Look back at the Trump/Clinton PA polls from October 2016, she was up by 9 at one point per RCP.
 
Last edited:

Barnacle

DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 10, 2017
Messages
10,720
Reaction score
5,260
Location
Middle Tennessee
Gender
Female
Political Leaning
Conservative
Again I like to look at aggregate polls such as FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin.

The interactive map at 270 lets you play with the states. At this stage Biden is projected to win 278 even without any of the toss-up states. If Biden takes a handful of the toss-ups, without flipping a single red-leaning state, he's still well over 300. Give him all the toss-ups, he's at 369.

Trump has to flip at least one blue-leaning state (preferably worth at least 9 EC votes) to win. Trump can take all the toss-ups and still lose at 260.

View attachment 67296640

It's a great resource to watch for polling changes, as it has already changed since last time I played with it about 10 days ago.



FiveThirtyEight's polling/prediction just before the 2016 election:


screen-shot-2016-11-08-at-9-59-47-am.png
 

Checkerboard Strangler

Sagalong Catastrophe Ranch
Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Joined
Aug 8, 2005
Messages
60,629
Reaction score
42,492
Location
Los Angeles
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Again I like to look at aggregate polls such as FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin.

The interactive map at 270 lets you play with the states. At this stage Biden is projected to win 278 even without any of the toss-up states. If Biden takes a handful of the toss-ups, without flipping a single red-leaning state, he's still well over 300. Give him all the toss-ups, he's at 369.

Trump has to flip at least one blue-leaning state (preferably worth at least 9 EC votes) to win. Trump can take all the toss-ups and still lose at 260.

View attachment 67296640

It's a great resource to watch for polling changes, as it has already changed since last time I played with it about 10 days ago.


WE NEED BIDEN AT 369 MINIMUM to head off Trump's SCOTUS gambit.
It would be highly preferable for him to win with 375 or more.
 

ElChupacabra

Me cago en las cabras!
Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 17, 2018
Messages
25,503
Reaction score
16,892
Location
The Garden State
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. presidential race is much closer than national surveys suggest, according to Reuters/Ipsos opinion polls in battleground states that show Democrat Joe Biden with only a slim lead over President Donald Trump in three highly competitive states and in a dead heat in three others.

The online state polls, conducted earlier in September and released this week, found Biden and Trump tied among likely voters in Florida and North Carolina. Biden led by 1 percentage point in Arizona, 3 points in Pennsylvania and 5 points in Wisconsin and Michigan.

All six are critical to determining who wins the Nov. 3 election, given their population size and potential to swing to either party. In each of the states, the difference between the two candidates was near or within the poll’s sampling error, meaning that neither candidate has a clear advantage.
===============================================================
It will be interesting to see how the debates change any of these poll numbers.

I don't think the debates are going to change much. There's been enough on display and people have most likely made up their minds well before the debates take place. The most we'll get out of them are gaffes. Sorry to sound pessimistic on this front, but this is likely to be a pretty one dimensional race.
 

ReubenSherr

Well-known member
Joined
May 6, 2020
Messages
8,444
Reaction score
1,488
Location
San Luis Obispo, CA
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Conservative
That's it, keep thinking this is 2016 all over again and that people have not witnessed four years of Trump.
This doesn’t address the fact that the polling was off in the Swing States.

To your point, Trump’s favorability on Election Day 2016 was 37.5%. His current approval average is 43% per 538, and 42% per RCP.

Many who witnessed four years of Trump liked what they saw.
 
Last edited:

Puigb

DP Veteran
Joined
Oct 3, 2013
Messages
12,329
Reaction score
6,046
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
This doesn’t address the fact that the polling was off in the Swing States.

To your point, Trump’s favorability on Election Day 2016 was 37.5%. His current approval average is 43% per 538, and 42% per RCP.

Many who witnessed four years of Trump liked what they saw.

Biden's favorability is much higher than Clinton's was.

Also, one consistent thing in almost every poll...Biden is winning Independents and 2016 third party voters. If that translates to Election Day...
 

uptower

DP Veteran
Joined
Nov 8, 2018
Messages
15,786
Reaction score
11,905
Location
Behind you - run!
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
FiveThirtyEight's polling/prediction just before the 2016 election:


screen-shot-2016-11-08-at-9-59-47-am.png

Yes it's true the best such polls can do is a "Chance of winning". You never know until the day.

