Republican lead in House shrinks again as voters see high-stakes contest — CBS News Battleground Tracker

[Chomsky]

The Republicans have a lead. But it keeps shrinking.

While they're still in a very good position to capture a House majority, that majority looks narrower today than it ever has, having ticked down for the second straight month to 223 seats in our model estimate. Republicans were at 226 in August and 230 in July.

Republican lead in House shrinks again as voters see high-stakes contest — CBS News Battleground Tracker

Voters say rights and freedoms are on the ballot, along with finances and the economy.

www.cbsnews.com

--

Another slip by the GOP this month, and it does seem things have been getting a bit closer than I realized. A 6 seat projected majority is not a lot, and is well within the margin of error.

For the first time, I'm thinking the House may actually be in play! I definitely wouldn't bet on it, but if it remained Dem I would no longer be extremely surprised. Surprised, yes. But no longer shocked.

We shall see . . .

 

[iguanaman]

View attachment 67414985

Republican lead in House shrinks again as voters see high-stakes contest — CBS News Battleground Tracker

Voters say rights and freedoms are on the ballot, along with finances and the economy.

www.cbsnews.com

--

Another slip by the GOP this month, and it does seem things have been getting a bit closer than I realized. A 6 seat projected majority is not a lot, and is well within the margin of error.

For the first time, I'm thinking the House may actually be in play! I definitely wouldn't bet on it, but if it remained Dem I would no longer be extremely surprised. Surprised, yes. But no longer shocked.

We shall see . . .

Those that want Trump to go away must realize that a vote for any Republican is a vote to bring Trump back into power. It is even possible that if the MAGA GOP regains a majority they will make Trump Speaker of the House. Think about what a nightmare that would be. Remember that they will deny that is a possibility all the way up to the election too. I think it is very possibly what will happen. Trump wants back in power and being 3rd in line for President is as close as he can get.

 

[Razoo]

NONETHELESS no matter what the polls say voters must turnout in extremely large numbers to take back America.

And a sizable number of $5 donations will be helpful

 

[Chomsky]

Those that want Trump to go away must realize that a vote for any Republican is a vote to bring Trump back into power. It is even possible that if the MAGA GOP regains a majority they will make Trump Speaker of the House. Think about what a nightmare that would be.

It's ingenious, though. Give Trump Pelosi's job, since it's essentially a GOP appointed position, then run the more nationally palatable DeSantis for the White House, where he's more likely to win than Trump.

Only problem is will Trump want to be second fiddle, and under the Senate & DeSantis or Biden's thumb? I think not!

Remember that they will deny that is a possibility all the way up to the election too. I think it is very possibly what will happen. Trump wants back in power and being 3rd in line for President is as close as he can get.

Don't see Trump acquiescing to this. There a ton of money he can scam between Jan '23 & Nov '24. And he's going to need it with Letisha James on him like glue.

 

[Captain Adverse]

View attachment 67414985

Republican lead in House shrinks again as voters see high-stakes contest — CBS News Battleground Tracker

Voters say rights and freedoms are on the ballot, along with finances and the economy.

www.cbsnews.com

--

Another slip by the GOP this month, and it does seem things have been getting a bit closer than I realized. A 6 seat projected majority is not a lot, and is well within the margin of error.

For the first time, I'm thinking the House may actually be in play! I definitely wouldn't bet on it, but if it remained Dem I would no longer be extremely surprised. Surprised, yes. But no longer shocked.

We shall see . . .

No offense but CBS is not a "neutral source" currently, and hasn't been for quite some time.

So, while I still expect the Republicans to retake the House, I'll wait until the actual election, and see what really occurs.

Even with a "6 -10 seat lead," it still gives control over all committee chairmanships as well as appointments to Republicans and opens up their ability to "shift" investigations in ways the current Democrat Majority would be very concerned about facing.

 

[iguanaman]

It's ingenious, though. Give Trump Pelosi's job, since it's essentially a GOP appointed position, then run the more nationally palatable DeSantis for the White House, where he's more likely to win than Trump.

Only problem is will Trump want to be second fiddle, and under the Senate & DeSantis or Biden's thumb? I think not!



Don't see Trump acquiescing to this. There a ton of money he can scam between Jan '23 & Nov '24. And he's going to need it with Letisha James on him like glue.

I believe he will see the Speaker job as making him immune from Federal indictment and he may be right. It won't stop him from running for President either.

 

[Chomsky]

No offense but CBS is not a "neutral source" currently, and hasn't been for quite some time.

That's rather dismissive. I posted a (just breaking) poll, not an opinion piece. The only reason I didn't post in Breaking News was due to my not wanting to clutter BN with a poll - rather than more appropriate "hard news".

CBS Polling is considered accurate, reputable, & well regarded, receiving an A- rating from 538.com

Pollster Ratings - CBS News/The New York Times

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodology of each firm’s polls.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

So, while I still expect the Republicans to retake the House, I'll wait until the actual election, and see what really occurs.

Even with a "6 -10 seat lead," it still gives control over all committee chairmanships as well as appointments to Republicans and opens up their ability to "shift" investigations in ways the current Democrat Majority would be very concerned about facing.

