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Republicans Jump Out To Historic Lead In Gallup Generic Ballot

Renae

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Gallup's generic polling shows the number of voters saying that they would vote for Republicans rising three points from last week, while the number saying they will vote for Democrats dropped four points. The 49%-43% lead for the Republicans is the largest that the pollster has ever recorded for the party. Moreover, Democratic enthusiasm for voting this fall fell a point, while enthusiasm among Republicans stayed about fifteen points higher. This indicates an even wider lead for Republicans once Gallup imposes a likely voter screen this fall.

There's any number of reasons for this: the public's perception of Obama's response to the oil spill, the shaky stock market performance last week, continued concern about the economy and spending. The bottom line is that, despite what is perceived as an underperformance for the Republicans in PA-12 a couple of weeks ago, there are still plenty of Democrats in trouble for this November.
Republicans Jump Out To Historic Lead In Gallup Generic

Damn son, Gallup even shows the GOP marching towards a giant rebuke of all things Obama. This is good news indeed for America.
 

disneydude

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And what will your excuse be when these big gains that you are expecting fail to materialize in November?......
 

Black_Zawisza

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And what will your excuse be when these big gains that you are expecting fail to materialize in November?......
Precisely why do you think so? It isn't much of a logical leap to say that after reading the OP when you haven't provided any evidence to back up your position. :roll:
 

ScottD

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I hope they don't relax yet, it's not won until the seats are filled....
I hope they do relax. I like whos in those seats already.
 

Dittohead not!

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And when the voters put the Republicans back in power in the Congress, what will change? The voters didn't like the Republican Congress a few years ago, so the Democrats won big. The voters still don't like what is happening in Washington, so the Republicans might win power back again. But, what will really change?

Will the new government be able to balance the budget, put a satisfactory end to the wars in the ME, reduce our appetite for drugs, put a stop to illegal immigration, get us closer to energy independence, or bring down the cost of health care?

When a party, any party has a realistic plan to do any or all of the above, then it's time to become partisan. Until then, it's just a changing of the guard, bringing on political rhetoric, which will be simply leaping and hooting, full of sound and fury but signifying nothing.

Which is what I expect to happen in the next couple of elections.
 

Southern Man

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The end is near for Obama and the Democrats. On the first Wednesday in November there will be many excuses made by The One, and wailing by Lib-Tards everywhere. Oh, the joy!
 

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Excerpted from “Anti-Democratic Party or Anti-Incumbent?” Posted by Jeff Jones, Gallup Editor, 2010 CENTRAL BY FRANK NEWPORT, JEFF JONES, AND LYDIA SAAD, at 1:40 PM
[SIZE="+2"]O[/SIZE]ur current generic ballot numbers and other indicators suggest that 2010 could be a rough year for the Democrats. But I’m not sure what we are seeing is as much anti-Democratic Party as it is anti-incumbent. From our data, we know that favorable ratings of the Democratic Party, approval ratings of the Democratic Party in Congress, and identification with the Democratic Party are all down from recent times, but they are also no worse than what we are presently finding for the Republican Party.
Seems like the political well has been poisoned for all the parties.
 

MCS117

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Seems like the political well has been poisoned for all the parties.
I'm afraid to say this, but this just means that there are too many RINOs as well. For at least the past couple of years, government spending and powers has increased and increased into the wrong sectors. Last I recalled, the Constitution said to "promote the general welfare" and not "provide" for us. Less government spending and meddling is a plus in my books.
 

jujuman13

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Posted by Mrvicchio (Republicans Jump Out To Historic Lead In Gallup Generic

Damn son, Gallup even shows the GOP marching towards a giant rebuke of all things Obama. This is good news indeed for America.)

As one or two other posters responding to this thread have so sensibly pointed out, what is the point of see-sawing between Republicans and Democrats when the actual problem is with the posteriors that fill these seats.

For far too many years now, America has had one or the other lot in overall control of the house, the first lot make a mess of things (according to the Media & the Electorate) and come the next election are voted out of office, to be replaced by the opposing party, who then go on to make their mess of Governance.

Until this type of situation changes, there will will be no difference in the way America is governed.

As I see it serving the American people in any elected office should be viewed as an honor by those who are elected, instead it is patently seen by many such representatives (be they Senators or Representatives) as a gravy train to riches not only for them but also their families.