That isn't a guarantee because Trump won as the outlier once, he'll do it every time, but you're right Dems should not be complacent and think they have it in the bag.
 

NWRatCon

Eco**Social Marketeer
DP Veteran
Joined
Mar 6, 2019
Messages
19,073
Reaction score
13,931
Location
PNW
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Other
If early voting numbers are any indication, Democrats are not complacent. I'm still pegging Biden at 318. Like uptower, I rely on 538 and 270towin; and like ElChupacabra, I don't things are going to change much. I don't want to be too confident, and things can go wrong (as in Florida), but the chances are good despite blatant cheating by the GOP. I want a total blowout. It'd add Arizona, and both Maine and Nebraska 2nd. Ohio and Georgia revert to norm, Florida and North Carolina are just too close to call.

BTW, the Reuters/Ipsos poll is crap (online), like SurveyMonkey, even though they are normally reliable.
 

PoliSciXtina

DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 13, 2018
Messages
1,490
Reaction score
1,496
Location
SC
Political Leaning
Liberal
If early voting numbers are any indication, Democrats are not complacent. I'm still pegging Biden at 318. Like uptower, I rely on 538 and 270towin; and like ElChupacabra, I don't things are going to change much. I don't want to be too confident, and things can go wrong (as in Florida), but the chances are good despite blatant cheating by the GOP. I want a total blowout. It'd add Arizona, and both Maine and Nebraska 2nd. Ohio and Georgia revert to norm, Florida and North Carolina are just too close to call.

BTW, the Reuters/Ipsos poll is crap (online), like SurveyMonkey, even though they are normally reliable.

I am hoping for a total blowout too. But whatever gets trump out of there... is fine by me lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Finch

DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 5, 2018
Messages
709
Reaction score
363
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
FiveThirtyEight's polling/prediction just before the 2016 election:


screen-shot-2016-11-08-at-9-59-47-am.png
2016 Polls Were Not As Wrong As you Think

"Some of the disparities between the polling margins and actual results in states like Wisconsin came from were state-level polls not adequately weighting, or factoring in, education levels, which ended up obscuring some of Trump's support from white, non-college-educated voters. Since then, pollsters have reevaluated many of their methods and now factor in education to a greater extent. "

"also explained in 2017 that voters who decided on a candidate at the last minute heavily broke for Trump in several of the key swing states he narrowly won, an effect that is impossible for polls to capture far in advance." You can thank Comey for that one.....
 

The AntiDonald

Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Joined
Oct 12, 2019
Messages
13,585
Reaction score
11,819
Location
N. Virginia
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Liberal
Trump can easily flip Pennsylvania.

Look back at the Trump/Clinton PA polls from October 2016, she was up by 9 at one point per RCP.
What's to flip. He won it last time, just barely. Clinton's election was taken from her by the Comey letter leaked by GOP members in the senate, plain and simple.

And Trump want's to prosecute Comey. For what, he won the election for him with the letter that led nowhere.
 

BrotherFease

DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 15, 2019
Messages
4,413
Reaction score
2,338
Location
Western New York
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Moderate
Trump can easily flip Pennsylvania.

Look back at the Trump/Clinton PA polls from October 2016, she was up by 9 at one point per RCP.

All swing states can go to either candidate. That's why they are called swing states. Biden has pretty much locked up 222 electoral college votes vs. Trump with 125. Biden only needs about more 48 electors to win the election. If it's a tie at 269 or if no candidate hits the 270 mark, Biden would win the election in the congress.

If Biden continues to lead nationally with more than 4% of the popular vote, he's unlikely to lose the electoral college.

I know you want Trump to win, but the current state has Biden winning, even if he loses both Ohio and Florida.

We really haven't seen any real shifts toward Trump.
 

BrotherFease

DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 15, 2019
Messages
4,413
Reaction score
2,338
Location
Western New York
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Moderate
What's to flip. He won it last time, just barely. Clinton's election was taken from her by the Comey letter leaked by GOP members in the senate, plain and simple.

