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Record month again March 2016

Re: How bad it's gotten

View attachment 67200560

You don't introduce a bias to eliminate a bias.

That cartoon is like a fantasy for deniers. Wonder where the data comes from?

Even better, who are these guys who 'prepared the chart'?

About Long Range Weather and Harris-Mann Climatology

Cliff Harris of Harris-Mann ClimatologyClimatologist Cliff Harris has been often rated as one of the top ten climatologists in the world for nearly 4 decades. Cliff Harris' long-range weather forecasts have been used by high-ranking government officials and quoted in USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, The Wall Street Digest, Farm Journal, Top Producer, Successful Farming, Futures Magazine, The Boston Globe and many other publications. He also provides several weekly local and national radio weather broadcasts to various stations throughout the country. As one of the partners of Harris-Mann Climatology, Cliff provides daily weather updates to hundreds of subscribers through DTN, Farm Dayta, the Internet and various local media. His weather and commodity forecasting success rate is approximately 75% and he accurately predicted the current prolonged cycle of global weather "extremes" in 1966. Since age 11, he has compiled nearly 100 weather scrapbooks that detail major events throughout the U.S. and the world on a daily basis. Cliff operates a weather station in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho and writes a popular weekly column called 'Gems' for the Coeur d'Alene Press. He has been quoted in CNN and "Not by FIRE, but by ICE" by Robert W. Felix. Cliff and his wife Sharon have been married for over 50 years and have 2 children, 3 grandchildren and 2 toy poodles.

Randy Mann of Harris-Mann ClimatologyMeteorologist Randy Mann has been recognized by the American Meteorological Society since 1988. He attended the University of California, Davis, San Francisco State University and graduated from California State University, Sacramento. As a partner of Harris-Mann Climatology, he provides some of the daily weather information, computer graphics and maintenance for the company. Randy has also had an extensive background in television and radio weather production, and has provided on-air television and radio weather forecasts in Tacoma, Washington, Sacramento, California, and the Burlington, Vermont/Plattsburgh, New York area. He currently provides occasional on-air weather forecasts for KREM-2 in Spokane, Washington and is currently the Chief Meteorologist for the Coeur d'Alene Press weather page and weekly weather column writer for the Spokesman Review. He currently teaches Physical Geography at North Idaho College in Coeur d'Alene. In the past decade, Randy has also designed other weather-related publications that include two North Idaho weather calendars, the International Traveler's Weather Guide, Tom Loffman's Sacramento Weather Guide, the Vermont Town and Weather Almanac (7 Editions), the award-winning 1997 Frederick County Weather Almanac and the 1998, 1999, Year 2000 and the 2001 Frederick County Weather Almanacs. He has been married to his wife Sally for nearly 25 years.

Never heard of a 'top rated climatologist' who literally has almost no other citations on the web, and apparently thinks his scrapbooking is relevant to paleoclimatogy.

As for the weatherman, I'm sure he knows how to use a green screen and read weather in under three minutes on TV really well.

Their website, of course, is a whole list of false denier memes, like 'arctic ice is actualy getting thicker!', and 'The Northern US is cooling'.
 
Re: How bad it's gotten

That cartoon is like a fantasy for deniers. Wonder where the data comes from?

Even better, who are these guys who 'prepared the chart'?



Never heard of a 'top rated climatologist' who literally has almost no other citations on the web, and apparently thinks his scrapbooking is relevant to paleoclimatogy.

As for the weatherman, I'm sure he knows how to use a green screen and read weather in under three minutes on TV really well.

Their website, of course, is a whole list of false denier memes, like 'arctic ice is actualy getting thicker!', and 'The Northern US is cooling'.

How'd you find your way back here again?
And just to flounder around some more?
Did someone call you?

"Holocene Temperature Distribution: Based on comparison of the instrumental record of global temperature change with the distribution of Holocene global average temperatures from our paleo-reconstruction, we find that the decade 2000-2009 has probably not exceeded the warmest temperatures of the early Holocene, but is warmer than ~75% of all temperatures during the Holocene. In contrast, the decade 1900-1909 was cooler than~95% of the Holocene. Therefore, we conclude that global temperature has risen from near the coldest to the warmest levels of the Holocene in the past century. Further, we compare the Holocene paleotemperature distribution with published temperature projections for 2100 CE, and find that these projections exceed the range of Holocene global average temperatures under all plausible emissions scenarios.
Our study used projections of future temperature published in the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007,..."
 