My point with the +6 GOP prediction was to demonstrate the polling was within the margin of error (+/- 13), therefore it seems the House possibly could be in play. I'm not sure how you extrapolated that to mean I was negating the ramifications of the changing of majority.

 

[Chomsky]

I believe he will see the Speaker job as making him immune from Federal indictment and he may be right. It won't stop him from running for President either.

Do you have a cite for that?

 

[iguanaman]

No offense but CBS is not a "neutral source" currently, and hasn't been for quite some time.

So, while I still expect the Republicans to retake the House, I'll wait until the actual election, and see what really occurs.

Even with a "6 -10 seat lead," it still gives control over all committee chairmanships as well as appointments to Republicans and opens up their ability to "shift" investigations in ways the current Democrat Majority would be very concerned about facing.

Democrats will be concerned if the sham investigations that are promised prevent the Govt. from doing the business of the people which of course is their goal. We can definitely expect more Benghazi like "show trials", Biden impeachment votes and probably more votes to repeal the ACA too. Anything except legislation to deal with our real problems is the rule with MAGA. It's all about retribution for their enemies which is the MAGA way.

 

[iguanaman]

Do you have a cite for that?

Has a sitting Speaker of the House ever been indicted? Nope. That will be enough for Trump.

 

[Captain Adverse]

That's rather dismissive. I posted a (just breaking) poll, not an opinion piece. The only reason I didn't post in Breaking News was due to my not wanting to clutter BN with a poll - rather than more appropriate "hard news".

CBS Polling is considered accurate, reputable, & well regarded, receiving an A- rating from 538.com

Pollster Ratings - CBS News/The New York Times

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodology of each firm’s polls.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Yes, I saw the 538 rating. I choose to exert my personal bias and not fully agree with it. (It still shows a left-bias, although a small one).

My point with the +6 GOP prediction was to demonstrate the polling was within the margin of error (+/- 13), therefore it seems the House possibly could be in play. I'm not sure how you extrapolated that to mean I was negating the ramifications of the changing of majority.

I see. Hmmm. Well there are currently 233 Democrats in the House. For Republicans to go from 202 get to 223, that would be a gain of 21 seats.

Well I will wait and see. As I said, even if your prediction of 6 - 10 happens, it still switches control of the House and all Committee appointments to the Republicans. That would lead to some significant goal changes within that body.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed, but still blame this mostly on Democrat election interference (the donation thing).

 

[Helix]

If the Democrats can't win using the radicalization of the Republican party and the transformation of the SCOTUS into the Republican enforcement wing, the party needs a reboot.

 

[Chomsky]

Has a sitting Speaker of the House ever been indicted? Nope. That will be enough for Trump.

Haha! We'll see. It wouldn't be the first tactical political error he's made.

 

[Chomsky]

Yes, I saw the 538 rating. I choose to exert my personal bias and not fully agree with it. (It still shows a left-bias, although a small one).

Haha! Alright, fair enough!

I see. Hmmm. Well there are currently 233 Democrats in the House. For Republicans to go from 202 get to 223, that would be a gain of 21 seats.

I believe these numbers may be inaccurate.

The current make-up is:

D = 221 R = 212 (with 2 vacancies - death)

435 total seats. Majority is 218. Repubs need 6.

Don't make this harder for your side than it is!

Reference:

117th United States Congress - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Well I will wait and see. As I said, even if your prediction of 6 - 10 happens, it still switches control of the House and all Committee appointments to the Republicans. That would lead to some significant goal changes within that body.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed, but still blame this mostly on Democrat election interference (the donation thing).

This is the problem with Citizen's United, but then again you can't stop free speech. Open primaries also allow this cross-over voting, too. But since the primaries are predominately open, I suppose you could argue Dem voters are indeed voting for the primary candidate they prefer!

 

[Buckeyes85]

If the Democrats can't win using the radicalization of the Republican party and the transformation of the SCOTUS into the Republican enforcement wing, the party needs a reboot.

I don't know about that.
You are obviously well aware of the tendency for the country to shift the opposite direction in the first mid term after the white house changes party hands. Moreover, whether the republicans deserve any credit for economic metrics during Trump, and whether or not the democrats deserve any blame for negative metrics under Biden, many American voters are simplistic in their approach to such things. The hurdle of high inflation and losses in the stock market can't be ignored.

 

[Helix]

I don't know about that.
You are obviously well aware of the tendency for the country to shift the opposite direction in the first mid term after the white house changes party hands. Moreover, whether the republicans deserve any credit for economic metrics during Trump, and whether or not the democrats deserve any blame for negative metrics under Biden, many American voters are simplistic in their approach to such things. The hurdle of high inflation and losses in the stock market can't be ignored.

Yes, I'm aware. However, this time, a Republican SCOTUS has rescinded a right, and a Republican congress would take it even farther. Add in that Tweety stole top secret documents and hid them in his pool house for whatever reason, and you'd think that stuff like that would outweigh the, "Oh, the first term president is a Democrat? We have to vote Republican!" thing. If not, it's at least something to work with.

