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Redistricting 44 states completed, 6 left

Redistricting Status as of 23 Feb 2022

PART I STATES COMPLETED REDISTRICTING

44 states have completed their redistricting, 6 more remaining. The democrats have a 19-seat redistricting/gerrymandering edge so far. 14 new Democratic districts added, minus 5 Republican districts. We now have 368 newly drawn districts; 67 districts remain to be redrawn.

Out of the 368 newly drawn districts, there are 35 competitive, switchable districts. Currently held by 23 Democrats and 12 Republicans. Safe seats as of 23 Feb 2022, 175 Democratic, 158 Republican.

The below listed states are in litigation over their new maps. How these lawsuits turnout will probably change the above listed safe and competitive seats. Listed also is which state legislature drew the maps being challenged.


Georgia – Republican legislature

Maryland – Democratic legislature

Nevada – Democratic legislature

New Mexico – Democratic legislature

New York – Democratic legislature

Texas – Republican legislature


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PART II Safe Seat/Competitive seat watch

As of 23 Feb, the Democrats have 175 safe seats to 158 safe Republican seats. A 17-seat Democratic advantage. There are 6 states remaining who haven’t completed their redistricting which will change the above.

The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive column a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 43 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 60. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 6 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column. The 6 remaining states are New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri and Wisconsin.

In short to remain in control of the House, the Democrats need 43 seats above their safe seat number. The Republicans need 60 above their safe seat number to take control of the house. 35 seats are in the competitive/switchable column, 23 Democratic, 12 Republican along with 67 more districts to be redrawn in which to obtain those seats from.

With 42 states in the books, it’s far from a guarantee that the Republicans regain control of the house. With Republican states of Ohio, Florida, Louisiana and Missouri left, those states will certainly narrow the 17-safe seat margin the Democrats have today. There are also the swing states of New Hampshire and Wisconsin left. No Democratic states. I’ll update this as the pending states complete their redistricting.
 
That's a shot! NOT.
 
For anyone who is interested in before & afters...

 
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