And Trump want's to prosecute Comey. For what, he won the election for him with the letter that led nowhere.

I see this election cycle similar to 2008. As soon as Obama won the nomination, he was the favorite win the general election and led in most of the swing states.

We can't really compare 2016 to 2020, because it was an election cycle without a true incumbent President and both candidates had over 50% disapproval ratings.

The best the GOP can hope for would be a 1948 election.
 

W_Heisenberg

DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 6, 2019
Messages
19,124
Reaction score
16,532
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Moderate
I think support for Biden is understated right now. We have the Republicans jamming through a justice while the election is occurring in the most hypocritical fashion. We have senior citizens breaking for Biden in a big way because Trump doesn't care if they die of Covid-19, and senior citizens are the most reliably consistent voting bloc in the electorate. The people who despise Trump in a big way are very motivated.

Also, I think people understate the profound effect of anti-Clinton propaganda Fox News pushed in the decades preceding the 2016 election. This had a profound effect on the 2016 election. We don't see that same thing happening with Biden. Fox News hasn't had time to destroy Biden's reputation. Fox News has been gunning for Clinton since she became a Senator.

Also, nearly all of the recent court rulings concerning mail-in ballots are in Biden's favor, especially in the swing states.

I predict a total blowout in Biden's favor, and the Democrats take the Senate.

I also predict we'll know this outcome on election night and not days after.

Thereafter, due to the propaganda by Trump and his cultists about mail-in ballots, I also predict low-intensity terrorism and violence by the gun-nut militia groups across the country throughout Biden's term in office. For example, we see on this very forum a predetermined refusal to accept the mail-in ballots by the more radical Trump supporters. And the anti-voting propaganda by pro-Trump outlets is becoming worse every day. Even with a huge victory by Biden the Q-anon nuts will believe it was stolen by Biden.
 
Last edited:

gulfman

DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 21, 2017
Messages
3,878
Reaction score
2,295
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Very Conservative
I predict Trump will beat Biden more than he did Hillary.
 

element94

Union Democrat
DP Veteran
Joined
Jul 11, 2019
Messages
12,256
Reaction score
6,476
Location
Pennsylvania
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
Trump can easily flip Pennsylvania.

Look back at the Trump/Clinton PA polls from October 2016, she was up by 9 at one point per RCP.

I'm in PA, and I am extremely cautious, but it's safe to say the Philly dem turnout will be higher this time.
 

ReubenSherr

Well-known member
Joined
May 6, 2020
Messages
8,444
Reaction score
1,488
Location
San Luis Obispo, CA
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Conservative
For what it’s worth, Trump nearly cut Biden’s NYT lead in half over the past three months.

In June, the NYT had Biden up by 14, and the poll just out shows Biden’s lead down to 8.

Keeping in mind that this is the NYT, this could be good news for Trump.

Yahoo News/YouGuv also shows Biden’s lead cut in half over the past two weeks, down from 10 points to 5 points. This poll is on 538, but not on RCP for some reason.
 

JacksinPA

Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Monthly Donator
Joined
Dec 3, 2017
Messages
22,946
Reaction score
13,544
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Progressive
For what it’s worth, Trump nearly cut Biden’s NYT lead in half over the past month.

A month ago, the NYT had Biden up by 14, and the poll just out shows Biden’s lead down to 8.

Keeping in mind that this is the NYT, this could be good news for Trump.

Yahoo News/YouGuv also shows Biden’s lead cut in half over the past two weeks, down from 10 points to 5 points. This poll is on 538, but not on RCP for some reason.
As far as the coronavirus pandemic, Trump has demonstrated that he is incompetent as dealing with it. Does he make you feel safe?
 

JacksinPA

Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Monthly Donator
Joined
Dec 3, 2017
Messages
22,946
Reaction score
13,544
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Progressive
Our deaths per cases is 2.9%.

Yes.
Then you are in the minority. Swallow some bleach. - Trump's dea of how to deal with the coronavirus. And many did just that. Like the Trumpite who killed himself by swallowing fish tank cleaner because it contained Trump's touted hydroxychloroquine. Madness.
 
Top Bottom