Re: How bad it's gotten

What's your recommendation? Leave a known bias in the data? Or correct the data to remove the bias?
Well the answer would depend on if correcting the bias would add more error than it corrects.
In the case of the GISS the June 2015 correction, their "correction" increased the
Standard Deviation, of the 1979-2014 data set from .1895 C to .1911C.
So did they remove a bias, or just increase the noise?
 
Re: How bad it's gotten

How'd you find your way back here again?
And just to flounder around some more?
Did someone call you?

"Holocene Temperature Distribution: Based on comparison of the instrumental record of global temperature change with the distribution of Holocene global average temperatures from our paleo-reconstruction, we find that the decade 2000-2009 has probably not exceeded the warmest temperatures of the early Holocene, but is warmer than ~75% of all temperatures during the Holocene. In contrast, the decade 1900-1909 was cooler than~95% of the Holocene. Therefore, we conclude that global temperature has risen from near the coldest to the warmest levels of the Holocene in the past century. Further, we compare the Holocene paleotemperature distribution with published temperature projections for 2100 CE, and find that these projections exceed the range of Holocene global average temperatures under all plausible emissions scenarios.
Our study used projections of future temperature published in the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007,..."

Yes, we know you can cut and paste.

And avoid direct critique.
 
Re: How bad it's gotten

Well the answer would depend on if correcting the bias would add more error than it corrects.
"Error" being determined by "whether it agrees with my political beliefs or not"? Yeah, that's really scientific.

In the case of the GISS the June 2015 correction, their "correction" increased the Standard Deviation, of the 1979-2014 data set from .1895 C to .1911C.
So did they remove a bias, or just increase the noise?

They removed bias. If you have evidence otherwise, present it. Otherwise, you've got no case. Which we both know is true.
 
Re: How bad it's gotten

Yes, we know you can cut and paste.

And avoid direct critique.

Your critiques are always ...
(1) claims about denier blogs and then
(2) a tromping on your own narration when you find out it's not and then
(3) change the subject

That's you're MO and everyone knows it.
 
Re: How bad it's gotten

"Error" being determined by "whether it agrees with my political beliefs or not"? Yeah, that's really scientific.



They removed bias. If you have evidence otherwise, present it. Otherwise, you've got no case. Which we both know is true.
The data does not have a political belief, it does however have a Standard Deviation,
which generally does not improve your data by making it larger.
Speaking of bias, what kind of bias, do you think they removed?
 
Re: How bad it's gotten

The data does not have a political belief, it does however have a Standard Deviation,
which generally does not improve your data by making it larger.

You've been misinformed by the Ayatollahs of Denierstan. Again. Why do you still trust those guys?

Speaking of bias, what kind of bias, do you think they removed?

Time of observation, station moves, instrument replacement, urban heat island, changes in measurement technique. Anything non-climatological.
 
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Re: How bad it's gotten

You've been misinformed by the Ayatollahs of Denierstan. Again. Why do you still trust those guys?



Time of observation, station moves, instrument replacement, urban heat island, changes in measurement technique. Anything non-climatological.

Remember- in one thread they will tell you all the station siting is wrong and the data is unreliable, while in another thread they'll argue that all the data has been manipulated because they fixed these problems!
 
Re: How bad it's gotten

You've been misinformed by the Ayatollahs of Denierstan. Again. Why do you still trust those guys?
The GISS data sets old and new both came directly from their site,
and excel did the Standard Deviation =STDEV.P(B2:B38). So no misinformation, the Standard Deviation
of the GISS data for that period did increase with their last "correction"!


Time of observation, station moves, instrument replacement, urban heat island, changes in measurement technique. Anything non-climatological.
Since the GISS themselves admit they do not have a standard measurement technique.
Data.GISS: GISTEMP ? The Elusive Absolute Surface Air Temperature
Q. What do we mean by daily mean SAT?
A. Again, there is no universally accepted correct answer. Should we note the temperature every 6 hours and report the mean, should we do it every 2 hours, hourly, have a machine record it every second, or simply take the average of the highest and lowest temperature of the day? On some days the various methods may lead to drastically different results.
One should ask what they are standardizing it to?
Any correction for heat island effect should be down, not up.
Linearity between old and new instrument, should be handled at that station,
with the calibration being traceable to the (NIST).
As to the station moves, here is a fun one, look at NOAA station location map,
You will have to select "Annual Summaries", click on a few stations.
You will quickly note many have been around for decades, so they are not moving stations often.
 