The main problem with (Primarily) the American system is that a posterior having been elected more than once tends to then go on to make a lifelong career within whatever office they are elected to serve.

TERM LIMITS should be brought in for every office requiring an election.
 

Deuce

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How accurate are generics, historically, for predicting this sort of thing? A president is one thing, but we're talking about individual races. They all come down to the candidates. The GOP has a lot of ground to gain if they are to have a decent chance of regaining a majority in the Senate. (and a supermajority is impossible) I'm not as familiar with the House situation, there's just too damned many to track.
 

Dittohead not!

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TERM LIMITS should be brought in for every office requiring an election.
Absolutely! Political office should be a limited term of public service, not a career, and those holding that office should have as their only guide what is best for the country, not what it takes to get reelected, what is best for the party, or what the special interest money wants to buy.

But, the reality is far from that utopia.
 

RightinNYC

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How accurate are generics, historically, for predicting this sort of thing? A president is one thing, but we're talking about individual races. They all come down to the candidates. The GOP has a lot of ground to gain if they are to have a decent chance of regaining a majority in the Senate. (and a supermajority is impossible) I'm not as familiar with the House situation, there's just too damned many to track.
Here's a pretty cool tool. It doesn't use historical data from generic ballot v. actual result, but takes the 2008 vote differential and lets you plug in generic ballot numbers.

House of Representatives Swingometer - UnlikelyVoter.com

Gallup has some historical data:

Generic Ballot Provides Clues for 2010 Vote

The 49%-43% number isn't a two-party figure, but we can do some rough estimates from that.

2008 was a 55-45 two party split, so if we ended up with a 47-53 split this year, according to the swingometer that would translate into a 45 seat Republican gain, giving them control of the house 223-212. According to Gallup, that would translate into 227-208 control for the Reps.

I'd be very surprised if it actually ends up like that.
 

Deuce

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Here's a pretty cool tool. It doesn't use historical data from generic ballot v. actual result, but takes the 2008 vote differential and lets you plug in generic ballot numbers.

House of Representatives Swingometer - UnlikelyVoter.com

Gallup has some historical data:

Generic Ballot Provides Clues for 2010 Vote

The 49%-43% number isn't a two-party figure, but we can do some rough estimates from that.

2008 was a 55-45 two party split, so if we ended up with a 47-53 split this year, according to the swingometer that would translate into a 45 seat Republican gain, giving them control of the house 223-212. According to Gallup, that would translate into 227-208 control for the Reps.

I'd be very surprised if it actually ends up like that.
My completely uneducated prediction is a small minority for the Democratic party in the Senate and a near-tie in the House, I'll go with in favor of the GOP because I'm a pessimist. A split congress, which at this stage of the game will be utterly incapable of passing even basic legislation!
 

zimmer

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Were you around in 1994?
The press just about had a collective heart attack then. R's didn't lose a Governorship, or seat in Congress.
HillaryCare was the bitter pill... and it spawned the era of bitterness.
After 40-years of almost absolute control of Congress, Dems were no used to losing power.

Now we have ObamaCare... and incompetence we haven't witnessed since Carter.
We have had terror attacks, and enemies ramping up.
We have a WH occupant that shoots the race card first, not knowing the facts, and has to wipe egg from his face.
We have a guy that can read a teleprompteur, but in a presidential presser sucked so bad even Libs commented on his lousy performance.
We have a guy who treats our enemies as friends and friends as enemies.
His idea of presidential gifts to our biggest ally is a set of DVD's.
His AG calls us cowards.
He targets private individuals.... AIG... and they lived in fear for their safety.
He says America shows arrogance... but he didn't have the class to honor our warriors at Arlington?
He's spent like a drunken Marxist.
GM.
Unemployment is 10%.
He said he would be transparent, but we have Sestak lingering for months.
Gulf of Mexico... or golf in Mexico? Where is his leadership?
Illegal aliens... he sides with Mehiko... calling the AZ law misguided.

That's a short list of his accomplishments.

He is incompetent and Americans have come to realize it.

.
 
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samsmart

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Were you around in 1994?
The press just about had a collective heart attack then. R's didn't lose a Governorship, or seat in Congress.
HillaryCare was the bitter pill... and it spawned the era of bitterness.
After 40-years of almost absolute control of Congress, Dems were no used to losing power.

