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Being scientifically skeptical about the idea that added CO2 can cause catastrophic warming, makes me look for inconsistencies.
There was a follow on study about the lab between CO2 emissions and maximum warming that caught my attention.
The time lag between a carbon dioxide emission and maximum warming increases with the size of the emission
The graph shows the time between emission and maximum warming for 3 different pulse sizes 100 GtC, 1000 GtC, and 5000 GtC.
with the simulations run on one of the GCM models and run out to 1000 years.
The starting CO2 level was 389 ppm, with 100 GtC pulse increasing the CO2 level to 436 ppm,
the 1000 GtC pulse increasing the CO2 level to 859 ppm,
and the 5000 GtC pluse increasing the CO2 level to 2736 ppm.
The Y axes scale is K per 1000 GtC, so the 2 for 100 GtC becomes 0.2C of maximum warming , and the ~1.5C for 5000 GtC becomes 7.5C,
The 1000 GtC is the sacle on the graph at ~1.78C
Normalizing the responses to 2XCO2 provides VERY different sensitivities.
The smaller 47 ppm pulse has a 2XCO2 sensitivity of 1.21 C,
The mid range 470 ppm pulse has a 2XCO2 sensitivity of 1.55C,
while the high 2736 ppm pulse has a 2XCO2 sensitivity of 2.66C
The inconsistency is that the sensitivity should be about the same if the simulation is run out to 1000 years.
ECS being a 2XCO2 or a 4XCO2 pulse, would produce a higher sensitivity.
Also what dose this mean for actual CO2 step increases which average 2.5 ppm per year?
Based on the trend , The normal increases in the CO2 level of 2.5 ppm per year, would have an even lower
sensitivity than the smallest 47 ppm pulse!
There was a follow on study about the lab between CO2 emissions and maximum warming that caught my attention.
The time lag between a carbon dioxide emission and maximum warming increases with the size of the emission
The graph shows the time between emission and maximum warming for 3 different pulse sizes 100 GtC, 1000 GtC, and 5000 GtC.
with the simulations run on one of the GCM models and run out to 1000 years.
The starting CO2 level was 389 ppm, with 100 GtC pulse increasing the CO2 level to 436 ppm,
the 1000 GtC pulse increasing the CO2 level to 859 ppm,
and the 5000 GtC pluse increasing the CO2 level to 2736 ppm.
The Y axes scale is K per 1000 GtC, so the 2 for 100 GtC becomes 0.2C of maximum warming , and the ~1.5C for 5000 GtC becomes 7.5C,
The 1000 GtC is the sacle on the graph at ~1.78C
Normalizing the responses to 2XCO2 provides VERY different sensitivities.
The smaller 47 ppm pulse has a 2XCO2 sensitivity of 1.21 C,
The mid range 470 ppm pulse has a 2XCO2 sensitivity of 1.55C,
while the high 2736 ppm pulse has a 2XCO2 sensitivity of 2.66C
The inconsistency is that the sensitivity should be about the same if the simulation is run out to 1000 years.
ECS being a 2XCO2 or a 4XCO2 pulse, would produce a higher sensitivity.
Also what dose this mean for actual CO2 step increases which average 2.5 ppm per year?
Based on the trend , The normal increases in the CO2 level of 2.5 ppm per year, would have an even lower
sensitivity than the smallest 47 ppm pulse!