Re: How bad it's gotten

You've been misinformed by the Ayatollahs of Denierstan. Again. Why do you still trust those guys?



Time of observation, station moves, instrument replacement, urban heat island, changes in measurement technique. Anything non-climatological.

Remember- in one thread they will tell you all the station siting is wrong and the data is unreliable, while in another thread they'll argue that all the data has been manipulated because they fixed these problems!

Emmett Rensin The smug style in American liberalism

The smug style says to itself, Yeah. I really am one of the few thinking people in this country, aren’t I?
Ridicule is the most effective political tactic.
Ridicule is especially effective when it’s personal and about expressing open disdain for stupid, bad people.
You can’t be legitimate if you’re the butt of our jokes.
The working class left the Democrats over the last fifty years and the core of Democrat intellectual “centre of gravity” shifted to universities, media and elite enclaves. Rensin argues that the professionals can’t figure out why they couldn’t convince their old worker buddies to follow them. Rather than self analysis, or coming up with a better argument, they took the easy road, blame those who didn’t “get” their wisdom and called them stupid.
Finding comfort in the notion that their former allies were disdainful, hapless rubes, smug liberals created a culture animated by that contempt. The rubes noticed and replied in kind. The result is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Financial incentive compounded this tendency — there is money, after all, in reassuring the bitter. Over 20 years, an industry arose to cater to the smug style. It began in humor, and culminated for a time in The Daily Show, a program that more than any other thing advanced the idea that liberal orthodoxy was a kind of educated savvy and that its opponents were, before anything else, stupid. The smug liberal found relief in ridiculing them.
Smugness is a perfect circle. Once a person has decided that all their opponents are terminally stupid, all their arguments are “therefore” wrong, no discussion needed:
The smug style created a feedback loop. If the trouble with conservatives was ignorance, then the liberal impulse was to correct it. When such corrections failed, disdain followed after it.
The smug can’t lose. If a conservative was won over, the smug was right. If a conservative was not won over, the conservative was stupid (and the smug was therefore also right about the conservative being stupid). Geddit?
– And if cheap, bullying tactics of mockery “converted” someone, it’s pure genius right?
Rensin talks about “Good Facts” — pointing out that the Smug seem to feel they are not tainted by ideology. Without saying it Rensin is describing people who think they are scientific, logical and armed with “The Science”:
It is the smug style’s first premise: a politics defined by a command of the Correct Facts and signaled by an allegiance to the Correct Culture. A politics that is just the politics of smart people in command of Good Facts. A politics that insists it has no ideology at all, only facts. No moral convictions, only charts, the kind that keep them from “imposing their morals” like the bad guys do.
He has the insight to recognise the act of “knowing” the Good Facts, is a form of virtue signaling :
Keep reading →
 
Re: How bad it's gotten

Emmett Rensin The smug style in American liberalism

The smug style says to itself, Yeah. I really am one of the few thinking people in this country, aren’t I?
Ridicule is the most effective political tactic.
Ridicule is especially effective when it’s personal and about expressing open disdain for stupid, bad people.
You can’t be legitimate if you’re the butt of our jokes.
The working class left the Democrats over the last fifty years and the core of Democrat intellectual “centre of gravity” shifted to universities, media and elite enclaves. Rensin argues that the professionals can’t figure out why they couldn’t convince their old worker buddies to follow them. Rather than self analysis, or coming up with a better argument, they took the easy road, blame those who didn’t “get” their wisdom and called them stupid.
Finding comfort in the notion that their former allies were disdainful, hapless rubes, smug liberals created a culture animated by that contempt. The rubes noticed and replied in kind. The result is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Financial incentive compounded this tendency — there is money, after all, in reassuring the bitter. Over 20 years, an industry arose to cater to the smug style. It began in humor, and culminated for a time in The Daily Show, a program that more than any other thing advanced the idea that liberal orthodoxy was a kind of educated savvy and that its opponents were, before anything else, stupid. The smug liberal found relief in ridiculing them.
Smugness is a perfect circle. Once a person has decided that all their opponents are terminally stupid, all their arguments are “therefore” wrong, no discussion needed:
The smug style created a feedback loop. If the trouble with conservatives was ignorance, then the liberal impulse was to correct it. When such corrections failed, disdain followed after it.
The smug can’t lose. If a conservative was won over, the smug was right. If a conservative was not won over, the conservative was stupid (and the smug was therefore also right about the conservative being stupid). Geddit?
– And if cheap, bullying tactics of mockery “converted” someone, it’s pure genius right?
Rensin talks about “Good Facts” — pointing out that the Smug seem to feel they are not tainted by ideology. Without saying it Rensin is describing people who think they are scientific, logical and armed with “The Science”:
It is the smug style’s first premise: a politics defined by a command of the Correct Facts and signaled by an allegiance to the Correct Culture. A politics that is just the politics of smart people in command of Good Facts. A politics that insists it has no ideology at all, only facts. No moral convictions, only charts, the kind that keep them from “imposing their morals” like the bad guys do.
He has the insight to recognise the act of “knowing” the Good Facts, is a form of virtue signaling :
Keep reading →