Now we have ObamaCare... and incompetence we haven't witnessed since Carter.
We have had terror attacks, and enemies ramping up.
We have a WH occupant that shoots the race card first, not knowing the facts, and has to wipe egg from his face.
We have a guy that can read a teleprompteur, but in a presidential presser sucked so bad even Libs commented on his lousy performance.
We have a guy who treats our enemies as friends and friends as enemies.
His idea of presidential gifts to our biggest ally is a set of DVD's.
His AG calls us cowards.
He targets private individuals.... AIG... and they lived in fear for their safety.
He says America shows arrogance... but he didn't have the class to honor our warriors at Arlington?
He's spent like a drunken Marxist.
GM.
Unemployment is 10%.
He said he would be transparent, but we have Sestak lingering for months.
Gulf of Mexico... or golf in Mexico? Where is his leadership?
Illegal aliens... he sides with Mehiko... calling the AZ law misguided.

That's a short list of his accomplishments.

He is incompetent and Americans have come to realize it.

.
And yet the GOP cannot give us an alternative who would do any better.
 

zimmer

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And yet the GOP cannot give us an alternative who would do any better.
For Presidential politics we need to restrict voting for our candidates to registered Republicans only in the primaries..

McCain (RINO) won, by his own admission the night he captured the R nomination, with the help of independents and Libs.

Just think, we're only 18-months from the first primaries.

.
 
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Dittohead not!

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And yet the GOP cannot give us an alternative who would do any better.
And yet, no they can't. Does anyone seriously think things would have been better under President McCain?

Or even much different for that matter?

Where do they have open primaries? In California, only Republicans can vote for the Republican candidate in the primaries, which is the only reason I don't register independent or Libertarian.
 

samsmart

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For Presidential politics we need to restrict voting for our candidates to registered Republicans only in the primaries..

McCain (RINO) won, by his own admission the night he captured the R nomination, with the help of independents and Libs.

Just think, we're only 18-months from the first primaries.

.
So you think that by restricting the primary to only Republicans, you'll win over independents and liberals in the general Presidential election?
 

Renae

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So you think that by restricting the primary to only Republicans, you'll win over independents and liberals in the general Presidential election?
And another McCain would help us?
 

Spaceman_Spiff

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For Presidential politics we need to restrict voting for our candidates to registered Republicans only in the primaries..

McCain (RINO) won, by his own admission the night he captured the R nomination, with the help of independents and Libs.

Just think, we're only 18-months from the first primaries.

.
Here is a list of all open Republican Party primaries/caucuses: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Massachusetts (semi-open), Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire (semi-open), New Jersey (semi-open), North Carolina (semi-open), North Dakota, Ohio, Rhode Island (semi-open), South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and finally Wisconsin.

The bolded states are those that can be described as liberal, while the rest are either swing states or solidly conservative. The ten states I bolded account for 386 total delegates of a total 2,171 delegates. While having all closed primaries may help I don't think they make nearly as much of a difference as you give them credit for.

The bigger problem with the Republican Party primaries is that most of them are some form of winner take all. Because of this the will of the primary voter will not be properly represented. An example of this hindering the Republican nomination process is the 2008 California primary. Even though John McCain only received 42% of the total he received 155 of a total 170 delegates. Despite not even winning a majority of the votes in California McCain received about 90% of the delegates. This problem can be seen in other states such as New York, Florida, Missouri, and New Jersey, which all carry large delegate counts and use statewide WTA.

This problem is only compounded for Republicans when a majority of the larger states are more moderate/liberal leaning. Given that a more moderate candidate will have a better chance to win plurality in these states, it then also gives them a better chance to clinch the nomination. Thus you end up with a candidate like John McCain rather than a "true" conservative like what conservatives want. Until Republicans do something to fix this problem I have no doubts that "moderates' will continue to represent them.
 

samsmart

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And another McCain would help us?
Well, what you're effectively saying is that the American people voted for a liberal President because the Republican candidate wasn't conservative enough. Why would the American people choose a liberal President if they want more conservative policies?
 

Phantom

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Just my observation, but I think Obama was elected for his more Libertarian leaning positions on social issues. People were also getting tired of hearing a guy try to say "The fundimentals of our economy are strong" with a straight face while Wall Street pops the anxiety pills. It could also have something to do with the opinion polls related to Iraq. Public opinion polls still show to this day that Americans are not in favor of the Iraq war... But I guess those war polls don't really matter when you are a Republican.
 
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