 

[Captain Adverse]

Yes, I'm aware. However, this time, a Republican SCOTUS has rescinded a right,

Simply because it was never an enumerated right, and instead a "right" created by a truly activist Court.

and a Republican congress would take it even farther.

Perhaps, perhaps not. I agree with the current SCOTUS ruling that it should be up to the States. I don't see how Congress could pass any law that would prohibit a State-sanctioned right per the SCOTUS decision. All they might be able to do is deny Medicaid funding for abortions.

However, if the people really want abortion to be legalized, then they should act to compel their State legislatures to change State law.

Add in that Tweety stole top secret documents

That is hyperbole and has yet to be shown. So until it is this is a red herring.

and hid them in his pool house for whatever reason,

Did not "hide" anything. More hyperbole.

and you'd think that stuff like that would outweigh the, "Oh, the first term president is a Democrat? We have to vote Republican!" thing. If not, it's at least something to work with.

None of this follows from your points made.

What is more likely the point is that regardless of Party, people will vote in the Mid-Terms to switch Party control of Congress if they think the Party in power is messing up. That would be true if the Republicans were in power too.

 

[Helix]

Simply because it was never an enumerated right, and instead a "right" created by a truly activist Court.



Perhaps, perhaps not. I agree with the current SCOTUS ruling that it should be up to the States. I don't see how Congress could pass any law that would prohibit a State-sanctioned right per the SCOTUS decision. All they might be able to do is deny Medicaid funding for abortions.

However, if the people really want abortion to be legalized, then compel their State legislatures to change State law.



That is hyperbole and has yet to be shown. So until it is this is a red herring.



Did not "hide" anything. More hyperbole.



None of this follows from your points made.

What is more likely the point is that regardless of Party, people will vote in the Mid-Terms to switch Party control of Congress if they think the Party in power is messing up. That would be true if the Republicans were in power too.

Enjoy a custom reality if you want.

 

[Gateman_Wen]

View attachment 67414985

Republican lead in House shrinks again as voters see high-stakes contest — CBS News Battleground Tracker

Voters say rights and freedoms are on the ballot, along with finances and the economy.

www.cbsnews.com

--

Another slip by the GOP this month, and it does seem things have been getting a bit closer than I realized. A 6 seat projected majority is not a lot, and is well within the margin of error.

For the first time, I'm thinking the House may actually be in play! I definitely wouldn't bet on it, but if it remained Dem I would no longer be extremely surprised. Surprised, yes. But no longer shocked.

We shall see . . .

That puts it within the margin of error.

Their lead is effectively gone.

 

[Gateman_Wen]

No offense but CBS is not a "neutral source" currently, and hasn't been for quite some time.

So, while I still expect the Republicans to retake the House, I'll wait until the actual election, and see what really occurs.

Even with a "6 -10 seat lead," it still gives control over all committee chairmanships as well as appointments to Republicans and opens up their ability to "shift" investigations in ways the current Democrat Majority would be very concerned about facing.

Just because they don't suck tRump dick you're gonna claim they're biased?


Please.

 

[Gateman_Wen]

Those that want Trump to go away must realize that a vote for any Republican is a vote to bring Trump back into power. It is even possible that if the MAGA GOP regains a majority they will make Trump Speaker of the House. Think about what a nightmare that would be. Remember that they will deny that is a possibility all the way up to the election too. I think it is very possibly what will happen. Trump wants back in power and being 3rd in line for President is as close as he can get.

I don't think there is any real possibility there.

 

[Captain Adverse]

Enjoy a custom reality if you want.

Always have to make the response "personal" when you have no other argument?

Tagline time.

 

[multivita-man]

Yes, I'm aware. However, this time, a Republican SCOTUS has rescinded a right, and a Republican congress would take it even farther. Add in that Tweety stole top secret documents and hid them in his pool house for whatever reason, and you'd think that stuff like that would outweigh the, "Oh, the first term president is a Democrat? We have to vote Republican!" thing. If not, it's at least something to work with.

I think it would take a miracle - everything going right for Ds and everything going wrong for Rs - for the Ds to keep the House, and it comes down to gerrymandering.

 

[Rawley]

View attachment 67414985

Republican lead in House shrinks again as voters see high-stakes contest — CBS News Battleground Tracker

Voters say rights and freedoms are on the ballot, along with finances and the economy.

www.cbsnews.com

--

Another slip by the GOP this month, and it does seem things have been getting a bit closer than I realized. A 6 seat projected majority is not a lot, and is well within the margin of error.

For the first time, I'm thinking the House may actually be in play! I definitely wouldn't bet on it, but if it remained Dem I would no longer be extremely surprised. Surprised, yes. But no longer shocked.

We shall see . . .

Good luck with that.

 

[Rawley]

Yes, I'm aware. However, this time, a Republican SCOTUS has rescinded a right, and a Republican congress would take it even farther. Add in that Tweety stole top secret documents and hid them in his pool house for whatever reason, and you'd think that stuff like that would outweigh the, "Oh, the first term president is a Democrat? We have to vote Republican!" thing. If not, it's at least something to work with.

LOL So Jim Crow laws were rights. I guess that's one way to look at it.