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Republicans hit all time highs in both Rasmussen and Gallup generic ballot

Grim17

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The November blood bath for Democrats is getting closer and closer to becoming a reality.

First Rasmussen:

Republican candidates have jumped out to a record-setting 12-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, August 15, 2010. This is the biggest lead the GOP has held in over a decade of Rasmussen Reports surveying.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 48% of Likely Voters would vote for their district's Republican congressional candidate, while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. Support for Republicans is up two points from the previous week, while support for Democrats dropped three points.Republicans have led on the Generic Congressional Ballot since June of last year, and their lead hasn’t fallen below five points since the beginning of December. Three times this year, they've posted a 10-point lead. Prior to this survey, GOP support since June 2009 has ranged from 41% to 47%. Support for Democrats in the same period has run from 35% to 40%.
Then there's these charts from Gallup, where Republicans hit an all time 60 year high:

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The November blood bath for Democrats is getting closer and closer to becoming a reality.

First Rasmussen:



Then there's these charts from Gallup, where Republicans hit an all time 60 year high:

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I've already proved in another thread that taking the Senate back is not plausible. But, unlike every other Republican, Independent, and Conservative Democrat I have asked, could you tell me how Republicans will take back a majority in either house?
 

MaggieD

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I've already proved in another thread that taking the Senate back is not plausible. But, unlike every other Republican, Independent, and Conservative Democrat I have asked, could you tell me how Republicans will take back a majority in either house?
Link to where you proved it?
 

Dav

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50-43 for GOP on Gallup is some really big news, especially since it's a "registered voter" poll that inherently favors Democrats. Likely voters lean even more Republican... hence, Rasmussen's 12-point lead.


At this point it would take a huge view-shifting event for Democrats to not lose the House. The GOP now has the biggest lead in 60 years of polling - even bigger than 1994 and 2002. That's just not something that flips backwards in 2 and a half months. Maybe their lead can get smaller, but to lose their lead entirely would be unprecedented.
 

RightinNYC

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I've already proved in another thread that taking the Senate back is not plausible. But, unlike every other Republican, Independent, and Conservative Democrat I have asked, could you tell me how Republicans will take back a majority in either house?
Nate Silver put it at about a 17% probability. Can you explain how your analysis is more accurate than his?

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Forecast, 7/18: Republican Outlook Improves with Focus on Likely Voter Polls
 
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Harshaw

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I don't feel like digging it up but I'll give you some links that show Dems keeping the majority. Election 2010: Senate Balance Of Power - Rasmussen Reports™
CQ Politics | Senate Race Ratings Map for 2010
That link doesn't really help your case that it's "not plausible." It shows there's still some hill left to climb, but it certainly seems "plausible" to me. Particularly considering that in 2006, even hours into election returns being reported, it was still not expected that the Democrats would take the Senate. But they did.
 
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That link doesn't really help your case that it's "not plausible." It shows there's still some hill left to climb, but it certainly seems "plausible" to me. Particularly considering that in 2006, even hours into election returns being reported, it was still not expected that the Democrats would take the Senate. But they did.
What seats will Republicans take then?
 

Harshaw

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What seats will Republicans take then?
I'd say they've got a reasonable shot at the four "lean Democrat" states there -- Nevada, Washington, California, and Connecticut. I'm not saying they will definitely win them, only that it's "plausible."
 

RightinNYC

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Can you explain where I said my view is more accurate than his? And he supports my view in case you didn't notice.
You: "Taking the Senate back is not plausible."
Silver: "There's a 17% chance the Republicans will take back the Senate."

How does that support your view?
 
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