It is the liberal man's burden!:mrgreen:

As I mentioned on another thread about AGW, but it applies to many subjects, the most confrontational of people on any given subject simply know the least about the subject.
A corollary is that subject knowledge is in inverse proportion to the degree of "cheap, bullying tactics of mockery" used.
And we can name names.
 
Re: How bad it's gotten

As I mentioned on another thread about AGW, but it applies to many subjects, the most confrontational of people on any given subject simply know the least about the subject.
A corollary is that subject knowledge is in inverse proportion to the degree of "cheap, bullying tactics of mockery" used.
And we can name names.

Yet one person here keeps harping on a paleoclimate study from 18 years ago, seemingly ignoring the plethora of studies that have been done supporting it in last decade, with iron clad verification that the 'hockey stick' - present temperatures are higher and rising at a more rapid rate than ever in the last few thousand years (if not the last 20,000 years).

Simple, basic reviews of paleoclimate take this as a given, with quotes such as this:
"The experiment we are doing right now is pretty much unprecedented in Earth's history," he said. "These changes in the Pliocene and the [ice ages] took place over a million years, and we are changing the planet now on time scales of hundreds of years."
yet totally untrained amateurs insist that they are wrong, based upon some misinterpreted stolen emails and blogs from sketchily qualified writers..

Seems to me that may be deserving of mockery.
 
Re: How bad it's gotten

Yet one person here keeps harping on a paleoclimate study from 18 years ago, seemingly ignoring the plethora of studies that have been done supporting it in last decade, with iron clad verification that the 'hockey stick' - present temperatures are higher and rising at a more rapid rate than ever in the last few thousand years (if not the last 20,000 years).

Simple, basic reviews of paleoclimate take this as a given, with quotes such as this:

yet totally untrained amateurs insist that they are wrong, based upon some misinterpreted stolen emails and blogs from sketchily qualified writers..

Seems to me that may be deserving of mockery.

I take it you're referring to Gayathri Vaidyanathan.
 
Re: How bad it's gotten

Dont know her blog.

But I think you know full well who I'm referring to.

Well, she does seem to be overwhelmingly agenda driven to the point that she's compelled to show disagreement any time she deigns to mention even mild criticism of the Climate Bible she follow.
That's not Journalism, although that's her actual profession ... not climate science.
You usually rail against such things even for far more qualified writers of Climate Science.
 
Re: How bad it's gotten

Well, she does seem to be overwhelmingly agenda driven to the point that she's compelled to show disagreement any time she deigns to mention even mild criticism of the Climate Bible she follow.
That's not Journalism, although that's her actual profession ... not climate science.
You usually rail against such things even for far more qualified writers of Climate Science.

Ah, I see. Diversion, as usual.
 
Re: How bad it's gotten

". . . I expect average cooling to continue throughout the year as El Nino weakens and is replaced with La Nina, now expected by mid-summer or early fall. Nevertheless, 2016 could still end up as a record warm year in the satellite record…it all depends upon how fast the warmth from the El Nino dissipates and La Nina sets in. . . ."

Climate data
UAH V6 Global Temperature Update for April, 2016: +0.71 deg. C

From Dr. Roy Spencer The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2016 is +0.71 deg. C, down slightly from the March value of +0.73 deg. C (click for full size version): The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 16 months are: YEAR…
 
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